2025 NASCAR Predictions at Watkins Glen Today: Go Bowling at the Glen Odds, Expert Picks & Best Props

Shane Van Gisbergen is the runaway betting favorite, according to the best sports betting sites, as we offer our NASCAR predictions and odds for Watkins Glen. 

Today's race starts at 2 p.m. ET (USA Network), and our predictions below feature five picks, including a five-star prop tied to Chris Buescher. 

📊 2025 NASCAR odds & favorites at Watkins Glen

Here are the latest Go Bowling at the Glen odds and favorites for Watkins Glen at BetMGM after qualifying on Saturday.

🥇 Go Bowling at the Glen betting favorites 🥇

Odds updated as of 6 a.m. ET on Sunday, Aug. 10 

• Shane van Gisbergen, -125 ($10 to win $8)
• William Byron, +800 ($10 to win $80)
• Connor Zilisch, +850 ($10 to win $85)
• Christopher Bell, +1600 ($10 to win $160)
• Michael McDowell, +1600 ($10 to win $160)
• Chase Briscoe, +1600 ($10 to win $160)
• Kyle Busch, +1800 ($10 to win $180)
• Ross Chastain, +2000 ($10 to win $200)
• Kyle Larson, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
• Chris Buescher, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
• Ryan Blaney, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
• Chase Elliott, +3000 ($10 to win $300)
• AJ Allmendinger, +3000 ($10 to win $300)
• Alex Bowman, +3000 ($10 to win $300)
• Carson Hocevar, +3000 ($10 to win $300)

Claim our BetMGM bonus code, SBRBONUS, to receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets by placing a wager of any amount on the Go Bowling at the Glen or any other market!

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📈 Go Bowling at the Glen betting insights

Here are some betting insights from BetMGM in the hours prior to the green flag waving:

• Michael McDowell, who's our top pick to win the race, is drawing the highest ticket percentage at 7.2%
• Shane van Gisbergen, who will start on the front row, is getting by far the highest percentage of the handle at 55.6%
• Long shot Connor Zilisch is receiving the second-highest handle percentage at 11.5%

🏁 NASCAR predictions, expert picks & best bets at Watkins Glen

Editor's note: Odds and predictions were made prior to qualifying.

Road course racing has become the Shane van Gisbergen show. The veteran from Australian Supercars has won the last three road course events. Just a few weeks ago, he led 97 of 110 laps at Sonoma after starting on the pole en route to a near-perfect driver rating of 149.3.

Unsurprisingly, the best sports betting sites have SVG priced at +125 to win this race, which implies he winds up victorious a whopping 44.4% of the time. Their faith in SVG, while well-placed, has opened up value further down the board.

The key to this weekend will be targeting drivers who must win - or otherwise perform - to make the playoffs. While van Gisbergen has a good chance to win this race, I predict Michael McDowell will win the 2025 Go Bowling at the Glen in Watkins Glen.

🏆 Pick to win at Watkins Glen: Michael McDowell (+1800) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: +1800 via BetMGM ($10 to win $180)
🔢 Implied probability: 5.26%

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We’re giving McDowell four stars to win this race largely due to the price - almost all of the best sportsbooks have him at +1500 or shorter, so the +1800 on BetMGM is a nice deal. McDowell, unlike van Gisbergen, is still looking for his first win of the year, which he’ll need to make the postseason.

McDowell is one of the few road course racers capable of keeping up with van Gisbergen. He has led laps in every road course event this season. He was out front early at Chicago, running faster than SVG, before mechanical issues led to a 32nd-place finish.

Spire Motorsports brought an absolute ton of speed to the Glen last year, too. All three of the organizations’ drivers scored top 10s, with Carson Hocevar and Zane Smith finishing inside the top five. If they can give McDowell that kind of car, he has a better chance of edging SVG than BetMGM thinks.

💎 Best value bet to win at Watkins Glen: Ty Gibbs (+2500) ⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: +2500 via DraftKings ($10 to win $250)
🔢 Implied probability: 3.85%

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Although Gibbs has yet to find Victory Lane in the Cup Series, he has been looking good on road courses lately.

He scored a seventh-place result at Sonoma with the seventh-best average green-flag speed. He finished 11th in Mexico City with the fourth-best speed. He even finished second at Chicago Street with the 13th-best speed (SVG ranked eighth that weekend).

The budding star has a strong resume on these tracks in the Xfinity Series. He won in his first-ever Xfinity Series start, which came on a road course. He has won here, at Road America, and at the Indy Street Course in the series, too.

As tempting as it is to write him off due to underwhelming performances to this point in his career, he has a real shot to turn things around in New York this weekend.

🎯 Best long shot to win at Watkins Glen: Brad Keselowski (+15000) ⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: +15000 via ESPN BET ($10 to win $1,500)
🔢 Implied probability: 0.66%

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Keselowski is clearly a long shot to win this weekend, but this price is flat-out disrespectful. I’m aware that his road-course performances, especially in the NextGen car, have been awful. But there are signs he is figuring something out, and he’ll have to put the No. 6 Ford in Victory Lane somewhere to make the playoffs.

