UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic MMA Odds and Predictions

Kyle Smith

Last Updated: May 14, 2022 9:07 AM EDT • 2 min 54 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - JULY 06: Jan Blachowicz of Poland looks on after defeating Luke Rockhold of the United States by TKO in their UFC 239 Light Heavyweight bout at T-Mobile Arena on July 06, 2019 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Sean M. Haffey / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

In what’s shaping up to be a potential light heavyweight title eliminator, former champion Jan Blachowicz is set to hurl his Polish hammers at Aleksandar Rakic in the main event of UFC Vegas 54. Read on for our Blachowicz-Rakic picks and predictions.

With the winner of Blachowicz-Rakic likely receiving a title shot, the stakes are terrifyingly high on Saturday night.

Author of one of the finest second acts in MMA history, Blachowicz evolved from a reliable gatekeeper into a battle-hardened champion during his UFC tenure. After posting a pedestrian 2-4 record through his first six UFC bouts, Blachowicz went on a ridiculous 8-1 run, culminating in one of the most surprising title conquests in MMA history. He’s since dropped the belt to fellow well-traveled veteran Glover Teixeira and is itching for a championship rematch with the Brazilian grappling wizard.

Rakic’s resume may not include a UFC title or be littered with as many top-tier names, but he’s 6-1 since joining the organization in 2017 and has wins over a pair of title challengers. He’s also 9 years younger than Blachowicz and may have more than one kick at the can in regard to potential title opportunities.

Here are my picks and predictions for the UFC Fight Night light heavyweight main event between Blachowicz and Rakic (odds via Fanduel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Blachowicz vs. Rakic Fight Info

Date: Saturday, May 14, 10:00 PM ET (main card)TV: ESPN +, TSNLocation: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV

Blachowicz vs. Rakic Odds Analysis

Blachowicz is a +170 underdog at DraftKings. With a comparable skillset, decided speed advantage, and a lot less mileage, the streaking Rakic is a -198 favorite with FanDuel.

Considering his power and experience, I do see a lot of low-risk value in backing Blachowicz.

Jan Blachowicz Betting Profile

Prior to his loss to Teixeira, Blachowicz enjoyed the most fruitful era of his 15-year career, violently carving through fellow 205-pound contenders Luke Rockhold, Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza, and Corey Anderson before capturing the vacant title with a vicious TKO of Dominick Reyes. The Polish powerhouse solidified the legitimacy of his title with a triumph over middleweight kingpin Israel Adesanya in a champion vs. champion showdown at UFC 259. After a couple of relatively even rounds early, Blachowicz took over in the championship stanzas, using his superior size and strength to bully “The Last Stylebender” en route to a hard-fought unanimous-decision victory.

At 39, this may be Blachowicz’s last stand as a true title contender. He’ll look to use his excellent kicking defense, solid counterstriking, and the threat of his prodigious Polish power to keep Rakic guessing.

Aleksandar Rakic Betting Profile

One of the finest 205-pounders on the planet, the 30-year-old Rakic burst into the division’s upper echelon with consecutive decision victories over former title contenders Anthony Smith and Thiago Santos. Prior to that, “Rocket” posted an impressive 4-1 record under the UFC umbrella, racking up violent first-round stoppages of Jimi Manuwa and Devin Clark.

A well-rounded fighter with enough power to spark anyone in the division, Rakic will have the speed advantage and isn’t above transforming this bout into a plodding kickboxing match, in which he’ll attempt to grind out Blachowicz for five rounds.

Blachowicz vs. Rakic Picks

Blachowicz (+170 via DraftKings)Blachowicz by KO/TKO (+470 via FanDuel)

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Blachowicz vs. Rakic Predictions

Blachowicz (+170)

In what might devolve into a boring, light heavyweight slog, I’m expecting to see a version of Blachowicz that’s closer to the one who marched to the 205-pound title rather than the one who dropped the strap to Teixeira.

The Polish powerhouse is a more effective grappler than Rakic has faced thus far in his UFC campaign, and though he’s the slower fighter, he does hold a power advantage. In a fight that may be lax on bell-to-bell action, powerful, demonstrative striking may be enough to sway the judges.

Blachowicz by KO/TKO (+470)

Sure, an ugly decision almost feels inevitable based on the style matchup, but I’m betting on Blachowicz to unleash his old-man strength one last time. After a couple of uneventful rounds, the former champ will check Rakic’s chin a few times before completely obliterating his jaw with something nasty in the championship rounds.

Blachowicz’s championship window is closing rapidly, and he’ll earn another title shot with a dramatic win on Saturday night.

Where to Bet on UFC Picks

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Blachowicz-Rakic picks made 5/13/2022 at 9:45 p.m. ET.

Written By:
Kyle Smith

A sportswriter for more than a decade, Kyle Smith was once voted “World’s 78th Greatest Lover” by ‘Relatively Attractive People Magazine’.* After covering nearly every sport under the sun for theScore, Smith settled in as head MMA writer where he helped shape the company’s coverage and establish its combat sports identity. Since then, he’s dipped his toes (cannonballed) into the world of betting, where he specializes in the UFC and NHL. Constantly chasing that gigantic Parlay Dragon, Smith was devastated when a Leon Edwards head kick completely obliterated a recent five-leg parlay. You can read his rantings and ravings on Twitter @Heldrificus. *Not a real publication.