NASCAR Predictions at Las Vegas: 2025 South Point 400 Odds & Expert Picks

After a thrilling race last weekend, the NASCAR Cup Series advances to the Round of 8 to settle the drivers who will contend for a title in Phoenix. I'm diving into my South Point 400 predictions for Sunday’s race at Las Vegas and break down the NASCAR odds for the event. You can tune into the action at 5:30 p.m. ET (USA).

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📊 2025 NASCAR odds & favorites at Las Vegas

Latest NASCAR odds via BetMGM; subject to change.

🥇 South Point 400 betting favorites 🥇

• Kyle Larson, +475 ($10 to win $47.50)
• Denny Hamlin, +550 ($10 to win $55)
• Christopher Bell, +550 ($10 to win $55)
• Ryan Blaney, +800 ($10 to win $80)
• William Byron, +850 ($10 to win $85)
• Chase Elliott, +1100 ($10 to win $110)
• Chase Briscoe, +1100 ($10 to win $110)
• Tyler Reddick, +1400 ($10 to win $140)
• Joey Logano, +1600 ($10 to win $160)
• Ross Chastain, +1800 ($10 to win $180)
• Bubba Wallace, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
• Alex Bowman, +3000 ($10 to win $300)
• Josh Berry, +3000 ($10 to win $300)
• Chris Buescher, +3500 ($10 to win $350)
• Brad Keselowski, +3500 ($10 to win $350)

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🏁 NASCAR predictions & preview at Las Vegas

Las Vegas Motor Speedway is one of several high-speed intermediates on the NASCAR schedule, and this weekend’s South Point 400 marks the final event on such a track for the season. While Kyle Larson won just one of the six such races we’ve seen thus far, he ranked first in green-flag speed in four of them. The problem is that the edge his No. 5 team had earlier in the season seemed to evaporate at Kansas just two weeks ago.

This year’s playoff race at Kansas saw the Joe Gibbs Racing and 23XI Racing Toyotas lead 85.7% of the race – just not the last lap, thanks largely to aggressive driving by Denny Hamlin that opened the door for Chase Elliott to win (cashing a +1600 ticket for us). When handicapping Kansas, I emphasized Hendrick’s dominance. I cannot do the same for Las Vegas. Hendrick may have won, but Elliott and Larson led just 25 laps.

In Kansas, Hamlin and Bell led the drivers who completed the race in average green-flag speed, with both clocking an average at least 0.3 mph faster than Larson. That means a lot since these races correlate heavily. Last year, Bell led the most laps at both events. The year before, Larson did the same. Those years featured a bigger gap between the events, too – teams have had even less time to adjust this season.

As a result, I predict Denny Hamlin will win the 2025 South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

📈 NASCAR trends at Las Vegas Motor Speedway

🏎️ Trend #1. Expect the unexpected. Although it’s always good to have a slip for the driver who leads the most laps to win the race, the most dominant driver hasn’t won at Las Vegas in the last two races. The driver who led the most laps had previously gone on to win the prior three events here.

🏎️ Trend #2. Playoff drivers win in the postseason. With a playoff win offering a guaranteed pass to the next round, playoff drivers have managed to win all three postseason Las Vegas since the NextGen era began.

🏎️ Trend #3. Consistency, thy name is… William Byron? The pilot of the No. 24 Chevrolet has strung together consecutive fourth-place finishes here to go with five straight top 10s and seven straight top 15s, good for an average finish of 6.3.

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🏆 Pick to win South Point 400: Denny Hamlin (+650) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Denny Hamlin and the No. 11 team fumbled a win at Kansas a few weeks ago. He led a whopping 159 of the 273 laps (58.2%) and won the first two stages before getting mired in traffic due to a disastrous pit stop, botching a late-race restart, and costing himself and his Toyota teammates a shot at Victory Lane. 

The significance of the fall Kansas race when handicapping the fall Las Vegas race is hard to miss:

In 2024, Christopher Bell won the pole and led the most laps at Kansas. He then won the pole, led the most laps, posted the best average green-flag speed among all drivers who finished, and finished second at Las Vegas. In 2023, Kyle Larson qualified second and led the most laps at Kansas. He then qualified second, led the most laps, posted the third-best average green-flag speed, and won at Las Vegas.

So with Hamlin at +650 (13.3%) odds at DraftKings, enough to score a $65 profit on a $10 bet, I’m listing him as a five-star outright for this weekend’s South Point 400.

