NYC Mayor Odds 2025: Mamdani Far Ahead as Betting Favorite Prior to Nov. 4 New York Mayor Election
The next New York mayoral election is now just weeks away on Nov. 4, and Democratic primary winner and fast-rising socialist Zohran Mamdani still holds a commanding lead in the 2025 New York mayor odds.
Mamdani's main challenger is former state governor Andrew Cuomo, whom he stunned during the primary earlier this summer. Cuomo is now running as an independent, but his pitch to sell his experience still doesn't seem to be gaining any traction, with the groundswell of support for Mamdani continuing to push the 33-year-old assembly member upward.
Kalshi, the only legal and regulated prediction market in America, is featuring a market tied to the upcoming New York City mayoral election.
🔢 New York mayor election odds 2025
Though we saw during the most recent U.S. presidential election there are pockets of New York City beginning to slowly lean toward the right, the city remains mostly liberal. That makes the Democratic primary especially significant, as the winner gets a clear path to the mayor's office.
Mamdani is now racing down that golden road, and the probabilities from Kalshi show he's in an increasingly strong position, with his chances of getting the highest office in the state growing throughout the summer and now into the fall.
If you're confident in Mamdani after his stunning primary win, and you are in the U.S., you can make predictions on the New York City mayoral election via Kalshi. Join now and get a $10 bonus. 18+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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🗳️ Who will be the next mayor of New York City?
Here is Kalshi's prediction market for the 2025 NYC mayoral election on Nov. 4 with the anticipated five candidates, including current mayor Eric Adams. Cuomo is now running as an independent.
Use Kalshi promo code "SBR" to claim your $10 bonus:
| Candidate | Probability |
|---|---|
| Zohran Mamdani | 83% |
| Andrew Cuomo | 16% |
| Curtis Sliwa | 1% |
| Eric Adams | Less than 1% |
| Jim Walden | Less than 1% |
Mamdani - who ran on a highly progressive agenda that includes increasing taxes on the wealthy and making public buses free - has already beaten Cuomo once, though at the time surprisingly, while easily cruising to a victory during the Democratic primary earlier this summer.
It was a delayed triumph of sorts, with the vote-counting process in a ranked-choice system often taking a week or so. But in the end, Mamdani soared past his more experienced rival while taking 56% of the vote to Cuomo's 44%.
Cuomo announced he'll resume his mayoral run soon after, but this time as an independent, though the former New York governor is still a candidate far more to the center compared to Mamdani and his socialist agenda.
Included in that agenda is now targeting FIFA ahead of the 2026 World Cup, which will be held jointly in the United States, Canada, and Mexico.
Mamdani is highly opposing the dynamic pricing for tickets to World Cup matches, a system that allows for cost adjustments based on factors like supply and demand. Consequently, a ticket that costs $60 on the low end for group stage matches is likely to increase even further.
"I have long been quite troubled by how the supposed stewards of the game have opted for profit time and time again at the expense of the people that love this game,” said Mamdani, via The Guardian. “And I think what is stunning to me is these demands that we are putting forward, they are just demands that go back to what (FIFA) has done in previous World Cups.
"And yet what they are seeing with the World Cup here in the United States, Mexico, and Canada is the prospect of increasing their revenues up close to 400% compared to what they were in Qatar.”
Elsewhere, there was much discussion throughout the summer about what Mamdani's rise means for a Democratic party searching for its new de facto leader - or perhaps a fresh identity while picking up the pieces after Donald Trump took the White House again in last year's presidential election.
Some of that chatter, like a recent column in The Hill, wonders if Mamdani and his far-left policies represent too large of a risk for Democrats. However, the percentages at Kalshi show increasing momentum, with the chances of Mamdani reaching office spiking from 72% in late June to 83% by mid-September. Cuomo, his closest challenger, is miles back at 16%, up only mildly from 5% about two months ago.
That gargantuan lead is shown in polling, too. Mamdani's advantage has grown to a mammoth 59% in a recent Quinnipiac poll, with Cuomo far back at 23%. Adams, who has been tied to various corruption charges, sits way down at 11%.
New York will almost certainly be getting a new mayor on Nov. 7, and current projections from both Kalshi and polling indicate Mamdani's meteoric ascension is set to continue.
🗽 Latest NYC mayor odds & election news
- Shortly after New York state governor Kathy Hochul endorsed Mamdani, President Donald Trump threatened to withhold federal funding from the city if the latter wins the election, according to The New Republic
- Cuomo is aiming for a boost from Trump, hoping the president tells his dedicated followers that voting for him is the only way to stop Mamdani, according to Politico.
- Former president Barack Obama called Mamdani to congratulate him after his primary win, with the key Democratic figure offering advice about governing and giving people hope during a dark time, according to MSNBC.
- CNN called Mamdani's victory a "political earthquake," with broader implications beyond New York City as Democrats look for a guiding voice following Joe Biden's late exit as a presidential candidate, and the loss to Trump that came next
- "What’s happening in NYC is a blaringly loud message to those in the Democratic establishment who still cling to old politics, recite focus-grouped talking points, and are too afraid to say what needs to be said," said Dan Pfeiffer, a former top aide to Barack Obama
❓ NYC mayor odds FAQs
When is the 2025 New York City mayoral election?
The New York City mayoral election will take place on Nov. 4.
Who are the candidates in the 2025 New York City mayoral election?
Zohran Mamdani (Democratic nominee), Eric Adams (independent), Andrew Cuomo (independent), Curtis Sliwa (Republican), and Jim Walden (independent) are expected to run in the 2025 mayoral election.
Who is the current mayor of New York City?
Eric Adams is currently serving as the 110th mayor of New York City. He's expected to run as an independent in the 2025 election.
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