Olympic Tennis Men's Final Odds & Predictions, Aug. 4
It's a familiar final on a familiar court on an unfamiliar stage.
Generational talents at either end of their careers meet once more in the marquee match for all the marbles, as Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz will battle for Olympic gold on Sunday (8 a.m. ET).
Three of their six head-to-head encounters were in a final, while two occurred at Roland-Garros, the venue for Sunday's winner-takes-all encounter.
The only difference?
Neither megastar has played for Olympic gold. Djokovic lost three previous semifinals before finally getting over the hump against Lorenzo Musetti on Friday, while Alcaraz is in his debut Olympics.
I imagine I'm not the only one unsurprised by the Spaniard making it to the showcase match in his inaugural Olympic Games. Sunday's final also represents a rubber match of sorts, with both players taking three of six head-to-head battles.
Our Olympic tennis men's final odds and prediction offers the best bet. Alcaraz is the clear favorite across our best sports betting sites to win his third major title in 2024.
Djokovic vs. Alcaraz odds
(Odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)
| Market | Djokovic | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +190 | -200 |
| Spread | +3.5 (-140) | -3.5 (-105) |
| Over/Under | Over 22.5 (-110) | Under 22.5 (-110) |
Djokovic vs. Alcaraz prediction
Over 22.5 games ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Surely, the gold match featuring the world's two best players will eclipse the 22.5-game mark. Alcaraz wiped the floor, or should I say grass, with Djokovic the last time these two tennis demigods met less than two months ago at the final of Wimbledon.
The Serbian legend was outgunned, outmatched, and, looked his age for the first time.
On June 5, the 37-year-old went under the knife to repair a torn medial meniscus in his right knee after withdrawing from the 2024 French Open. Less than a month later, he ambled on to Centre Court at Wimbledon for his first-round match against Vít Kopřiva.
Contrary to popular belief, Djokovic is human.
And he showed it against his younger, more exuberant counterpart in the Wimbledon final. Maybe wear and tear was to blame. Maybe playing seven matches in less than two weeks after undergoing surgery was too much to ask.
Either way, I don't expect Djokovic to capitulate as he did at the All-England Club. Even if he's beaten in straight sets on Sunday, surely he'll manage to win at least 10 games. A 7-6, 6-4 Alcaraz win is feasible, but even that result would break through the 23-game barrier required to win this wager.
Djokovic required medical attention to the aforementioned knee in the quarterfinal against Stefanos Tsitsipas, a slightly disconcerting development. However, he pushed on and persevered.
Olympic gold is the only prized achievement that has thus far eluded Djokovic, and while I'm not suggesting he'll win, surely he'll make an account of himself that does his 24 Grand Slam titles justice.
The -120 odds will yield a profit of $8.33 on a winning $10 bet.
Odds: -120 | Implied probability: 54.55%
Djokovic vs. Alcaraz H2H stats
| Djokovic | Stat | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Matches won | 3 |
| 1 | Wins in straight sets | 1 |
| 10 | Sets won | 9 |
| 104 | Games won | 98 |
| 1 | Wins on clay surface | 1 |
Men's Olympic final medal match info
- When: Sunday, Aug. 4 (8 a.m. ET)
- Where: Roland-Garros (Paris, France)
- How to watch: Peacock (streaming)
- Favorite: Alcaraz (-200)
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