It was a long time ago, but Keselowski used to be a threat at the Glen. He finished second here in 2011, 2012, and 2013. Add in a P3 in 2016, a P7 in 2015, and a P9 in 2019, and you have six top 10s in 14 starts with an average finish of 14.8. Keselowski just scored an 11th-place result at Sonoma with the 10th-best average green-flag speed, too.

A $10 bet will earn you a massive $1,500 payday. Sure, it’s unlikely, but Keselowski and crew chief Jeremy Bullins are not afraid of making aggressive strategy calls - maybe they’ll convert one of their desperation plays on Sunday.

💰 Best NASCAR prop bets & picks at Watkins Glen

🔥 Best prop bet for Watkins Glen: Chris Buescher top-10 finish (+105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: +105 via Hard Rock Bet ($10 to win $10.50)
🔢 Implied probability: 48.78%

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Old reliable has been far from that of late, with Buescher failing to score a top 10 in his last two road course starts and four of his last five races overall. As the last driver above the playoff cut line, those performances simply won’t do. Fortunately, Buescher is returning to a track where he won last year - beating out van Gisbergen in the process.

Buescher boasts the second-best average finish at road courses of all active drivers in the NextGen era, trailing only SVG. This includes a whopping 15 top 10s (and 20 top 20s) in 21 starts. Buescher has a knack for these venues, and with the end of the regular season right around the corner, I just can’t leave this bet off the card despite Buescher’s recent struggles.

🚀 Best long-shot prop bet for Watkins Glen: Zane Smith top-10 finish (+900) ⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: +900 via Hard Rock Bet ($10 to win $90)
🔢 Implied probability: 10%

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Smith finished fifth here last year. While there’s an argument that Spire Motorsports is the reason (as discussed above), this price doesn’t reflect Smith’s true talent on road courses. Sure, Front Row Motorsports has clearly lost a step this year, but getting a $90 return on a $10 bet for Smith just to score a top 10 is ridiculous.

The Cup Series resume isn’t great, but look at what Smith did in the Truck Series. He won at COTA twice in three starts. He scored a sixth-place finish in his debut at Watkins Glen, too. I have some serious doubts about his No. 38 Ford, but Smith himself has more than enough talent to score a top 10 more than 10% of the time in this field.

📈 NASCAR trends & Watkins Glen track history

Here are a few NASCAR trends to consider before betting on the Go Bowling at the Glen at Watkins Glen on Sunday.

🏎️ Hendrick Motorsports’ playground. Hendrick Motorsports has won five of the last six races at Watkins Glen, including the first two in the NextGen Era.

🏎️ Start up front, stay up front. Aside from last year’s win by Buescher, the last five winners at the Glen started in the first two rows. Three of those winners started on the front row. Despite not winning, two of the drivers who finished in the top four here last year also started in the first two rows.

🏎️ Keep it up, Chris! Buescher is a perfect 3-for-3 in terms of scoring a top 10 at Watkins Glen in the NextGen Era. He finished ninth in 2022, seventh in 2023, and first in 2024 - all despite failing to qualify in the first four rows.

💡 How to bet on NASCAR at Watkins Glen

When betting on road courses in NASCAR, a few betting strategy tips come into play. Let’s revisit some of the talking points we discussed before the race at Sonoma a few weeks ago.

• Think hard before paying up for the big favorite. Sure, van Gisbergen is on a three-race winning streak. He is also one of 40 drivers in the field, meaning he has raw odds of 2.5% to win this race. Based on his outright odds of +125, the books think he has a 44.4% chance of winning.
• Don’t let performance on ovals influence you. Some drivers do well on road courses, while others struggle. There’s a reason why Denny Hamlin, who is often atop the oddsboard on ovals, is a long shot for this weekend’s race. Conversely, there’s a reason why van Gisbergen, who is frequently far down the board on ovals, is at the top.

🏆 Past Watkins Glen winners

Here is a look at the last 10 Watkins Glen winners entering Sunday's race.

📺 How to watch the 2025 Go Bowling at the Glen at Watkins Glen

📅 Race date: Sunday, August 10, 2025
🕒 Start time: 2 p.m. ET
📍 Track: Watkins Glen International (Watkins Glen, N.Y.)
📺 TV: USA | Streaming: Peacock

❓ NASCAR at Watkins Glen FAQs

Who is favored to win the Go Bowling at the Glen?

Shane van Gisbergen is the favorite to win the 2025 Go Bowling at the Glen with odds of -125 (55.56%), which would yield an $8 profit on a $10 bet.

What are the odds for the Go Bowling at the Glen?

Shane van Gisbergen (-125) and William Byron (+800) are getting the shortest odds to win the Go Bowling at the Glen.

What time is the 2025 Go Bowling at the Glen?

The 2025 Go Bowling at the Glen starts at 2 p.m. ET (USA) on Sunday, August 10, from Watkins Glen.

How to watch the 2025 Go Bowling at the Glen

You can watch the Go Bowling at the Glen on USA or stream it via Peacock.

Who won the Go Bowling at the Glen last year?

Last year, Chris Buescher won at Watkins Glen after opening (and closing) at odds of +2800.

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