2025 The Great American Getaway 400 Predictions at Pocono Today: Best NASCAR Prop Bets, Picks to Win & Odds

The odds have already shortened from +25000 to +10000 on John Hunter Nemechek, our long-shot pick for today's NASCAR Cup Series race at Pocono in Long Pond, Penn. 

He's featured in The Great American Getaway 400 odds and prediction along with Brad Keselowski and William Byron, the latter of whom is renowned for his consistency. 

Today's event starts at 2 p.m. ET and will be aired on Amazon Prime, and Hamlin is the favorite at our best sports betting sites. 

📊 2025 The Great American Getaway 400 odds & favorites at Pocono

Here are the latest The Great American Getaway 400 odds and favorites at BetMGM as of Sunday morning at Pocono.

🥇 The Great American Getaway 400 betting favorites 🥇

• Denny Hamlin, +300 ($10 to win $30)
• Odds shortened from +500
• Ryan Blaney, +600 ($10 to win $60)
• Odds shortened from +800
• William Byron, +800 ($10 to win $80)
• Odds lengthened from +750
• Tyler Reddick, +850 ($10 to win $85)
• Odds shortened from +950
• Chris Buescher, +900 ($10 to win $90)
• Odds shortened from +2200
• Kyle Larson, +1000 ($10 to win $100)
• Odds lengthened from +575
• Christopher Bell, +1100 ($10 to win $110)
• Odds lengthened from +900
• Carson Hocevar, +1600 ($10 to win $160)
• Odds shortened from +2500
• Brad Keselowski, +2000 ($10 to win $200)
• Odds shortened from +3000
• Ty Gibbs, +2000 ($10 to win $200)
• Odds remained unchanged
• Chase Elliott, +2200 ($10 to win $220)
• Odds lengthened from +1600
• Chase Briscoe, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
• Odds lengthened from +2200
• Joey Logano, +3000 ($10 to win $300)
• Odds lengthened from +2500
• Bubba Wallace, +4000 ($10 to win $400)
• Odds lengthened from +3000
• Alex Bowman, +4000 ($10 to win $400)
• Odds lengthened from +3000

Claim our BetMGM bonus code, SBRBONUS, to receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets by placing a wager of any amount on The Great American Getaway 400 or any other market!

🏁 The Great American Getaway 400 predictions, expert picks & best bets at Pocono

The picks and predictions below were made based off odds from Friday morning.

Pocono Raceway, nicknamed “The Tricky Triangle,” is a tricky track to handicap indeed. It falls neatly into the “flat intermediate” bucket alongside Indianapolis. Both venues are over two miles long, with relatively little banking in the corners, which increases the significance of braking and the likelihood of brake failure. Unlike Indianapolis, Pocono’s three corners all vary in angle.

But with only two tracks in this category, we don’t have an extensive data set with which to work. Worse, The Great American Getaway 400 is the first event at such a venue this year, leaving us with only numbers from last season and not-so-great comparators from this year. I’ll use Michigan for insight into raw speed on longer intermediates and Darlington for insight into braking.

Last year, Ty Gibbs nearly won both Darlington (Spring) and Michigan. He went on to win the pole and lead the first 21 laps at Pocono before speeding penalties and mechanical failures derailed his day. This year, William Byron dominated at both tracks but failed to find Victory Lane. Bank on regression: I predict William Byron will win The Great American Getaway 400 at Pocono.

🏆 Pick to win The Great American Getaway 400: William Bryon (+700 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The key to NASCAR betting is looking under the hood. It’s great when drivers win races, but it’s better when they dominate them. Said another way, you want to look for guys who run well on every lap, not just the last few.

Denny Hamlin won at both Michigan and Darlington, but he led just 15 laps (3%) in both events. In contrast, Byron led the most laps in both events with 341 (68.6%) despite failing to win either.  That’s a strong signal. Byron was also top 3 in average green flag speed at both tracks. 

