U.S. Presidential Election Odds 2028: Vance the Favorite in Prediction Markets

Donald Trump is now nearly one year into the first year of his second term, and as the 2026 midterms loom, the attention will slowly start to drift toward the presidential election odds and prediction markets like Kalshi for 2028.

Vice President J.D. Vance remains well out in front, just as he has since the market opened shortly after the 2024 election. However, the Democrats are beginning to pick themselves up after a resounding defeat, and California Governor Gavin Newsom has been rising. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez lurks too on the progressive left, and Pete Buttigieg is an established figure with campaign experience.

📊 United States presidential election odds for 2028

Here are the percentage chances of winning the 2028 election, via Kalshi.

Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.

A few thoughts and observations:

• Vance has remained relatively steady as the front-runner, with his chances even increasing slightly in recent weeks
• There was a more sizable gap to the rest of the field in the fall when Newsom was getting +1400 implied betting odds, but now he's surged all the way to +426
• The most recent peak for Newsom's chances came in late August, when the implied odds sat at +330
• Elsewhere on the Republican side, Marco Rubio has risen significantly, moving from being off the board just a few months ago to now alone in third, and well ahead of AOC
• The Stephen A. Smith presidential election odds generated plenty of buzz over the summer, but he's now being given less than a 1% chance through Kalshi.

💪 U.S. Presidential election 2028 favorite

JD Vance (27%)

Vance is the no-brainer favorite due to his position as second in command, which is why any Vice President would likely receive similar implied odds at this point.

But it runs deeper than that with Vance.

Trump has taken over the Republican party, a process that began when he descended the golden escalator in 2015, and it never really stopped even when he took political defeats. His approach is now firmly entrenched, with many moderates in the party like Mitt Romney long gone.

Therefore, heading into the 2028 campaign, there will surely be a desire among many to fortify Trumpism as the leader departs politics. Vance was chosen to be Trump's running mate partly because of his ability to be that torchbearer, albeit with often a softer tone and messaging.

The other major element working in Vance's favor is his age. America is fresh off an election in which the original two candidates—Trump and Biden—were both aging greatly. Biden was the oldest-ever sitting president, and Trump is now the oldest to ever be elected.

Vance is just 41 years old, meaning he'll still be well shy of even Kamala Harris' age (60) come Election Day in 2028.

👀 United States presidential election 2028 candidate to watch

Pete Buttigieg (4%)

Buttigieg already ran for the presidency ahead of the 2020 election, when he was just 38 years old and the mayor of South Bend, Ind.

A combination of his age and lack of high-level political experience meant his candidacy wasn't taken seriously at first during the Democratic primaries. But he soon did surprisingly well considering those factors, earning 26 delegates and 17% of the vote before dropping out on March 2 and endorsing Biden.

He's still young for a politician while now 42. And Buttigieg spent four years gaining significant experience while working in the Biden administration as the secretary of transportation.

Perhaps even more critically as Democrats start to jostle for position ahead of the midterms, Buttigieg has already been maneuvering to make himself one of the next president's leading critics. He was often appearing on Fox News early during Trump's second term to present rebuttals to Conservative talking points.

If he can keep it going, the momentum from that could serve him well when the next election cycle truly ramps up.

However, the movement away from the establishment on the left is working against Buttigieg, particularly given the rise of democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani after he easily sat atop the NYC mayor election odds before becoming the city's next mayor.

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🗳️ United States presidential election previous winners

Odds among the top candidates move frequently right up until voting day in November of an election year.

But bettors should remember that the favorite has won in 26 of the last 31 presidential elections. That includes Trump in 2024, though in 2016 he was a significant underdog to Hillary Clinton, and that night went sideways quickly for the Democrats.

❓ U.S. presidential election FAQs

Who is the favorite for the 2028 U.S. election?

Vice president JD Vance is the early favorite for the 2028 election while getting +270 implied odds. That leads to an implied win probability of 27.03%.

Who won the previous U.S. presidential election?

Donald Trump became the 47th President of the United States after defeating Kamala Harris in the 2024 election. Harris became his opponent after Joe Biden dropped out on June 21, 2024.

When is the 2028 U.S. presidential election?

The next day Americans will go to the polls to vote for a president is Nov. 7, 2028.

When will the candidates for the 2028 U.S. presidential election be decided?

Trump will not be permitted to run again after reaching the end of his second and final term. Both parties will hold primaries, which will begin early in 2028. How long that process will take to decide the likely nominees is difficult to project. But favorites often begin to emerge early in the spring, and especially after Super Tuesday in March.

Where will the U.S. presidential election decided?

Candidates will campaign for office in several cities and states until November 2028. Ultimately, voters decided who will be the President of the United States at polling booths across the country.

How to watch the U.S. presidential election

Every major news outlet covers the results of the 2028 United States presidential election.