🏎️ NASCAR Predictions at COTA 2026: DuraMAX Texas Grand Prix Picks, Best Bets & Odds

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Austin, Texas, with the DuraMAX Texas Grand Prix on Sunday (3:30 p.m. ET), and we're breaking down all of our NASCAR predictions at COTA for for the first road course race of the season.

Shane van Gisbergen is the betting favorite to win the Texas Grand Prix after finishing sixth last year, while Trackhouse Racing teammate Connor Zilisch is priced right behind him with the rookie among the favorites to pick up the first Cup Series win of his career.

Here's a look at my expert picks for Sunday's race at COTA with my analysis for all of my best bets and prop picks this week.

💰 My best NASCAR bets at COTA

Here's a look at the actual bets I'm placing for the DuraMAX Texas Grand Prix with the best odds from all of our best sports betting apps at the time of writing:

Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: 11.35 units

💡 How I'm betting NASCAR at COTA

I'll be honest: this is not my favorite to bet on the calendar, as road races tend to be messy and often dominated by one driver (SVG), who tends to be priced beyond value whenever he gets behind the wheel at a road course.

That said, oddsmakers are curiously bearish on SVG's chances to win relative to his success on tracks like this one after his sixth-place finish in this race last season. So I'm dropping two units on the favorite while sprinking a few bets on other drivers who could challenge him down the stretch and return a massive payday if they do.

For your own bet slips this weekend, it's paramount to focus on previous road course experience at COTA and similar tracks like Watkins Glen, Sonoma, Mexico City, the Charlotte Roval (RIP), and even the Chicago Street Race. And guess who won all five of those races last year?

🏆 Best bet to win Texas Grand Prix

Shane van Gisbergen to win NASCAR at COTA (+120)

The greatest road course racer in the history of NASCAR - and it's not even close - and the winner at the last five road courses on the Cup Series circuit is dealing at plus-money odds to win the first road race of the season. Does that make any sense to you?

Yes, SVG finished sixth in last year's road race at COTA, but he led 23 laps last year and finished in the top five in both stages. With a course like this one placing a premium on handling and tire wear, it's more of a coincidence than anything that this is the one road course that van Gisbergen hasn't conquered - he even made a training video on how to win there.

If you think there's a greater than 50% chance of SVG winning this weekend, as I do, then you simply have to jump on these odds before they potentially disappear after qualifying and in the lead-up to the race.

If you're nervous about Zilisch (+450) usurping his teammate on Sunday, you can bet on Trackhouse Racing (-165) to win the race at a slightly better value than betting on each driver individually. But I'm skeptical that Zilisch will win this race after a 37th-place finish in his Cup Series debut last year, and I have no such concerns with the road race king.

🏁 More NASCAR picks to win at COTA

While van Gisbergen is clearly the dominant driver in this field, he didn't win last year's race at COTA and could succumb to mechanical issues or just straight get beat on Sunday.

While I don't necessarily expect that to happen - I wouldn't be laying two units on SVG if I did - NASCAR betting is all about playing the percentages. And there are a few drivers in the field who are worth targeting and adding to your overall betting portolio this week.

Tyler Reddick to win Texas Grand Prix (+1600, 0.5u)

Reddick won the first two races of the season entering this week, and COTA is arguably his best track across his career with five straight top-five finishes and a win in 2023. He won the pole ahead of last year's race and eventual third-place finish, so I'm rather shocked he's dealing at such long odds - it's worth taking advantage early.

Chase Elliott to win Texas Grand Prix (+2200, 0.25u)

There was a time when Elliott was the best road course ace in the entire field, but NASCAR's most popular driver is yet to win a single race on a road course in the Next Gen era (since 2022). That doesn't mean he isn't capable, though, having finished fourth in two of his last three races at COTA. It's hard to ignore the value at this price for a breakthrough on Sunday.

Chris Buescher to win Texas Grand Prix (+3000, 0.25u)

In a world without SVG, you could argue that Buescher is the best road course driver in the field ... or at least the most consistent. He's finished on the lead lap in 40 straight road course races, the longest streak in NASCAR history, and he's tied with Reddick for the most top-10 finishes (17) on road courses in the Next Gen era (more on that later). He's only led one lap at this track, but at 30/1 odds, he's well worth the gamble.

🔥 Best NASCAR prop bets at COTA

I'm only backing two drivers with my NASCAR prop picks this week, and neither are SVG. Instead, I'm targeting two of my other picks to win with top finish props that have proven awfully profitable in recent years at this track.

Tyler Reddick top-5 finish (+250, 0.5u)

I really don't understand the price on this prop whatsoever. Reddick has finished in the top five in all four races at COTA in the Next Gen era, leading a combined 53 laps in that stretch, and he boasted the third-highest average finish at road courses last year. This should be priced much closer to even money, so I'll gladly load up on more Reddick stock.

Chris Buescher top-10 finish (+120, 0.5u)

Remember when I said Buescher had the most top-10 finishes of any road course driver in the Next Gen era? That includes three straight top-10s at COTA, where he finished seventh last year after a pair of eighth-place finishes. This is another bet that I'm surprised is still dealing at plus-money - it might not be for long.

📈 NASCAR betting insights for COTA

Here's a look at the latest betting insights from BetMGM for Sunday's race at COTA:

📺 How to watch NASCAR at COTA: 2026 DuraMAX Texas Grand Prix

• Date: Sunday, March 1
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Circuit of the Americas (Austin, Texas)
• TV: FOX
• Track: 2.4-mile, 17-turn road course (228 miles in 95 laps)