🏎️ NASCAR Predictions at Las Vegas 2026: Pennzoil 400 Picks, Best Bets & Odds

We're riding a two-week hot streak after cashing on Tyler Reddick (COTA) and Ryan Blaney (Phoenix), as we look ahead with our NASCAR predictions at Las Vegas for the Pennzoil 400 on Sunday (4 p.m. ET, FS1) at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Kyle Larson is the betting favorite after winning two of the last six races here. He's one of my best bets this week alongside three other Chevrolet drivers with a strong track record in the desert. Here are all of my picks and favorite prop bets for the Pennzoil 400.

💰 My best NASCAR bets at Las Vegas

Here's a look at the actual bets I'm placing for the Pennzoil 400 with the best odds from all of our best sports betting apps at the time of writing and before qualifying.

Total wagered: 7 units | Max profit: 22 units

💵 My betting record for NASCAR picks

All NASCAR picks have been tracked since the Daytona 500 on Feb. 15.

💡 How I'm betting NASCAR at Las Vegas

Finally, the true season begins. While the first four races have offered a thrilling start to the year, Las Vegas is the first true intermediate track of the season and tests the core skills that NASCAR fans love to see at a 1.5-mile track: long-run speed, tire management, and the ability to gain positions under green when the field spreads out.

Because of that, I've leaned hard into the data this week to find an edge in the market, and it's all pointing me squarely toward Chevrolet. The bowties have won four of eight races here in the Next Gen era (since 2022), and the three best drivers by weighted late-race running position all drive Chevys. I have all three on my bet slip this week.

Meanwhile, Joe Gibbs Racing has won just once at this track in the Next Gen era despite three of the top six NASCAR favorites at Las Vegas hailing from JGR. I'm fading Toyota's top team and instead targeting its hottest driver, who joins the Chevrolet stars among the best Cup Series drivers at this track over the last four seasons.

🏆 Best bet to win Pennzoil 400

Kyle Larson to win Pennzoil 400 (+500, 1u)

Look, I don't have to be a NASCAR expert to tell you that Larson is the biggest threat every time he steps behind the wheel at a 1.5-mile intermediate track. But even I underestimated his dominance here at Las Vegas until I dove into the data this week.

The two-time Cup Series champion has three career wins with two in the Next Gen era (2023, 2024). In that four-year run with the current car, Larson has led more than twice as many laps (595) than the next-closest driver, teammate William Byron (266), while posting five top-three finishes in eight races.

What separates him isn't just raw speed; it's what he does with it. Larson leads the field in positions gained above expectation (+16.8) and has the best gain-loss net rating (+1.9) of any driver here - both underscoring his ability to slice through traffic and take advantage of his elite equipment with Hendrick Motorsports and convert into wins.

You aren't getting a discount at these +500 odds, but they still only project a 16.67% win rate for the No. 5 car this weekend. I'll gladly take those odds on this driver at this track.

🏁 More NASCAR picks to win at Las Vegas

While Larson has been the best driver at this track by just about every metric, he's still won just two of the eight races here in the Next Gen era. Here are a few other drivers I'm targeting on my bet slip this week:

William Byron to win Pennzoil 400 (+900, .75u)

Larson has led the most laps at this track, but Byron actually boasts the higher speed score - which compares the driver's 95th percentile lap to the rest of the field - than his teammate or anyone else in the field. He ranks second behind Larson in percentage of laps run in the top 3, top 5, and top 10, and he won here in 2023. This is a top-two driver at this track dealing at a relative discount; I have to have him on my bet slip this week.

Tyler Reddick to win Pennzoil 400 (+1100, 0.5u)

My entire card for this race is full of Chevys this week, but I can't ignore the value on Reddick at this particular track. Sure, he's won three of the first four races this year, but he's also coming off a top-five finish at Las Vegas last fall while ranking as a top-five driver at this track by most advanced metrics. There's too much to like not to take a shot when he's dealing at longer than 10/1 odds.

Ross Chastain to win Pennzoil 400 (+2000, 0.75u)

I'm tempted to put a full unit down on Chastain at these ridiculous 20/1 odds, but I'll err on the side of caution knowing anything can happen on Sundays. Still, the data tells a clear story: the No. 1 car boasts the best average finish position (7.6) while pacing the field in total positions finished above expected (69.9) and average finish above running position (5.7) in the Next Gen era. Translation: Chastain is a certified closer in Las Vegas who has done all but win here, and these odds are a gift for Sunday's race.

Daniel Suarez to win Pennzoil 400 (+7500, 0.2u)

This isn't my strongest bet of the week (hence the low investment), but I can't leave Suarez off the card given his history here. The former Trackhouse Racing driver finished second in last year's spring race in Las Vegas after a third-place result his previous time out, and he's led at least 12 laps in four of his last seven trips to the desert. Even though he's racing for Spire Motorsports this year, I like Suarez's chances as a long shot.

🔥 Best NASCAR prop bets at Las Vegas

My NASCAR prop bets have a real Chevy flair to them this week - I'm betting on the manufacturer to win on Sunday while targeting some of the top bowties to post a strong finish at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Chevrolet winning manufacturer (+140, 1.5u)

I'm going heavy on Chevy to win this weekend's race given how successful Hendrick Motorsports in particular has been at this track. Instead of betting HMS directly, though, I like betting the manufacturer market to also double down on Chastain and Suarez here.

Kyle Larson top-3 finish (+160, 1.25u)

Larson has raced in Las Vegas eight times in the Next Gen car, and he's finished in the top three in five of those races after a P2 finish last fall. That doesn't include his win in 2021 or three more top-three finishes in 2017-18. The math screams value on this play, and Larson's recent form gives me no reason to shy away.

Ross Chastain top-5 finish (+275, 0.75u)

Chastain has finished in the top five in five of his last eight races at this track. That's a ridiculous 62.5% hit rate for a bet that only needs to cash 26.67% of the time to break even. I would bet this at anything +200 or better and feel great about it.

Daniel Suarez top-5 finish (+1100, 0.3u)

Suarez has finished in the top five in two of his last three races in Las Vegas - and he finished between 10th and 16th in the four races before that - and yet the market is acting like a top-five finish for the No. 7 this weekend would be a complete shock. I don't see it that way.

📈 NASCAR betting insights for Las Vegas

Here's a look at the latest betting insights from BetMGM for Sunday's race at Las Vegas:

The public is once again loading up on Reddick, who accounts for over a quarter of the total handle despite not being the favorite. Meanwhile, Blaney has shortened from +1100 to +900 off his Phoenix win, and Larson has ticked down to +450 - the two biggest liability drivers for the book. Notably, my top value target Chastain isn't generating much public action at all, which is exactly how we like it.

🏆 Past NASCAR winners at Las Vegas

Here's a look at the last eight winners at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in the Next Gen era:

Chevrolet has won four of eight races here in the Next Gen era, all courtesy of Hendrick Motorsports, while Ford has taken three checkered flags behind Joey Logano (twice) and Josh Berry. Toyota's lone win came last fall when Hamlin won his second career race here, but Hendrick has had a strangehold on the spring race here the last few years.

📊 NASCAR betting odds at Las Vegas

Here's a look at the current odds to win Sunday's race at Las Vegas via BetMGM:

📺 How to watch NASCAR at Las Vegas: 2026 Pennzoil 400

• Date: Sunday, March 15
• Time: 4 p.m. ET
• Location: Las Vegas Motor Speedway (Las Vegas, Nev.)
• TV: FS1
• Track: 1.5-mile intermediate oval (267 laps, 400 miles)
• Stages: Stage 1 (80 laps), Stage 2 (80 laps), final stage (107 laps)