2025 FireKeepers Casino 400 Predictions at Michigan: Best NASCAR Expert Picks Today

The NASCAR Cup Series rolls into the Motor City this weekend for the 2025 FireKeepers Casino 400. We break down the latest odds and highlight our NASCAR expert picks and predictions for Michigan, including a +650 bet on Kyle Larson.

Today's race is set to begin at 2 p.m. ET, streaming exclusively on Amazon Prime.

📊 FireKeepers Casino 400 odds & favorites at Michigan

Here are the latest FireKeepers Casino 400 odds and favorites at BetMGM:

🥇 FireKeepers Casino 400 betting favorites 🥇

• Denny Hamlin, +525 ($10 to win $52.50)
• Kyle Larson, +600 ($10 to win $60)
• William Byron, +800 ($10 to win $80)
• Tyler Reddick, +800 ($10 to win $80)
• Ryan Blaney, +1100 ($10 to win $110)
• Christopher Bell, +1200 ($10 to win $120)
• Chris Buescher, +1200 ($10 to win $120)
• Ty Gibbs, +1600 ($10 to win $160)
• Chase Briscoe, +2000 ($10 to win $200)
• Joey Logano, +2200 ($10 to win $220)
• Bubba Wallace, +2200 ($10 to win $220)
• Kyle Busch, +2200 ($10 to win $220)
• Ross Chastain, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
• Chase Elliott, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
• Alex Bowman, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
• Carson Hocevar, +2500 ($10 to win $250)
• Brad Keselowski, +2500 ($10 to win $250)

Claim our BetMGM bonus code, SBRBONUS, to receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets by placing a wager of any amount on the FireKeepers Casino 400 or any other market!

🏁 FireKeepers Casino 400 predictions, expert picks & best bets at Michigan

Michigan International Speedway is a two-mile, D-shaped oval. Its smooth surface prevents tires from wearing out, and it compares most favorably to the high-speed intermediates that measure 1.5 miles in length. At this point in the schedule, we’ve seen action at four such tracks: Las Vegas, Kansas, Texas, and Charlotte.

Raw speed matters a ton at this type of venue. With ample comparator track data to help us, it’s clear to see that the Chevrolets from Hendrick Motorsports lead the way in raw speed. A Hendrick driver paced in the field in average green flag speed at all four comparator events. As a result, I predict Kyle Larson will win the FireKeeprs Casino 400 at Michigan.

🏆 Pick to win FireKeepers Casino 400: Kyle Larson ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Larson didn’t deliver for us in the Coca-Cola 600 a few weeks ago, but he had the disadvantage of running the Indianapolis 500–and commuting from it–that weekend. Still, Larson led the way in average green flag speed at Las Vegas, Kansas, and Texas, so it’s fair to project him for a bounce-back showing here.

His incredible Michigan resume is also worth noting. Even before Larson joined Hendrick Motorsports, he racked up three straight wins here in 2016 and 2017. He has yet to find Victory Lane at Michigan since, but he has two top 5s and three top 10s in the four starts he has made at this track in the No. 5 Chevrolet.

Larson’s three Michigan wins make him the winningest active driver here, so getting a $65 profit from a $10 bet at FanDuel on him to win is a solid payday, especially when you consider that the other best sports betting sites are charging between +600 and +500 for him to take the checkered flag on Sunday.

Best odds: +650 via FanDuel

💎 Best value bet to win FireKeepers Casino 400: Chase Elliott ⭐⭐⭐⭐

While two of Elliott’s teammates at Hendrick, Larson and Byron, are off to a hot start, the pilot of the No. 9 Chevrolet is not. He is yet to find Victory Lane this year. With just one win to his name since the start of the 2023 season, Elliott may not be the most attractive bet on the board. Still, getting him at +2000 on BetMGM is far too good of a deal to pass up.

Elliott scored his lone win of the past three seasons at Texas, another high-speed intermediate, last season. His teammates have certainly brought race-winning speed to these tracks this season, and while the results haven’t been there for Elliott, the green-flag speed is encouraging. Elliott ranked fifth in the metric at Kansas and seventh at Charlotte.

His last three Michigan starts haven’t ended well, but Elliott came into the sport looking like a sure thing to win at this track. He finished second here in three consecutive races here from 2016 to 2017. Elliott needs to right the ship, but with a team like Hendrick backing him, it’s more of a question of when he’ll do so, not if.

Buy the dip at BetMGM – Elliott is as short as +1300 on other books.

Best odds: +2000 via BetMGM

🎯 Best long shot to win FireKeepers Casino 400: Ryan Preece ⭐⭐⭐

RFK Racing won this race in 2023 with Chris Buescher. Team owner Brad Keselowski has yet to win here despite having an average finish of 12th with nine top 5 and 15 top 10s over 27 starts. While Buescher and Keselowski are getting plenty of respect from the sportsbooks, their teammate, Ryan Preece, is not.

Preece will benefit from the data his teammates have from this track. He will also benefit from piloting a fast No. 60 Ford. While he didn’t win any of the earlier races at high-speed intermediates, his average green flag speed consistently ranked between 10th and 15th across the four events. 

He may need some attrition to score a win on Sunday, but a $650 profit from a simple $10 bet at DraftKings is a fantastic deal. 

Best odds: +6500 via DraftKings

💰 Best FireKeepers Casino 400 prop bets & picks at Michigan

We’ll talk some more about one of our long shots to win at Michigan while identifying our best FireKeepers Casino 400 prop bets. Ryan Preece is a great play to score a top 10, before discussing someone even further down the board who the sportsbooks are overlooking.

