Redblacks vs. Alouettes Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds: Defense Reigns Supreme
The Ottawa Redblacks look to put a stop to the Montreal Alouettes undefeated start to their season when they visit their rivals on Friday, and we're offering our top Redblacks vs. Alouettes predictions based on the best CFL odds.
The Montreal Alouettes (2-0) are riding the momentum of last year's Grey Cup and have started the season impressively with two road wins. Now, the Als will play at home for their Week 3 matchup against the Ottawa Redblacks (1-0) on Thursday at 7:30 p.m. ET (TSN/RDS, CFL+).
Despite their surprising victory over the Winnipeg Blue Bombers last week, the Redblacks are 7-point underdogs at Molson Stadium in Montreal, Quebec, against the Grey Cup odds favorites. While Alouettes QB Cody Fajardo is a contender for the CFL Most Outstanding Player award odds, this matchup is expected to focus more on defense.
Here are our best Redblacks vs. Alouettes predictions for CFL Week 3.
Redblacks vs. Alouettes prediction
Odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Under 47.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
For the second straight week, Montreal's defense looked like it was ready for another Grey Cup run. The Alouettes held the Edmonton Elks to 13 points for the vast majority of the game - a touchdown with under one minute to go made the game seem much closer than it was, and it also gave Edmonton the backdoor cover. Montreal completely shut down Edmonton's rushing attack and held the Elks to just 3.4 yards per carry while harassing QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson and forcing him into mistakes.
Given the way the Alouettes defense looked against Winnipeg in Week 1 - holding the Bombers to 12 points - and against the Elks, the Redblacks could struggle to score. Ottawa put up 23 in their opener against the Blue Bombers, but for as efficient as QB Dru Brown was, the Redblacks didn't look special. Ottawa's offensive game plan appeared to be focused on ball control with former NFL RB Ryquell Armstead carrying the load. That approach should benefit the Under.
What really stood out from Bob Dyce's squad was the way the Redblacks defense rallied to the ball against Winnipeg. They essentially shut down Ottawa's run game and forced Zach Collaros to try and create through the air in rainy conditions. Both Alonzo Addae and Ardarius Pickett picked off passes, and Damon Webb looked like a breakout star.
Asking Ottawa to have a repeat performance against Montreal is a tall task, but this defense looks better than average, and it's supposed to be another rainy day. That could mean Als head coach Jason Maas will rely more heavily on Walter Fletcher than Fajardo.
I don't expect Ottawa to pull off another upset, however, I do think the elements, coupled with how well these defenses have played, will result in a lower-scoring affair. The odds imply a 52.61% probability the Under hits, according to our odds converter, with a $10 winning bet paying out $19.01.
Best odds: -111 via Betway
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Redblacks vs. Alouettes first team to score
Alouettes (-172)
In a game where I don't expect a ton of scoring, this market is hard to get a great feel for, especially with weather being a factor. Montreal has the proven veteran QB and a running back in Fletcher who was as impactful in the passing game as he was on the ground last week (143 yards from scrimmage and two TDs).
If Fajardo can get the ball in Fletcher's hands early, the Als could work their way down the field. Montreal also has the threat of Tyson Philpot and Kaion Julien-Grant - both of whom rank top 15 in the league in receiving yards. One factor to consider in Ottawa's favor is kicker Lewis Ward. Ward led the league in 50-plus-yard field goals last season with eight.
Redblacks vs. Alouettes odds
Redblacks vs. Alouettes odds via Betway as of Tuesday at 12:30 p.m. ET.
| Teams | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alouettes | -263 | -7 (-105) | Over: 47.5 (-111) |
| Redblacks | +210 | +7 (-115) | Under: 47.5 (-111) |
It's still early in the season, but Ottawa looks like they could be a lot more competitive than expected. They managed to cover against a Winnipeg team that's played in four straight Grey Cups, and Dyce looks to have flipped the culture thanks to a few offseason acquisitions. That's why I don't love the -7 spread in Montreal's favor after they failed to cover against the Elks. The Als are 1-1 ATS this year with Ottawa 1-0.
Unlike the spread, I feel good about the game total. Montreal's defense is allowing the fewest points per game in the CFL (16.0) and the second-fewest yards (336.5). Obviously it's a small sample size, but the Redblacks are second in points allowed (19.0) and first in yards allowed (327). These two defenses have impressed and neither team has hit an Over yet this season.
Redblacks vs. Alouettes game info
- When: Thursday, June 20, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Molson Stadium, Montreal, Quebec
- How to watch: TSN/RDS, CFL+
- Weather: 81 degrees, 10-mph winds, 70% chance of precipitation
- Favorite: Alouettes -7 (-105 via Betway)
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