Sun vs. Lynx Prediction: Game 5 Expert Picks & WNBA Playoffs Odds

It all comes down to this for the Connecticut Sun and Minnesota Lynx, who face off Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN2) for Game 5 of their semifinal series with a trip to the WNBA Finals on the line.

• The Lynx are favored by 2.5 points to beat the Sun across our best sportsbooks
• The Sun won Game 4 on Sunday to force this winner-take-all showdown
• We like the underdogs to steal a pivotal road win and return to the WNBA Finals

Here is a look at our Sun vs. Lynx prediction, expert picks, and WNBA odds for Tuesday's Game 5 at Target Center:

Sun vs. Lynx expert picks: Game 5

WNBA picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

• Sun +4.5 (-105 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Napheesa Collier Under 21.5 points (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Alyssa Thomas Over 32.5 pts + reb + ast (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Sun vs. Lynx prediction: Game 5

Sun +4.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐

Not only has this been a tremendous series from a pure basketball perspective, but it's lived up to the hype of playoff hoops with both sides jawing at each other and leaning into the physicality on both ends of the court.

That style of play favors the Sun, who posted the WNBA's best defensive rating (94.1) in the regular season and boast a litany of elite defenders with high-level postseason experience.

That includes do-it-all star Alyssa Thomas, who is the last person I'd want to bet against in a winner-take-all situation like this.

Sun are built for this moment

Connecticut has won five of its last seven do-or-die playoff spots like this one, including last year's Game 3 win in Minneapolis to eliminate the Lynx from the postseason.

Minnesota bounced back from a Game 1 loss in this series with two impressive wins, but the Sun dominated the paint on Sunday after struggling from beyond the arc in those two previous losses.

That shift in focus from outside to inside feels like a much more sustainable strategy for Connecticut's offense in Game 5. The bigger question is whether the Lynx can keep pace on the scoreboard or with the intensity we can expect from Game 5.

Minnesota has become particularly reliant on leading scorer Napheesa Collier, who poured in 29 points and 13 rebounds in a losing effort in Game 4. That came on the heels of a 26-point effort in Game 3.

But we've already seen how stagnant she and the Lynx offense can get when Thomas puts the clamps on the Minnesota star, and that feels like the sort of matchup that Sun coach Stephanie White can lean on in a pivotal Game 5.

Thomas has spent her entire career in Connecticut and led this group to two WNBA Finals appearances over the last five years. I love her team's chances of a third trip to that stage, and catching 4.5 points is the icing on the cake in this matchup.

Best odds: -105 via Caesars | Implied probability: 51.22%

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Sun vs. Lynx player props: Game 5

Our NEW player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any WNBA prop market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Napheesa Collier Under 21.5 points (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Collier has scored 26 or more points in each of her last two games, but the Under for this lower total is priced as short as -135 across our best sportsbooks.

That should tell you all you need to know about the market's perception of this Sun defense and what it can do in a must-win spot against Minnesota's top scorer.

Collier was held to 19 points in a Game 1 loss and just nine points in a Game 2 win. I wouldn't expect a repeat of that second performance but don't be surprised if Connecticut forces the Lynx's other players to step up in a decisive Game 5.

Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%

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Alyssa Thomas Over 32.5 pts + reb + ast (-112) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

If you were to build a team from scratch and pick one person to lead it through a do-or-die spot in the WNBA playoffs, I'm not sure there's anyone I'd want on my side more than Thomas.

The longtime Connecticut star has built her reputation on delivering in spots like this in just about every facet of the game.

She's averaging 16.2 points, 10 assists, and 8.7 rebounds this postseason - good for a combined total of 34.9 - and has finished with a combined 35 PRA in five of six playoff starts.

The Sun excelled in Game 4 using Thomas as the roller from the center position, inverting Minnesota's usually stout defense and forcing its elite interior defenders into space against one of the WNBA's best "big" ball handlers.

I'd expect a healthy dose of that in Game 5 - plus everything else that Thomas does so well as a playmaker and rebounder.

Thomas is catching +350 odds via FanDuel to record a triple-double, which she's done once in six playoff starts this year. That's worth a shot with a small wager, but I still prefer this Over at a paltry total relative to her production of late.

Best odds: -112 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.83%

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Sun vs. Lynx Game 5 odds

Sun vs. Lynx Game 5 info

• When: Tuesday, Oct. 8
• Tip-off: 8 p.m. ET
• Where: Target Center (Minneapolis)
• How to watch: ESPN2
• Favorite: Lynx -4.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

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