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💎 Best value bet to win South Point 400: Joey Logano (+1600) ⭐⭐⭐

I liked Chase Elliott at +1400 (6.7%) for my value bet to win the South Point 400, but his odds have since tightened to +1200 (7.7%), and that’s a bit higher than I’m comfortable buying him. Instead, let’s roll with a four-time Las Vegas winner and playoff phenom in Joey Logano for +1600 (5.9%), the same price at which we got Elliott to pull off an upset at Kansas.

Logano’s penchant for finding Victory Lane when necessary in the postseason hinges on both good fortune and good luck. Crew chief Paul Wolfe excels at making the contrarian strategy calls necessary to get his driver near the front at the end of the race, and with Larson bringing so many dominant cars only to lose at the high-speed intermediates this year, similar calls have mattered.

Logano even punched his ticket to the playoffs with a similar win on a high-speed intermediate earlier in the year at Texas. Despite leading only seven laps and ranking 13th in average green-flag speed, Logano won the race outright. He may need similar heroics to get the job done on Sunday, but at +1600 on bet365 (he is +900 (10%) at DraftKings), sign me up.

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🎯 Best long shot to win South Point 400: Ryan Preece (+8000) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Back in March, Josh Berry pulled off an unexpected upset here at Las Vegas. His odds to repeat that performance are in the +3000 (3.2%) this week. But right behind Berry was Ryan Preece, whose +8000 (1.2%) odds are far longer and offer a significant $800 return on a simple $10 bet. I can’t leave him off my card for exactly that reason.

Preece’s performances at high-speed intermediates haven’t been awe-inspiring, but they’ve been solid. He finished third at Las Vegas, seventh at Kansas (Spring), eighth at Charlotte, and ninth at Michigan. He crashed out at Texas and took damage early at Kansas (Fall), hurting his results in both events, but his No. 60 Ford has routinely been around the front of the pack at these tracks.

It would be a stunning upset, but for such a good price, Preece belongs on your betting card this weekend.

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💰 Best NASCAR prop bet picks at Las Vegas

Our player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market (including NASCAR) across legal sportsbooks in your area.

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🔥 Best prop bet for South Point 400: Toyota Winning Manufacturer (+150) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Toyota camp should take two notes away from Kansas. First, they’re the manufacturer to beat at Las Vegas. Second, the only way they can lose is by beating themselves. Two Toyota drivers, Hamlin and Bell, paced the field in average green-flag speed. Those two should be at the front again this Sunday. 

The odds for this prop are far shorter at every other sportsbook. Toyota is +130 (43.5%) to +115 (46.5%) – and then there’s the +150 (40%) at DraftKings, which offers a $15 return from a $10 bet. You should absolutely hammer this line before qualifying, at which point the odds are likely to standardize at around +120 (45.5%).

My confidence in Toyota stems not just from their drivers’ in-race performance in Kansas but also from their drivers’ qualifying performances. Chase Briscoe won the pole. Hamlin started second. Despite entering just nine cars in the event, Toyota controlled six of the first 10 starting positions. Look for another strong Sunday from them this week.

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🚀 Best long-shot prop bet for South Point 400: Ryan Preece Top 10 (+375) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

After a disappointing performance at Kansas that stemmed not from a lack of raw speed but from damage suffered during the event, Ryan Preece’s odds to score a top 10 have gotten way too long. Preece has four top 10s at high-speed intermediates this season out of six attempts. The only times he has failed to finish inside the top 10 have been due to accidents or aero damage.

Further, while Preece didn’t look great at Kansas, his RFK Racing teammates did, mainly because they didn’t suffer damage. Chris Buescher ranked ninth by average green-flag speed and finished 15th. Brad Keselowski struggled with raw speed, ranking 24th, but still managed an eighth-place finish.

Preece has brought plenty of raw speed to these tracks this year. In addition to his steady finishes, he ranked inside the top 15 by average green-flag speed in all events but for Michigan (22nd) and Kansas (34th), with the latter result heavily skewed by damage.

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🏆 Past Las Vegas Motor Speedway winners

💡 How to bet on NASCAR at Las Vegas

• High-speed intermediates require, well, speed. Drivers who fare well at high-speed intermediates tend to unload with excellent raw speed. Tire management and in-race adjustments matter, but look for drivers who post impressive average green-flag speeds at comparable venues when handicapping tracks like this one.
• Know the playoff context. Las Vegas is scheduled to open the Round of 8, which means a few things: (1) drivers with plenty of points may race conservatively for more of them, (2) drivers with large deficits (see: Joey Logano) may race aggressively to score a win – and an automatic bid to the next round.

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📺 How to watch NASCAR at Las Vegas: 2025 South Point 400

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 12
• Start time: 5:30 p.m. ET
• Track: Las Vegas Motor Speedway (Las Vegas)
• TV: USA

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