2024 USA Today 301 Expert Picks, Preview: Updated NASCAR Betting Odds with Elliott on Pole

Christopher Bell is the favorite to win Sunday by the USA Today 301 odds, as we offer our USA Today 301 picks based on the best NASCAR odds for New Hampshire Motor Speedway from our best sports betting sites with Chase Elliott on pole.

At long last, reigning Cup Series champion Ryan Blaney finally reached victory lane last week in Iowa. But he isn't the favorite to win Sunday's USA Today 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, which starts at 2:06 p.m. ET on USA Network.

Instead, Christopher Bell is the favorite across our best sportsbooks after winning in Charlotte and following that with three straight top-10 finishes. He's dealing ahead of fellow Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Martin Truex Jr., whose last win came at New Hampshire in 2023 ahead of a winless start to this 2024 campaign. Meanwhile, Chase Elliott is on pole after rain canceled qualifying.

Those three will have to fend off Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin - the current favorites by the NASCAR Cup Series championship odds - and a whole host of former champions and hungry drivers entering Sunday's race.

Here's a look at the updated USA Today 301 odds, favorites, and our picks to win:

Odds to win 2024 USA Today 301

Pre-qualifying odds as of Sunday at 9:45 a.m. ET.

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New Hampshire Motor Speedway track analysis

This track, affectionately known as the "Magic Mile," is actually a tick longer than that at 1.058 miles. It has very minimal banking on the corners (2-7 degrees) and a tough-on-tires surface that hasn't been repaved in almost two decades.

The result is a short, flat track that can prove unwieldy for inexperienced drivers who aren't adept at maintaining speeds through tight corners and managing tire wear. There's a reason why former Cup Series champions won 13 of the last 16 races at New Hampshire, with longtime veteran Denny Hamlin (2017) among the exceptions.

That skill and experience gap could be exacerbated this weekend with Goodyear testing out a new tire setup meant to increase fall-off on lap times. If they're successful, that would place an extra premium on those with sound pit strategy who can successfully manage tire wear and preserve fuel for this 318-mile race - especially with rain in the forecast.

Weather forecast for USA Today 301

One issue facing drivers this weekend is a looming storm over New Hampshire Motor Speedway that could threaten to delay or even postpone Sunday's race.

As of Thursday, the weather forecast via AccuWeather.com called for a 61% chance of rain and a 37% chance of thunderstorms on raceday - likely in the afternoon with a chance of storms in the evening, too. The area has already been hit by thunderstorms in the days leading up to the race, which isn't a great sign for Sunday's schedule.

This race was postponed by a day last year, though the chances of precipitation (91%) and thunderstorms (55%) are even higher on Monday. Keep an eye on the weather report ahead of this race in case it does get postponed.

USA Today 301 predictions, race preview

Picks made Thursday at 8:30 p.m. ET prior to practice or qualifying. Odds listed here may vary from current prices.

After Martin Truex Jr. (+500) announced his retirement last week, he's clearly the driver to watch at the site of his last win in 2023.

The reigning winner has led 426 laps in two races here in the Next Gen car with over 110 laps led in six of his last 10 starts at New Hampshire. He's clearly the best driver yet to reach victory lane this season, and this could be his best chance to score his first win of 2024 and perhaps the last of his career.

That said, he's still dealing at longer odds than Christopher Bell (+450), who won here in 2022 and has spent 84.1% of his four starts at this track running in the top 15 - the most by anyone in the Cup Series. He's dominated short, flat tracks like this one, and I love his chances of scoring a top-three finish (+140).

As great as those two have been, Denny Hamlin (+600) has three wins at this track - tied for the most by any active driver - and boasts the best average finish (9.4) of anyone in the field. Like Bell, he's a machine on short tracks and has 12 straight top-15 finishes at New Hampshire, including two runners-up and a win in 2017.

I fully expect one of those three to come out victorious on Sunday, which is why my favorite bet of this race is Toyota to win (+100). That prop bet includes those three favorites along with five others - including dark-horse contenders Ty Gibbs (+2000), Tyler Reddick (+2200), and Bubba Wallace (+4500) - all for the price of one.

Really, this is a bet on Joe Gibbs Racing, which is dealing as short as -120 to win this race even with JGR manufacturer Toyota priced at even money. (Let this serve as another reminder that it always pays to shop around to find the best prices and best sportsbook promos in the ultra-competitive betting market.)

JGR has finished first or second in this race in 11 of the last 12 years, having won five times and each of the last two years with a record 13 wins overall at New Hampshire. Let that sink in for a minute. Such a level of dominance at any track is hard to ignore, and it's why I'll be mostly fading the field in favor of that prop bet.

If you're looking for a longer shot, Chase Elliott (+1400) has been the best qualifier in 10 races at New Hampshire and quietly enters this weekend as the NASCAR points leader (591) after top-five finishes at Iowa and Sonoma. Three of his seven top-fives this year have come on short, flat tracks like this one, and he finished second behind Bell in this very race in 2022.

It also feels like those aforementioned +2200 odds are too long for Reddick, who is included in the Toyota prop but is a juicy bet in the outright market, too.

The 23XI Racing driver ranks in the top five among active drivers in average starting position (10) and finishing position (12.5) at New Hampshire. He's done well on tracks like this one so far, and if this race trends toward chaos with wet weather and tire fall-off, that could help the ever-aggressive Reddick as a long shot.

USA Today 301 expert picks to win

Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best sports betting apps.

• Christopher Bell (+450 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
• Chase Elliott (+1400 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
• Tyler Reddick (+2200 via Caesars) ⭐⭐

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USA Today 301 props, best bets for Sunday

• Toyota to win (+100 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Christopher Bell top three (+140 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
• Chase Elliott top five (+250 via bet365) ⭐⭐
• Tyler Reddick top 10 (-125 via bet365) ⭐⭐

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Past USA Today 301 winners

How to watch USA Today 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway

• Date: Sunday, June 23 at 2:06 p.m. ET
• Track: New Hampshire Motor Speedway (Loundon, N.H.)
• Length: 1.058 miles (301 laps, 318 total miles)
• How to watch: USA Network
• Defending winner: Martin Truex Jr. (+500 via DraftKings)

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