Byron is yet to win at Pocono in the Cup Series, but he finished fourth here last year for his third top 5. He also owns the best average finish here of all active Cup drivers at 9.4 and the second-best average driver rating at 96.7.  

The odds of +700 at BetMGM, which would yield a $70 return on a $10 bet, could be better. But with Hamlin (+475) and Larson (+550) favored, we’re still getting a healthy chunk of value at this price.

💎 Best value bet to win The Great American Getaway 400: Brad Keselowski (+2500 via ESPN BET) ⭐⭐⭐

Given Keselowski’s singular win since joining RFK Racing, you’d think we could get him for a better price than +2500 this weekend. But with him now in a must-win position for the playoffs – and every other book charging +2200 or worse – we’re still getting acceptable value.

The two comparator tracks point to why. Last year, Keselowski won at Darlington (Spring) and finished fifth at Michigan. He then led 20 laps at Pocono before finishing seventh and 35th at Indianapolis before finishing 21st. This year, Keselowski struggled at Darlington, but he and the rest of the RFK Racing stable scored top 10s at Michigan. 

Ultimately, it’s Keselowski’s impressive resume at this track that intrigues me the most to make this wager at ESPN BET. The veteran driver owns the second-best average finish at 10.8. Over 27 starts, he has one win, six top 3s, 10 top 5s, and 16 top 10s. His fourth-best Pocono performance by driver rating came with RFK Racing just last year.

🎯 Best long shot to win The Great American Getaway 400: John Hunter Nemechek (+25000 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

Nemechek will probably not win at Pocono this weekend, but his chances of doing so are much better than the +25000 (read: 0.4%) the sportsbooks would have you believe them to be. Nemechek won here in the Truck Series in 2021 and owns three top 5s in five starts.

What intrigues me with Nemechek the most is the speed we saw out of him last year at Indianapolis. He ranked fifth in average green flag speed that day before getting into an accident late. Similar speed and a late-race caution or alternative strategy could put him in Victory Lane on Sunday.

The team is a red flag, but this venue has been better for Legacy Motor Club than others. His teammate, Erik Jones, owns two top 10s here in the NextGen car with an average finish of 10.7, seventh-best over that three-race sample. 

Best way to handle it? Catch that +25000 number after using our BetMGM bonus code.

💰 Best The Great American Getaway 400 prop bets & picks at Pocono

While I usually recommend laddering a driver on the outright and top finish prop markets early in the year, the playoff format breaks drivers into two categories as the years progress: those who must win (and take risks to do so), and those who need points (and minimize risk to score them). We’re rolling with Chris Buescher – and a longshot – to score top 10s accordingly.

🔥 Best prop bet for The Great American Getaway 400: Chris Buescher Top 10 (+105 via Hard Rock Bet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The sharper domestic books all have Buescher in the -140 to -135 range to score a top 10, but Caesars (+100) and Hard Rock Bet (+105) are giving us just under 10% of implied probability for free. I’ll take it enthusiastically.

Buescher won a fog-shortened race in his first start at Pocono but is yet to return to the top 10. His performance has been trending up, though, with him scoring an 11th last year and an 18th the year before.

Importantly, Buescher crushed it at the two comparator venues we’re using. He finished sixth at Darlington with the fourth-best average green flag speed and second at Michigan with the seventh-best average green flag speed. 

Bet on another good points day from the No. 17 team to more than double your money at Hard Rock Bet.

🚀 Best long-shot prop bet for The Great American Getaway 400: John Hunter Nemechek Top 10 (+1000 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

Quadruple-digit top 10 sweats slap. We cashed Ricky Stenhouse Jr. for one at Texas and John Hunter Nemechek for another at Kansas in May. FanDuel has shortened its top 10 odds a fair amount since then, but you can still find Nemechek at +1000 on Hard Rock and Caesars.

