UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal MMA Odds and Picks

Kyle Smith

Last Updated: September 17, 2022 11:02 AM EDT • 2 min 41 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

Former teammates turned enemies are finally set to settle the score on Saturday night when Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal square off in the main event of UFC 272. Read on for our Covington-Masvidal picks.

Potentially manufactured drama aside, this fight serves as a crossroads for both men. The winner stays in the periphery of the welterweight title picture, while the loser’s time as a contender comes to an end for the foreseeable future.

Covington heads into this showdown on the heels of a second failed attempt to defeat 170-pound champion Kamaru Usman at UFC 268 in November. “Chaos” took the pound-for-pound king to the limit for 25 minutes but ultimately couldn’t topple the champion.

Like Covington, “Gamebred” has twice failed to dethrone Usman. Masvidal lost a unanimous decision at UFC 251 in 2020 before suffering a devastating knockout loss in the main event of UFC 261. Now, who will rebound and get back into the win column on Saturday night?

Here are my Covington-Masvidal picks and predictions for UFC 272’s welterweight main event (odds via Caesars Sportsbook and Fanduel Sportsbook; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Covington vs. Masvidal Fight Info

Date/Time: Saturday, March 5, 10 p.m. ET (main card)TV: ESPN+, PPVLocation: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Covington vs. Masvidal Odds Analysis

Covington opened as a -190 favorite at most sportsbooks, and that number has only grown, now ranging from -310 to -340. If you’re looking to back the underdog, you can snatch Masvidal as high as +260 at FanDuel.

There’s not much value in betting on a Covington victory, so you should instead focus on the method of victory. Covington by decision at -105 (via FanDuel) is much better value considering five of his last six wins have gone to the judge’s scorecards.

Colby Covington Betting Profile

An excellent wrestler with a reservoir-deep gas tank, Covington’s only losses in the last six years are against Usman.

The controversial Covington has run roughshod over the rest of the welterweight division, defeating the likes of Demian Maia and Dong Hyun Kim, as well as former UFC champions Robbie Lawler, Tyron Woodley, and Rafael dos Anjos.

Covington isn’t likely to devastate his opponent with a fight-altering blow, but his volume striking, unending motor, and persistent wrestling allow him to win the war of attrition.

Jorge Masvidal Betting Profile

Once considered a journeyman who cut his teeth in the streets and boatyards of Miami, Masvidal used a series of spectacularly violent finishes to reinvent himself as one of the top 170-pounders in the promotion. Masvidal put the welterweight division on notice with a blistering knockout of Darren Till in March 2019 and followed that up with his signature performance, a five-second evisceration of Ben Askren.

Masvidal then completely overwhelmed Nate Diaz in the UFC 244 main event for the "BMF" title and was primed for a shot at the title. He's one of the best boxers in the division and can put anyone to sleep with a crisp, clean counter. Couple that with his toughness and willingness to engage in a firefight, and we have the makings of a barn burner on Saturday night.

Covington vs. Masvidal Picks

Covington to win (-310) ????Covington by points (-105) ????

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Covington vs. Masvidal Predictions

Covington (-310 via Caesars)

As satisfying as it would be for many to see Covington get buried in an avalanche of Masvidal’s strikes, it's not going to happen. “Chaos” will be more than willing to stand and exchange with Masvidal, but he’ll snatch a double-leg and drag this fight to the floor if he feels a sense of danger. He’ll dominate from top control to neutralize Masvidal’s attempts to get back to his feet.

Covington by decision (-105 via FanDuel)

The longer this five-round affair goes, the more Covington’s superior wrestling and cardio will become a factor. Barring a jaw-melting blitz from Masvidal, Covington will out-work, out-hustle, and out-wrestle his opponent for 25-minutes en route to a decision victory. It won’t put Covington immediately back in the title picture, but it’ll keep him in the conversation.

Where to Bet on UFC 272 Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook Caesars Sportsbook DraftKings Sportsbook PointsBet BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Covington-Masvidal picks made 3/2/2022 at 9:26 p.m. ET.

Written By:
Kyle Smith

A sportswriter for more than a decade, Kyle Smith was once voted “World’s 78th Greatest Lover” by ‘Relatively Attractive People Magazine’.* After covering nearly every sport under the sun for theScore, Smith settled in as head MMA writer where he helped shape the company’s coverage and establish its combat sports identity. Since then, he’s dipped his toes (cannonballed) into the world of betting, where he specializes in the UFC and NHL. Constantly chasing that gigantic Parlay Dragon, Smith was devastated when a Leon Edwards head kick completely obliterated a recent five-leg parlay. You can read his rantings and ravings on Twitter @Heldrificus. *Not a real publication.