Mobil 1 301 Predictions at New Hampshire: NASCAR Odds Today, Best Prop Bets & Expert Picks
New Hampshire Motor Speedway hosts today's Mobil 1 301 as the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs continue, and my best Mobil 1 301 predictions have the best NASCAR picks for the 2 p.m. ET race (USA Network). We’ll dive into the Mobil 1 301 odds before identifying the top NASCAR Cup Series bets, including a pick for Chase Briscoe.
Joey Logano is on pole for today's race, while Ryan Blaney is the betting favorite with +275 odds to win in New Hampshire representing an implied win probability of 26.67%.
NASCAR odds & favorites at New Hampshire
Here are the latest Mobil 1 301 odds and favorites at New Hampshire via BetMGM.
Mobil 1 301 betting favorites
- Ryan Blaney, +275 ($10 to win $27.50)
- Joey Logano, +475 ($10 to win $47.50)
- Christopher Bell, +575 ($10 to win $57.50)
- Denny Hamlin, +675 ($10 to win $67.50)
- William Byron, +725 ($10 to win $72.50)
- Kyle Larson, +1200 ($10 to win $120)
- Chase Briscoe, +1300 ($10 to win $130)
- Tyler Reddick, +1300 ($10 to win $130)
- Josh Berry, +2000 ($10 to win $200)
- Ross Chastain, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
- Bubba Wallace, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
- Carson Hocevar, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
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NASCAR predictions, expert picks & best bets at New Hampshire
New Hampshire Motor Speedway is a flat short track. It’s on the longer side of short at a mile in distance, but it still compares favorably to other tracks in the category, such as Iowa, Phoenix, Richmond, and Gateway. Its paperclip shape also compares favorably to half-mile Martinsville.
The Cup Series will use the same tire setup here as it did at Martinsville and Richmond (along with the non-points races at Bowman Gray and North Wilkesboro), which is new to New Hampshire. Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, and Christopher Bell tested the tire here back in July.
The added fall-off will make it more difficult for one driver – or one team – to dominate, which we’ve seen at this venue recently. The change will also give a slight edge to the three drivers (and their teams) who tested the tire here, as, unlike at Martinsville, the field didn’t get the chance to use this tire here a year ago. Ultimately, I predict that Chase Briscoe will win the Mobil 1 301 at New Hampshire.
Pick to win Mobil 1 301: Chase Briscoe (+750) ⭐⭐⭐
With the odds board so concentrated around so few drivers, finding value for this weekend’s race at New Hampshire is tricky. Christopher Bell is an easy guy to write off at odds of only +300 or so. While he has an incredible resume at this track, especially in the Xfinity Series, I’m not buying that his odds of winning this race are better than 20%. No one’s odds are ever that high (well, at an oval).
Instead, we’ll look to his teammate, Chase Briscoe, who has never driven a car this dominant here in the Cup Series. Just a few weeks ago, Briscoe ranked sixth by average green-flag speed at Gateway and finished second. Not only will he have some access to Bell’s notebook, he’ll also have access to the No. 19 team’s notebook, the team that led 254 of the 301 laps here in 2023.
Despite previously running poor equipment here, Briscoe has looked good at this track previously. He finished second here a year ago and 10th a year before that.
Briscoe’s odds of +750 (11.8%) at Caesars are short, but not so short that there isn’t value. The uncertainty surrounding how he’ll perform here in A-tier equipment is a large source of our edge. With a $10 bet returning a nice $75 profit, Briscoe is one of the best bets you can place for the 2025 Mobile 1 301.
Best value bet to win Mobil 1 301: Joey Logano (+1000) ⭐⭐⭐
I usually try to spotlight drivers beyond the +1000 (9.1%) range in this section, but I can’t leave Joey Logano off the card. He ran the tire test here for Team Penske in July and was “absolutely flying,” per Jeff Burton. While some may read that as mere noise, I see some signal – before the NextGen Era, Logano was one of the best drivers at New Hampshire, but he has just one top 10 (a runner-up in 2023) in this car.
Logano has an impressive resume at this track. Famously, he got his first Cup Series win here in 2009. He also won here in 2014 with Team Penske. In his first-ever Xfinity Series race here, he won the pole, then led 108 of 200 laps before losing to Kyle Busch. If he can get back to doing what he used to do here, the rest of the field could be in big trouble.
It’s also the postseason, which the No. 22 team tends to prioritize in its planning. Logano is a two-time Cup Series champion in the NextGen car under this playoff format for a reason. With his team lacking in playoff points this year, a win at New Hampshire would move the needle substantially, so trust Logano to get the job done to score a $100 profit on a $10 bet this weekend.