With Nemechek’s teammate, Jones, scoring top 10s in two of the last three races here, it’s not surprising to see the books pricing him between +200 and +300 to do it again. It is surprising for a driver in similar equipment, such as Nemechek, to be such a long shot in comparison.

Nemechek limped to just four top 10s all of last season, but he is up to five already this year, with such finishes coming at high-speed intermediates, superspeedways, and even a road course. We’re getting too good of a deal after using our Caesars promo code to pass up here.

📉 The Great American Getaway 400 betting insights

Here are some betting insights from BetMGM in the hours before the green flag waves:

• Denny Hamlin is getting the highest ticket percentage (10.5%) and handle (19.2%) to win outright
• However, the price for Carson Hocevar has been moving significantly while shifting from +2500 to +1600
• Chase Elliot, who's getting the second-highest handle percentage at 9.5%, is the largest liability at the book

📈 The Great American Getaway 400 trends & Pocono Raceway history

Here are a few The Great American Getaway 400 trends to consider before betting on Sunday's race at Pocono.

🏎️ Start up front, stay up front. The last three Pocono Raceway winners started the race from the first four rows. Two of the three drivers who led the most laps started on the front row.

🏎️ Stage winners don’t win the race. Since 2018, no driver has won the first or second stage and gone on to win the race outright. Don’t be afraid to get some action down during the race at our best live betting sites.

⛅ The Great American Getaway 400 race day weather

It's going to be a hot one out there on Sunday, with the area mired in a weeklong heat wave. It should be a hot, humid day with highs around 96 F. 

The hot asphalt could result in slicker conditions and it should increase tire wear significantly. That might mean more pit stops, which could impact race strategy.

💡 How to bet on NASCAR at Pocono

Betting on flat intermediates is hard due to the lack of data to lean on each year. However, there are a few tricks that can get you through it:

• Pay attention to qualifying. Since the NextGen Era began in 2022, Pocono has rewarded drivers who can qualify well. Last year, every driver in the top 6 started in the top 10. The year prior, every driver in the top 6 started in the top 11. 
• Understand the track… The “Tricky Triangle” has three corners, all of which are different. Turn 1 is a hairpin with 14 degrees of banking that resembles a more traditional oval, while Turns 2 and 3 feature almost no banking in a manner reminiscent of Indianapolis. 
• …and apply your understanding. Knowing which corners race like what track can help you handicap this event by digging up comparators, like we’ve done with Indianapolis, Michigan, and Darlington.

🏆 Past The Great American Getaway 400 winners

Here is a look at the last 10 Pocono Raceway winners entering Sunday's race.

📺 How to watch the 2025 The Great American Getaway 400 at Pocono

📅 Race date: Sunday, June 22, 2025
🕒 Start time: 2 p.m. ET
📍 Track: Pocono Raceway (Long Pond, Penn.)
📺 TV & Streaming: Amazon Prime

❓ The Great American Getaway 400 FAQs

Who is favored to win The Great American Getaway 400?

Denny Hamlin is the favorite to win The Great American Getaway 400 at +475, which would net a $47.50 profit on a $10 bet.

What are the odds for The Great American Getaway 400?

Behind Hamlin, Kyle Larson (+550) and Ryan Blaney (+575) are high up in The Great American Getaway 400 odds.

What time is the 2025 The Great American Getaway 400?

The 2025 The Great American Getaway 400 starts at 2 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime) on Sunday, June 22, from Pocono.

How to watch the 2025 The Great American Getaway 400

You can watch or stream The Great American Getaway 400 on Amazon Prime.

Who won The Great American Getaway 400 last year?

Ryan Blaney won the NASCAR Cup Series race at Pocono last year after opening at +1500 and closing at +1300.

💵 Best NASCAR betting sites

Want to bet on The Great American Getaway 400? Check out the best sports betting sites and best sportsbook promos for the race this weekend:

• FanDuel Promo Code
• DraftKings Promo Code
• Hard Rock Bet Promo Code

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