US Open Predictions & Betting Odds 2025: Our Expert Picks at Flushing Meadows

For the first time ever, the fourth Grand Slam of the tennis season will begin on a Sunday as we offer our 2025 US Open predictions and betting odds for this weekend's tournament at Queens, N.Y.

Defending champion Jannik Sinner is a +110 favorite across the best sports betting sites entering the tournament, as he and Carlos Alcaraz look to continue dominating the men's draw after combining for seven consecutive Grand Slam titles. On the women’s side, Iga Swiatek is the favorite with as short as +240 odds coming off her Wimbledon title.

My US Open expert picks back one of the pre-tournament favorites to win based on a favorable draw - and also finds value in a +5000 long shot.

🎾 US Open expert picks 2025

Tennis picks made Saturday; odds subject to change.

✅ Men's winner: Carlos Alcaraz (+190 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Women's winner: Iga Swiatek (+260 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Best prop bet: Karen Khachanov to win Quarter 2 (+1100 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ Best long shot: Jasmine Paolini (+5000 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

💰 US Open predictions & best bets

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🏆 US Open men's pick: Carlos Alcaraz (+190) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

It wouldn’t be wise to leave both Sinner and Alcaraz out of your US Open futures portfolio given their dominance at Grand Slams for the last two-plus years. After all, they have a 52.38% implied probability to meet in the final based on DraftKings’ -110 odds.

But the difference between Alcaraz’s +190 odds - he is as short as +162 at bet365 - and Sinner’s +110 odds at FanDuel are too big to ignore.

Sinner was forced to withdraw from the mixed doubles tournament after withdrawing from the Cincinnati Open final with an illness. That sparks enough concern with this final Grand Slam being the biggest test of endurance and will in two weeks of New York’s late-summer heat and humidity.

Alcaraz faces a stern test from a former top-20 player in Reilly Opelka in the first round. But that is the sort of match that will heighten the Spaniard’s concentration from the onset, which will only benefit him the rest of the tournament.

I break down that match further in my US Open first-round predictions.

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🏆 US Open women's pick: Iga Swiatek (+260) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Swiatek is the only woman to currently have clinched a Grand Slam title in four straight years, and she's the rightful favorite despite not being the top-ranked player in the world due to what might be her easiest draw in any major this season.

No other player in Swiatek’s quarter has better than +650 odds to reach the semifinals, and some of her biggest challengers (Anna Kalinskaya and Ekaterina Alexandrova) have yet to consistently prove themselves at majors. Meanwhile, Swiatek’s confidence is sky-high after winning the Cincinnati Open - her 11th career WTA 1000 title.

BetMGM is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering better than +250 odds to back the pre-tournament favorite, and a $10 winning wager would net $25 in profits.

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🔥 Best US Open prop bet: Karen Khachanov to win Quarter 2 ⭐⭐⭐

There may not be a better value play to reach the men's semifinals than Karen Khachanov at +1100 at FanDuel - a vast difference from his +800 odds (11.11% implied probability) at BetMGM and Caesars.

Khachanov avoids the top three favorites in Sinner, Alcaraz, and Novak Djokovic, as Alexander Zverev is the highest-seeded player in his quarter. Khachanov has already faced Zverev twice this month, winning once. And the biggest obstacle on the path to the quarterfinals is Alex De Minaur, who hasn’t beaten a top-10 player this year.

🎯 Best US Open long shot pick: Jasmine Paolini (+5000) ⭐⭐

Jasmine Paolini should have much better than a 1.96% chance to win the US Open - her highest implied probability is 2.94% based on Caesars’ +3300 odds - as she has the most favorable draw of anyone in the 128-player field based on average world rankings of likely opponents.

She is coming off a finals appearance in Cincinnati where she lost to US Open favorite Swiatek. She owns the career head-to-head advantage over Elena Rybakina and would be favored over Emma Raducanu, and those two are her likeliest fourth-round opponents.

I break down her case more in my US Open long-shot picks and predictions.

📆 When does US Open 2025 start?

The US Open starts on Sunday, Aug. 24, with the women’s and men’s finals held on Sept. 6-7, respectively. Both draws have 128-player fields, and the matches will be aired on ESPN, ESPN2, and ABC from Queens, N.Y.

❓ US Open betting FAQs

Who is favored to win the US Open?

Defending champion Jannik Sinner is the +110 pre-tournament favorite on the men’s side, while Iga Swiatek (+250) has the shortest odds in the women’s draw.

Where is US Open 2025 played?

The US Open is held at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Queens, N.Y.

How do tennis odds work?

Tennis betting has similar markets to football or other popular sports in that one can wager on a player’s moneyline, game spread, or total games odds. Other popular markets are set betting and total games won for each player.

Where can I find the best tennis betting odds?

Shop around our best sportsbooks to find the best odds for your tennis picks. Our best sports betting sites for all sports include BetMGM, bet365, Caesars, FanDuel, and DraftKings.

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