🔥 Best prop bet for FireKeepers Casino 400: Ryan Preece Top 10 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

With Preece’s top 10 odds listed at +275 on Hard Rock and +270 on FanDuel, we’re getting a steal of a deal on both sites. We’ve got a 36-car entry list on tap for SundayMic, so the raw odds of anyone scoring a top 10 are 27.8%. Since +270 implies odds of 27%, we’re beating that number slightly on both sites. Most other books have Preece between +190 and +250.

Preece hasn’t been in good equipment in the Cup Series, but he still owns a solid average finish of 18.1 here, all things considered, making Michigan his third-best track at venues where he has at least three starts. This includes a seventh-place finish for JTG Daughtery in 2019 and an 11th-place finish for Stewart-Haas Racing last season.

A few other data points suggest this line is inefficient. The journeyman driver now has five top 10s this season in 14 starts (35%). When we filter to just high-speed intermediates, he has three in four starts (75%), with the lone exception coming after an accident. The No. 60 Ford hasn’t failed to bring speed to these tracks this season, so trust them to do so this weekend.

Best odds: +275 via Hard Rock Bet

🚀 Best long-shot prop bet for FireKeepers Casino 400: Ty Dillon Top 10 ⭐⭐⭐

Gone are the days of cashing quadruple-digit top 10 wagers for guys like John Hunter Nemechek and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. at high-speed intermediates. The books (well, FanDuel) have wisened up, and those drivers are now +650 and +600 this weekend, respectively. Now, we have to turn to Ty Dillon for such a ticket.

The Kaulig Racing cars have shown a surprising amount of speed on high-speed intermediates. A.J. Allmendinger just finished fourth at Charlotte after ranking fourth in average green-flag speed. His teammate, Ty Dillon, finished 19th after ranking 19th. Dillon also finished 12th at Texas just a few weeks earlier.

Dillon will probably need a lot of attrition or a late-race strategy call to score a top-10 result on Sunday, but I’ve seen enough from Kaulig to throw a dart on him here. Allmendinger is in the +300 to +400 range for a top 10, so getting his teammate at this price is a solid deal.

Best odds: +2200 via FanDuel

📈 FireKeepers Casino 400 trends & Michigan International Speedway history

Here are a few FireKeepers Casino 400 trends to consider before betting on Sunday's race at Michigan International Speedway

🏎️ Blue Oval Dominance? Nine of the last 10 winners at Michigan have been behind the wheel of a Ford. With the manufacturer’s headquarters just miles away, this is as much of a “home track” as  you’ll see for the Detroit-based automaker.

🏎️ Coming up Toyota. The last two Michigan races saw a Toyota driver lead the field in driver rating, with Martin Truex Jr. doing so in 2023 and Tyler Reddick doing so (en route to a win) in 2024. 

🏎️ Win the first stage, lose the race. The last three winners of the first stage at Michigan have gone on to finish no better than second. Two of them failed to even finish inside the top 15! This means that live betting opportunities may be especially valuable this weekend.

💡 How to bet on NASCAR at Michigan

Handicapping high-speed intermediates is all about projecting raw speed. Equipment is often shorthand for raw speed, as drivers in the best cars tend to do best at tracks like this one, and, with less tire wear, equipment management matters much less. Here are my NASCAR betting strategy tips for Michigan: 

• Practice makes perfect. It’s hard to know who will unload fast each weekend, but reading through the consecutive 10-lap average speeds from practice can generally give you a good idea–make sure to check that data out before getting your money down.
• Ford’s dominance at Michigan is more noise than signal. Since the NextGen Era began in 2022, the Blue Ovals have won two of three events. None of those drivers led the field in driver rating, and the drivers that did all piloted cars that weren’t Fords.

🏆 Past FireKeepers Casino 400 winners

Here is a look at the last 10 FireKeepers Casino 400 winners entering Sunday's race.

📺 How to watch the 2025 FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan

📅 Race date: Sunday, June 8, 2025
🕒 Start time: 2 p.m. ET
📍 Track: Michigan International Speedway (Brooklyn, Mich.)
📺 TV & Streaming: Amazon Prime

❓ FireKeepers Casino 400 FAQs

Who is favored to win the FireKeepers Casino 400?

Kyle Larson is the favorite to win the FireKeepers Casino 400 at odds of +525 on BetMGM, which would yield a $52.5 profit on a $10 bet.

What are the odds for the FireKeepers Casino 400?

Behind Larson, Denny Hamlin (+600) and Ryan Blaney (+650) are projected to be contenders in the 2025 FireKeepers Casino 400.

What time is the 2025 FireKeepers Casino 400?

The 2025 FireKeepers Casino 400 starts at 2 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime) on Sunday, June 8, from Michigan International Speedway.

How to watch the 2025 FireKeepers Casino 400

You can watch the FireKeepers Casino 400 on Amazon Prime.

Who won the FireKeepers Casino 400 last year?

Tyler Reddick came in at +1200 to win the NASCAR Cup Series race at Michigan last year.

💵 Best NASCAR betting sites

Want to bet on the FireKeepers Casino 400? Check out the best sports betting sites and best sportsbook promos for the race this weekend:

• FanDuel Promo Code
• DraftKings Promo Code
• Hard Rock Bet Promo Code

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.