Best long shot to win Mobil 1 301: Ryan Preece (+6000) ⭐⭐⭐
I’m not a narrative-based bettor – no profitable gambler ever is – but no one in the field wants to win more at New Hampshire this weekend than Ryan Preece. Preece, a native New Englander and lifelong open-wheel modified racer, has driven on tracks like this one for his entire life. With his No. 60 Ford team out of the playoffs, I expect his team to treat this race aggressively.
Preece’s background in the Whelen Modified Tour, where New Hampshire serves as the closest analog to Daytona, should prove a major help on Sunday. Preece came close to winning here twice in Xfinity, scoring a runner-up in 2017 (behind only Kyle Busch) and a third place in 2018 (behind only Christopher Bell and Brad Keselowski). He now pilots the best equipment of his Cup career.
Get some exposure to the hometown hero at +6000 (1.6%) for Sunday. It’s a long shot, but it’s not unprecedented – Aric Almirola, another driver who grew up racing open-wheel modifieds, pulled off a long-shot win here in 2021.
Best NASCAR prop bets & picks at New Hampshire
We’re backing two drivers previously not discussed to score top 10 results at New Hampshire this weekend.
Best prop bet for Mobil 1 301: Bubba Wallace Top 10 (+105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Slam this Bubba Wallace top 10 prop line at bet365 immediately. At +105 (48.8%), a $10 bet will yield a nice $ 10.50 profit, more than doubling your money. Since the NextGen Era began in 2022, 23XI Racing has performed quite consistently at New Hampshire: six starts, five top 10s. Two of those belong to Wallace.
Although Wallace never won here in the Xfinity Series and has never led a lap here in the Cup Series, both the equipment and situation point to value relative to this number. A few weeks ago, he led 73 of 240 laps before finishing eighth (and ranking eighth in average green flag speed) at Gateway. Look for him to carry that momentum into this race.
Wallace also needs points to secure his spot in the next round of the Cup Series playoffs. While his No. 23 team has won a race this year, their plan to qualify for the Round of 8 probably doesn’t revolve around him scoring an outright win – it probably revolves around him maximizing points here and at Kansas before the Charlotte Roval.
Best long-shot prop bet for Mobil 1 301: John Hunter Nemechek Top 10 (+500) ⭐⭐⭐
We’ll wrap the card up with John Hunter Nemechek to score a top 10. We’ve cashed plenty of long-shot Nemechek top 10 tickets this year, including Darlington (+900), Kansas (+1000), and Pocono (+1000) – and even a top 5 at the Daytona 500 (+1200).
The books have corrected course a bit for the talented young driver. He now clocks in with top 10 odds of +500 (16.7%) at FanDuel, which would yield a $50 profit on a $10 bet. That still leaves a bit more value on the board than you’d think – Nemechek’s eight top 10s in 29 starts give this bet a raw hit rate of 27.5%.
Further, Nemechek just finished sixth at Gateway, a similar track to NHMS. It wasn’t a fluke, either as he also posted the ninth-best average green-flag speed. Nemechek belongs in the +200 (33.3%) to +400 (20%) range, which is were several other sportsbooks have him. Let’s take advantage of an off-market number at FanDuel before it disappears.
Mobil 1 301 starting grid
Here's how drivers will line up on the Mobil 1 301 starting grid for the 2 p.m. ET race:
| Pos | Driver |
|---|---|
| 1 | Joey Logano |
| 2 | Ryan Blaney |
| 3 | Josh Berry |
| 4 | Tyler Reddick |
| 5 | William Byron |
| 6 | Carson Hocevar |
| 7 | Alex Bowman |
| 8 | Ross Chastain |
| 9 | Denny Hamlin |
| 10 | Shane Van Gisbergen |
| 11 | Michael McDowell |
| 12 | AJ Allmendinger |
| 13 | Ty Gibbs |
| 14 | Bubba Wallace |
| 15 | Chris Buescher |
| 16 | Kyle Larson |
| 17 | Brad Keselowski |
| 18 | Chase Briscoe |
| 19 | Christopher Bell |
| 20 | Zane Smith |
| 21 | Justin Haley |
| 22 | Austin Cindric |
| 23 | Ryan Preece |
| 24 | Kyle Busch |
| 25 | Riley Herbst |
| 26 | Erik Jones |
| 27 | Chase Elliott |
| 28 | Austin Dillon |
| 29 | John Hunter Nemechek |
| 30 | Ty Dillon |
| 31 | Cole Custer |
| 32 | Daniel Suarez |
| 33 | Noah Gragson |
| 34 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 35 | Cody Ware |
| 36 | Todd Gilliland |
NASCAR trends & New Hampshire Motor Speedway history
Here are a few Mobil 1 301 trends to consider before betting on Sunday's race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
🏎️ You must start near the front to win. Over the three-race sample in the NextGen Era, the eventual New Hampshire winner has started no worse than fifth. Not counting 2021’s darkness-shortened race, this streak extends through the 2020 race that Brad Keselowski won from fourth.
