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UFC Best Bets Today: Top Picks for UFC Fight Night - Holm vs. Vieira

UFC Best Bets Today: Top Picks for UFC Fight Night - Holm vs. Vieira
Santiago Ponzinibbio of Argentina reacts after his split decision loss to Geoff Neal. Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images via AFP.

A pair of top-five women’s bantamweights are set to exchange violent pleasantries on Saturday night when Ketlen Vieira meets Holly Holm in the main event of UFC Fight Night. Read on for today’s best UFC bets and predictions.

The winner of Vieira-Holm will keep themselves in a relatively thin 135-pound title picture, while the loser will be forced to go back to the drawing board. The woman who completely destroyed Ronda Rousey’s mystique with a vicious shin to the jaw, Holm earned victories in each of her last 2 trips to the Octagon, triumphing via unanimous decision against fellow top-five bantamweights Irene Aldana and Raquel Pennington. 

Alternating wins and losses across four bouts dating back to December 2019, Vieira upset the apple cart against Miesha Tate in November, completely derailing the former champion’s comeback tour toward another title.

Also on the card: a welterweight showdown between Santiago Ponzinibbio and Michel Pereira, and a potential firefight featuring Chidi Njokuani and Dusko Todorovic.

With that in mind, here are our best bets for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night: Holm-Vieira card (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira Card & Odds

(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)

  • Holly Holm (-250) vs. Ketlen Vieira (+200)
  • Santiago Ponzinibbio (+115) vs. Michel Pereira (-135)
  • Chidi Njokuani (-240) vs. Dusko Todorovic (+195)
  • Eryk Anders (+165) vs. Jun Yong Park (-195)
  • Polyana Viana (+115) vs. Tabatha Ricci (-135)
  • Jailton Almeida (-600) vs. Parker Porter (+435)
  • Joseph Holmes (-195) vs. Alen Amedovski (+165)
  • Omar Morales (-145) vs. Uros Medic (+125)
  • Jonathan Martinez (-225) vs. Vince Morales (+185)
  • Chase Hooper (+155) vs. Felipe Colares (-180)
  • Elise Reed (-155) vs. Sam Hughes (+135)


UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira Best Bets

  • Fight line: Holmes to win (-190 via Caesars) ★★★★
  • Upset: Ponzinibbio to win (+115 via Draftkings) ★★★
  • Winning method: Njokuani to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+110 via Caesars) ★★★★
  • Prop bet: Holm by points (-115 via FanDuel) ★★★★
  • Parlay: Holmes (-190) + Ponzinibbio (+115) + Njokuani to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+110) = +589 (via Caesars) ★★★★

Saturday’s UFC Fight Night Top Picks

Fight line: Holmes (-190)

Although I don’t have strong feelings about Joseph Holmes as a middleweight prospect, he’ll have more than enough juice to topple Alen Amedovski. The unfortunately nicknamed “Ugly Man” should have the advantage no matter where the fight goes, and I’m expecting him to snake in a fight-ending submission at some point in the second or third stanza.

Five of Holmes’ seven victories were via submission, and when you couple that with Amedovski’s almost three-year layoff, you have a recipe for a potentially beautiful win.

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Upset: Ponzinibbio (+115)

Beneath the flash and sizzle of the highlight reel “spinning stuff,” Michel Pereira isn’t on Santiago Ponzinibbio’s level both technically and pure skill-wise. Sure, Pereira has shown growth and increased maturity during his recent four-fight win streak, but he’ll abandon that newfound maturity once Ponzinibbio starts piecing him up on the feet.

“The Argentine Dagger” will cut off the cage and pressure Pereira, not allowing him to uncork anything spectacularly devastating, and as such, will either win via a late stoppage or a hard-fought unanimous decision.

Winning method: Njokuani by KO/TKO/DQ (+110)

Sixteen seconds of pure violence. Making his official UFC debut in February, It took Njokuani a mere 16 seconds to completely run roughshod over Marc-Andre Barrriault, flooring the Canadian with a thundering right hand before sending him to the land of wind and ghosts with an unanswered volley of vicious coffin nails. He likely won’t replicate the speed of that finish against Todorovic on Saturday night, but I think the result will be the same.

A long-time Bellator veteran, Njokuani has 13 KO/TKO victories out of his 21 career wins, and he violently finished his last two opponents inside the Octagon. Todorovic is 2-2 during his UFC tenure, with one of those losses coming via TKO. I expect that to happen again, with Njokuani sparking the Serbian with something sudden and nasty.

Prop bet: Holm by points (-115)

With her prime years behind her, this just might be Holm’s last stand. That isn’t to say the former bantamweight champion will retire anytime soon, but I think her days as a viable title contender are firmly in the rearview. That said, I think Holm does enough to sneak by Vieira on Saturday.

Of course, Holm is in trouble if Vieira can drag her down to the mat and transform the bout into a grappling match, but I just don’t see that happening. Instead, I think Holm will be able to keep herself upright, where she’ll win an uninspiring, glorified kickboxing match. Four of Holm’s last five bouts went to the judges’ scorecards, and I expect it’ll happen again against Vieira.

Parlay: Holmes (-190) + Ponzinibbio (+115) + Njokuani by KO/TKO/DQ (+110) = +589

Where to Bet on UFC Fight Night

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

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UFC best bets made on 5/19/2022 at 10:32 p.m. ET.