🏎️ NASCAR Predictions at Phoenix 2026: Straight Talk Wireless 500 Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Ahead of the first oval race this season, my NASCAR predictions at Phoenix are leaning into a powerhouse race team to keep its hot streak alive in the desert this Sunday (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1) in the Straight Talk Wireless 500 at Phoenix Raceway.

Ryan Blaney leads the NASCAR odds and betting favorites at Phoenix after winning the last race here in November, though he'll hand to fend off a red-hot Tyler Reddick after the 23XI Racing star made history with three consecutive races to open the Cup Series schedule. And we're targeting both with our expert picks and best bets for Sunday's race.

💰 My best NASCAR bets at Phoenix

Here's a look at the actual bets I'm placing for the Straight Talk Wireless 500 with the best odds from all of our best sports betting apps at the time of writing:

Total wagered: 6 units | Max profit: 12 units

💡 How I'm betting NASCAR at Phoenix

After three races on non-traditional tracks (two superspeedways and a road course), we're finally back to a more traditional 1-mile track at Phoenix ... though this is anything but a cookie-cutter course.

Phoenix Raceway is a low-banked tri-oval that places a premium on pit strategy, long-run speed, and taking advantage of clean air and running the optimal line - which often means cutting the dog leg and scraping every second you can from a clean run. That tends to benefit drivers with elite equipment and experience running up front at this track.

That's why the favorites to win this race all hail from one of the "Big Three" teams - Team Penske, Hendrick Motorsports, and Joe Gibbs Racing - who have combined to win the last four races here and six of the last seven in the desert. And I'm not straying far from precedent here with my best bets to win at Phoenix this weekend.

🏆 Best bet to win Straight Talk Wireless 500

Ryan Blaney to win Straight Talk Wireless 500 (+500, 1u)

I don't love betting on such a short price any more than you do - especially after SVG lost last week as a heavy favorite - but the goal here is to pick the winner of the race. And nobody is better suited to reach Victory Lane this week than the No. 12 team.

It's hard to believe Blaney has only won once at Phoenix given his dominance at this track: he's finished in the top five in seven of his eight races in the Next Gen era (since 2022), including four runner-up finishes and a win last November in the championship race.

In that time, he's posted the best average finish with the most "average points earned" at Phoenix, per NASCAR data guru Daniel Cespedes, while leading 100-plus laps in two of his eight races here in the Next Gen era.

He's also been quietly stellar through three races this season despite not having a win to show for it. Blaney led 11 laps last week at COTA and was arguably the fastest car in the field despite an eighth-place finish, and he's shown the consistent speed that typically translates well to a track like Phoenix where clean air and long-run pace are king.

With Team Penske's advantage at this track over the years from an equipment and data perspective, it's hard for me to look anywhere else for my "anchor bet" for this week. I'm only dropping one unit on his outright winner odds, though that's mostly because I'm also invested in Blaney and Team Penske in the props market (more on that below).

🏁 More NASCAR picks to win at Phoenix

This race should produce less volatile results than the two superspeedway races to open the year, and we can rely on traditional oval metrics much more than we could last week at COTA. That leads me to a few standout value plays for this week's bet slip:

William Byron to win Straight Talk Wireless 500 (+800, 0.5u)

While Blaney has been the most consistent driver at this track over the last four years, Byron can make one heck of a case of his own. He leads the field in average running position at Phoenix in the Next Gen era and ranks second in average points earned and total laps led. He won here in 2023, and I'm at least a little surprised that he isn't priced closer to Blaney.

Joey Logano to win Straight Talk Wireless 500 (+1300, 0.5u)

Nobody has led more laps at this track in the Next Gen era than Logano, who has crossed the start-finish line first a whopping 379 times in eight races here since 2022. His average finish here isn't as impressive as the rest of the field given his wreck in March 2024 (P34) and a few other finishes outside the top 10, but he has two wins at Phoenix in the Next Gen era with a P4 in November. He's live to win on Sunday.

Tyler Reddick to win Straight Talk Wireless 500 (+1800, 0.25u)

Do you really want to bet against Reddick right now? The current face of the sport is coming off an unprecedented three straight victories to start the season, and he's finished in the top three at Phoenix twice in the Next Gen era with a sixth-place finish, too. Frankly, he could have finished 30th every previous race - I'm placing a (small) wager on him every week until his luck runs out.

🔥 Best NASCAR prop bets at Phoenix

As mentioned above, Team Penske has been dominant at this track in the Next Gen era, so that's where I'm focusing my attention in the props market with an extra bet on Byron, who has been the model of consistency at Phoenix Raceway.

Team Penske winning team (+350, 1u)

Here's the math on this bet: you'd need to cash it 22.22% of the time to break even at these +350 odds, which feels like a value on its own considering Team Penske has won two of the last three races here and three of the last seven (42.9%). This is a slightly more profitable than only betting on Blaney and Logano, but we also cash if Austin Cindric wins. I like this prop bet as a standalone bet or a complementary one.

Ryan Blaney top-5 finish (-110, 1.25u)

We've profiled Blaney's dominance here at length, but as a refresher for this exact bet, he's finished in the top five in eight of his last nine races. That's a truly preposterous run, and it makes it even harder to believe we're catching -110 odds on this prop. If you don't want to bet on this prop, I'd take this unit and add it to a Blaney outright bet, but the safer play is to split those two units across both wagers.

William Byron top-5 finish (+150, 1u)

I like Byron's chances to win the race, but I like his top-five odds even more. He's been the most consistent driver when measuring his average running position, and he's finished in the top six in five of his last seven trips to Phoenix with three top-fives and a ridiculous 313 laps led in that stretch. Count on him running near the front all day long.

Joey Logano top-5 finish (+220, 0.5u)

If Logano can avoid trouble and keep his car out of the garage, he has a great chance to cash this bet at surprisingly long odds. He's finished in the top three in two of his last three races at Phoenix and six of 12 races dating back to 2020. These odds suggest a mere 31.3% chance he repeats that again on Sunday - I'm buying at that price.

📈 NASCAR betting insights for Straight Talk Wireless 500

Here's a look at the latest betting insights from BetMGM ahead of Sunday's race:

📺 How to watch NASCAR at Phoenix: 2026 Straight Talk Wireless 500

• Date: Sunday, March 8
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Phoenix Raceway (Avondale, Ariz.)
• TV: FS1
• Track: 1-mile, low-banked tri-oval (312 laps, 312 miles)
• Stages: Stage 1 (60 laps), Stage 2 (125 laps), final stage (127 laps)