NYC Mayor Odds 2025: Mamdani Favorite to Win Nov. 4 New York Mayor Election
A rising young progressive stunned a more established centrist candidate in the New York City Democratic primary, with 33-year-old Zohran Mamdani beating former state governor Andrew Cuomo, and Mamdani's now the betting favorite by the 2025 New York mayor odds.
Kalshi, the only legal and regulated prediction market in America, is featuring a market tied to the upcoming New York City mayoral election on Nov. 4, 2025.
🔢 New York mayor election odds 2025
Though we saw during the most recent U.S. presidential election that there are pockets of New York City beginning to slowly lean toward the right, the city remains mostly liberal. That makes the Democratic primary especially significant, as the winner gets a clear path to the mayor's office.
Mamdani is now racing down that golden road, and the probabilities from Kalshi predictably show he's in a strong position.
If you're confident in Mamdani after his stunning primary win, and in the U.S., you can make predictions on the New York City mayoral election via Kalshi. Join now and get a $10 bonus. 18+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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🗳️ Who will be the next mayor of New York City?
Here is Kalshi's prediction market for the 2025 NYC mayoral election on November 4, with the anticipated four candidates. Use Kalshi promo code "SBR" to claim your $10 bonus:
| Candidate | Probability |
|---|---|
| Zohran Mamdani | 72% |
| Eric Adams | 24% |
| Andrew Cuomo | 5% |
| Curtis Siwa (or the Republican nominee) | 3% |
Mamdani, who ran on a highly progressive agenda that includes increasing taxes on the wealthy and making public buses free, isn't the official winner yet. However, he is the favorite by the NYC mayor odds following his primary win over Cuomo.
The vote-counting process in a rank-choice system can often take up to a week. No candidate won a majority in the first round when the first choices were counted, but Cuomo faced enough of a deficit that he conceded. Mamdani was sitting on a 43.5% vote share at that point, with Cuomo at 36.4%.
But despite being dealt a significant blow and facing a sharply rising candidate in Mamdani, Cuomo might not be done overall yet.
He won't be the Democratic nominee, but Cuomo told The New York Times that he's considering running in the Nov. 4 election as an independent candidate. It's a position the left-of-center establishment figure is suited for and the ideal path for him, though he still sits deep in the shadow of the voter enthusiasm for Mamdani.
Meanwhile, current New York City mayor Eric Adams will also be running as an independent after numerous controversies led to his loss of support from Democrats in the city. Kalshi is giving him a 24% chance to stay in office, which has risen 7% recently. Cuomo's chances plummeted 24% after his defeat.
🗽 Latest NYC mayor odds & election news
- Though it wouldn't be surprising, Cuomo hasn't committed to running as an independent yet, saying "we're going to take a look" via The Hill
- CNN called Mamdani's victory a "political earthquake," with broader implications beyond New York City as Democrats look for a guiding voice following Joe Biden's late exit as a presidential candidate, and the loss to Donald Trump that came next
- "What’s happening in NYC is a blaringly loud message to those in the Democratic establishment who still cling to old politics, recite focus-grouped talking points, and are too afraid to say what needs to be said," said Dan Pfeiffer, a former top aide to Barack Obama
When is the 2025 New York City mayoral election?
The New York City mayoral election will take place on November 4.
Who are the candidates in the 2025 New York City mayoral election?
Zohran Mamdani (Democratic nominee), Eric Adams (independent), Andrew Cuomo (independent), Curtis Sliwa (Republican), and Jim Walden (independent) are expected to run in the 2025 mayoral election.
Who is the current mayor of New York City?
Eric Adams is currently serving as the 110th mayor of New York City. He's expected to run as an independent in the 2025 election.
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