NASCAR Betting Odds at Atlanta: Expert Picks, Predictions & Long Shots for Quaker State 400

The NASCAR playoffs begin today at 3 p.m. ET on USA Network as we examine the NASCAR odds at Atlanta Motor Speedway and offer our best 2024 Quaker State 400 expert picks, predictions, and long shots.

• Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano lead the favorites to win today's race at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
• The last race at Atlanta featured one of the closest finishes in NASCAR history, as Daniel Suarez won by 0.003 seconds to clinch a playoff spot.
• We're watching Ford's top drivers, a few long shots, and player props for today's NASCAR playoff opener.

NASCAR odds at Atlanta

(Atlanta raceday odds via our best sports betting sites as of Sunday at 1 a.m. ET.  | 🔥 = best odds | ❄️ = worst odds)

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2024 Quaker State 400 expert picks, predictions

NASCAR picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

• Ford to win (+120 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Team Penske to win (+420 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
• Ryan Blaney (+1000 via Caesars) ⭐⭐
• Joey Logano (+1000 via Caesars) ⭐⭐

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How to bet NASCAR today at Atlanta

The NASCAR playoffs typically start with a traditional intermediate track. But this year the postseason will begin at a superspeedway-style track at Atlanta Motor Speedway for the first time since the playoffs were implemented in 2004. 

While only 1.54 miles long, this oval track has a dramatic 28-degree banked and a slick surface, which has helped produce speeds approaching 200 mph since it was reconfigured for superspeedway racing in 2021.

Those conditions contribute to chaos (see: cautions) and close finishes like the one we saw in February. It also benefits pack racing, so we're targeting a drafting-friendly manufacturer and a bevy of long shots and race props to lean into the chaos.

Strength in numbers for Ford

As we saw in the spring race, when all three cars were separated by just 0.007 seconds, anything can happen at Atlanta.

That's especially true when it's the first race of the postseason, which we've never seen before. That's why I'm taking the wide view for today's race and looking to bet with numbers on my side.

While Suarez took a Chevrolet car to Victory Lane in the first race here, Ryan Blaney was 0.003 seconds behind as one of two Fords in the top four (Austin Cindric) and five Fords in the top 11. Those drivers helped the manufacturer lead 178 of 260 laps (68.5%) before that wild three-wide finish won it for Chevy.

Ford has also won each of the last two weeks, and it took the pole on Saturday for the seventh consecutive time in a superspeedway-style race.

Two expert drafters, Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano, are the only drivers with +1000 odds across all five of our best sportsbooks to win today's race at Atlanta. They are among the nine blue ovals in the top 13 in the starting grid, including each of the first five spots.

Those two veterans are my top outright picks but only merit a small wager at 10/1, while teammate Cindric (+2200) is a compelling play at longer odds. I like the chances of one of those three drivers taking it for Team Penske (+420) - or another Ford winning - in what should be a pack full of blue ovals after 260 laps (or more).

Tough start for Toyota

Saturday's qualifying results were a somber sight for Toyota, which saw all eight of its drivers finish 20th or worse. That includes Denny Hamlin, who will start 38th after an engine issue hindered a disastrous first-round lap.

Toyota had one finisher in the top nine (Bubba Wallace) in the spring race at Atlanta, and it hasn't won at this track since 2014, with limited success on other superspeedway-style tracks.

Its only win at such tracks this year came at Talladega Superspeedway when Michael McDowell - the pole-sitter for today's race - crashed around the final turn to clear the way for Tyler Reddick.

Not only does Toyota have such a tough start for its drivers after qualifying, but it has by far the fewest cars in the field on a track where chaos is unavoidable. That makes it easy for me to fade the manufacturer in my best prop bets for this race.

Will we see late chaos at Atlanta?

One of my favorite prop bets for this race comes from Caesars Sportsbook, which easily has the best wagering options for race day.

You can bet on whether this race will go to overtime, with "yes" dealing at +200 odds. That implies a 33.3% chance that today's race will extend beyond 260 laps due to a late caution, turning $10 into a $20 profit if it does.

While the first Atlanta race ended on time, six of the last nine races entering the postseason went beyond the scheduled final lap, including four of the last five and the last superspeedway race two weeks ago at Daytona.

The stakes have never been higher than they'll be for today's postseason opener, which precedes a road race and a short track before the Round of 12 cut. Don't be surprised if we see the yellow flag at some point in the final laps of this race.

NASCAR long shots today at Atlanta

Clearly, we're expecting the potential for chaos and unpredictability later today at Atlanta Motor Speedway, which makes this race ideal for betting long shots.

Austin Cindric (+2200)

As we mentioned earlier, Team Penske is well-suited for the pack racing that we'll see at Atlanta, and Cindric is dealing at longer than twice the odds of his teammates.

The No. 2 car led the second-most laps (32) at this track back in February and ultimately finished fourth - his second-best finish of the season behind a win at St. Louis. It's worth taking a shot with just a 4.35% chance by these odds.

Josh Berry (+2500)

Although he hasn't had the results to show for it, Berry has been one of the better cars in the Cup Series down the stretch, leading laps in four straight races while qualifying in the top five in six of his last eleven weeks.

He'll start fourth today and should benefit from the cavalry of Ford Mustangs around him on the starting grid. He's still looking for his first win of the season but already has two third-place finishes this year with 12 laps led at superspeedways.

Todd Gilliland (+4000)

While his teammate McDowell won the pole, Gilliland will start third and knows how to navigate to the front of big packs.

He led more laps (58) than anyone in the field in the February race at Atlanta, and he was running in the top six to close both stages at Daytona before a 23rd-place finish. He should be in the mix near the end.

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Best NASCAR long shots at Atlanta

• Austin Cindric (+2200 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
• Josh Berry (+2500 via Caesars) ⭐⭐
• Todd Gilliland (+4000 via FanDuel) ⭐

Best NASCAR prop bets at Atlanta

• Over 3.5 Fords in top 10 (-130 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Under 2.5 Toyotas in top 10 (+130 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
• Race to go to overtime (+200 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

Quaker State 400 past winners

Race was not held from 2011-2020 before the track was reconfigured in 2021. 

How to watch NASCAR at Atlanta (Quaker State 400)

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 8
• Track: Atlanta Motor Speedway
• Length: 1.54 miles (260 laps, 400 total miles)
• How to watch: USA Network
• Defending winner: William Byron

2024 Quaker State 400 picks made Sunday at 3 a.m. ET.

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