🏎️ Joe Gibbs Racing is dominant here. JGR has won the last three New Hampshire races, which are also all the races held here in the NextGen car. The team also won two of the poles for those events and led 72.8% of the laps (83.1% if we count its affiliate, 23XI Racing).
🏎️ Death, taxes, and 23XI Racing top 10s – just not top 5s. Over the same three-race sample, 23XI Racing has combined for five top 10s in six attempts, with the lone exception coming last year due to an accident from Bubba Wallace. Just one of those five top 10s was also a top 5, however.
Mobil 1 301 betting insights
Here is how the betting action is coming in on the Mobil 1 301 at BetMGM as of Sunday morning:
| Line movement (opening → current) | Highest Ticket % | Highest Handle % | Biggest Liabilities |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Logano +1800 → +475 | Joey Logano 8.1% | Tyler Reddick 17.6% | Tyler Reddick |
| Christopher Bell +325 → +575 | Christopher Bell 6.7% | Joey Logano 12.3% | Shane van Gisbergen |
| Kyle Larson +625 → +1200 | Kyle Larson 5.4% | Christopher Bell 9.4% | Joey Logano |
How to bet on NASCAR at New Hampshire
When betting on flat short tracks like New Hampshire, there are several factors to keep in mind, especially as they pertain to a driver’s background. Since New Hampshire is a playoff race this go-round, it’s also essential to consider the consequences of its placement in the schedule:
- Know a driver’s situation. Since this is the first race in the Round of 12, playoff drivers who aren’t in race-winning equipment may opt to prioritize points, possibly by risking their end-of-race finishing position for stage or playoff points, which may ultimately affect the outcome.
- Know a driver’s background. Flat short tracks are common throughout the U.S., but drivers with backgrounds in open-wheel modifieds may have an advantage as those vehicles race at this kind of venue exclusively. We saw Aric Almirola, who grew up racing such cars, snag a win in underfunded equipment in 2021.
- Check out recent results at flat short tracks. There is no shortage of flat short tracks on the Cup Series schedule, especially in the postseason. Venues like Phoenix, Richmond, Iowa, Gateway, and Martinsville all compare favorably to New Hampshire.
Past Mobil 1 301 winners
Here is a look at the last 10 winners at New Hampshire Motor Speedway entering Sunday's race.
| Year | Driver | Team | Manufacturer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Christopher Bell | Joe Gibbs Racing | Toyota |
| 2023 | Martin Truex Jr. | Joe Gibbs Racing | Toyota |
| 2022 | Christopher Bell | Joe Gibbs Racing | Toyota |
| 2021 | Aric Almirola | Stewart-Haas Racing | Ford |
| 2020 | Brad Keselowski | Team Penske | Ford |
| 2019 | Kevin Harvick | Stewart-Haas Racing | Ford |
| 2018 | Kevin Harvick | Stewart-Haas Racing | Ford |
| Fall 2017 | Kyle Busch | Joe Gibbs Racing | Toyota |
| Summer 2017 | Denny Hamlin | Joe Gibbs Racing | Toyota |
| Fall 2016 | Kevin Harvick | Stewart-Haas Racing | Chevrolet |
How to watch the 2025 Mobil 1 301 at New Hampshire
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 21
- Start time: 2 p.m. ET
- Track: New Hampshire Motor Speedway
- TV: USA Network
Mobil 1 301 FAQs
Who is favored to win the Mobil 1 301?
Per BetMGM, Ryan Blaney is the favorite to win the 2025 Mobile 1 301 at New Hampshire at odds of +275 (26.67%), which would yield a $27.50 profit on a winning $10 bet.
What are the odds for the Mobil 1 301?
Ryan Blaney (+275), Joey Logano (+465), Christopher Bell (+575), Denny Hamlin (+675), and William Byron (+725) top the NASCAR odds to win in New Hampshire.
What time is the 2025 Mobil 1 301?
The 2025 Mobil 1 301 starts at 2 p.m. ET (USA) on Sunday, Sept. 21, at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
How to watch the 2025 Mobil 1 301
You can watch the Mobil 1 301 on USA Network.
Who won the Mobil 1 301 last year?
1 sentence on last year's winner, and ideally their raceday odds or opening odds if you can find them.
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