Daytona 500 Predictions 2026: NASCAR Picks & Best Bets Today

It's finally here! The first full race of the NASCAR Cup Series schedule begins today at 1:30 p.m. ET (FOX) with 500 miles of unbridled chaos, and my Daytona 500 predictions attempt to sift through the potential carnage to start the season with a profit.

I'm breaking down exactly how I'm betting the Daytona 500 myself while tracking every outright race winner pick and prop bet across the full season. You can follow all of my picks below and sweat out the Great American Race along with me - I'll include my full bet slip with all of my actual Daytona 500 bets at the end of the article.

💡 How I'm betting the Daytona 500

As I broke down in my early Daytona 500 predictions, this isn't a race for the faint-hearted: worthy contenders will end up in the garage by no fault of their own as lesser drivers ride the draft all the way to the front of the pack in the closing laps. 

That, my friends, is the beauty of the Daytona 500. It's wildly unpredictable while featuring some of the most thrilling racing on the Cup Series schedule with speeds approaching 200 mph and roughly 40-50 lead changes expected across 200 laps. And even the best drivers will fall victim to "The Big One" at some point along the way.

That's why I'd recommend splitting up your bankroll into smaller wagers for this race than you might otherwise target on a normal race weekend. While I'm wagering just over 5 units on this race - it is the Great American Race, after all - I'm only betting more than 1 unit on a single wager. Embrace the inevitability and unpredictability of this race, and you'll find yourself hooked on NASCAR betting (if you aren't already).

🏆 Best bet to win the Daytona 500

Joey Logano to win Daytona 500 (+1200, 2u)

You don't have to use your imagination here - Logano won the Daytona 500 in his first try back in 2015 and took the first Daytona Duel on Thursday (as I predicted in my preview) to give himself an enviable spot in the second row. He's also been the best superspeedway driver in the Next Gen era, leading the field in percentage of laps run in the top 3, top 5, top 10, and top 20.

The No. 22 car should have won this race last year if not for a boneheaded attempt by Ricky Stenhouse Jr. to fend him off in the final stage of the race that resulted in one of multiple wrecks in last year's race. Logano still led the second-most laps (43) and looked like the best car in the field; at these odds, I love the value on him cashing in this time.

If you place this wager at bet365, you can also get boosted odds to +1400 with one of the best sportsbook promos ahead of the Daytona 500.

🏁 More Daytona 500 picks to win

While Logano is my prediction to win the Daytona 500, it pays to sprinkle a few smaller bets on other drivers with a legitimate chance to reach Victory Lane - especially those who are priced as secondary options despite featuring a winner's profile.

Austin Cindric to win Daytona 500 (+1800, 1u)

Cindric won this race as a rookie in 2022, and he led a race-high 59 laps a year ago and led on the final lap before the final "Big One" took out half the field. So why is he priced as such a long shot here with just a 5.26% chance to win, according to our odds converter?

It pays to have reliable teammates on drafting tracks like this one, and Cindric benefits from having two Team Penske drivers among the favorites in Logano and Ryan Blaney - two of the best superspeedway savants in the field. While he doesn't have the name recognition of his teammates, he should be dealing at shorter odds than this.

Chris Buescher to win Daytona 500 (+3000, 0.5u)

Buescher is another driver I highlighted in my early predictions, as he's been statistically the best driver at Daytona over the last four years in terms of average finish (8.3) while finishing in the top 10 in four of his 10 career Daytona 500 starts.

He also benefits from having a strong support system today with RFK Racing teammates Brad Keselowski and Ryan Preece likely to link up with the No. 17 Ford Mustang across the 500-mile race. Given that he's dealing at longer odds than either of those two drivers, I can't help but sprinkle a small sum on his outright odds this week.

Ross Chastain to win Daytona 500 (+4000, 0.25u)

The math doesn't love this bet as much as I do having watched Chastain with my own two eyes - he's one of the most aggressive drivers in the field, and I simply can't leave him off my bet slip at these 40/1 odds to win his first Daytona 500 today.

He came close two years ago with a gutsy last-lap pass attempt on race winner William Byron that ended in calamity and a 21st-place finish. He followed that up with a 40th-place finish last year. But he's scored three top-10s (2019, 2021, 2023) in his five tries before that, and that's enough for me to sprinkle a few bucks on the No. 1 car today.

🔥 Best Daytona 500 prop bets

I already broke down all of the Daytona 500 prop bets with my assessment of every major market and my best bets for each, so I won't go too deep into my analysis here. But here's a look at the actual Daytona 500 prop bets I've placed for today's race.

Note that I'm not including any "top finish" props (T3, T5, T10), as I'd rather chase the higher payout for an outright winner bet (or winning group bet) given the volatility at Daytona. A great day on the track can result in a P1 or P40 - I'm less motivated to cut my profit in a third for a top-3 bet in a race with so much mayhem.

Ford winning manufacturer (+200, 0.5u)

I love the value of this bet on the surface - the best drivers in the field are Fords, and there is power in numbers at Daytona as we saw in the Duels - but what I especially love these +200 odds at DraftKings considering this wager is priced as short as +135 elsewhere. I'd play it at either number, at this price it's a must-play for me. If I wasn't so invested in Team Penske and RFK Racing, I'd make it a full unit bet.

Team Penske winning team (+390, 0.5u)

Speaking of Team Penske ... I can't get enough of the trio of Logano, Blaney, and Cindric. I could probably leave this one off my bet slip and just add Blaney into the mix, but I don't love the value on him as a short favorite, while I do still like the insurance here of having all three drivers at +390 odds.

Over 44.5 most laps led by any driver (+125, 0.2u)

This isn't the most "fun" bet to make ahead of a race known for chaos and unpredictability, but we saw Cindric fly past this number last year with 59 laps led followed by Logano (43) and Blaney (23). If any of those three jump out front early on in this race, we could cash this bet by the end of Stage 2.

Kyle Busch top Chevrolet (+700, 0.2u)

When I gave out this bet on Saturday afternoon, Busch was still among the second tier of drivers in the outright market. Now he's listed as a favorite at some shops, yet he's still catching +700 odds to be the best Chevrolet driver? I'm all over this one and doubling my investment from 0.1 units to 0.2 units - nothing crazy, but there's legitimate value here.

Joey Logano top Ford (+400, 0.1u)

There isn't much to say about this bet that I didn't already cover above in my breakdown for why Logano will win the race. The blue ovals are the toughest group to lead, in my view, but we're getting plenty of value at these +400 odds at BetMGM as a hedge on Logano in case he excels today but is nipped late by a Chevy or Toyota.

Chase Briscoe top Toyota (+650, 0.1u)

Doesn't this feel a little too generous for Briscoe? He finished fourth last year in his first race ever for Joe Gibbs Racing and will start on the front row today. Track position matters less at Daytona than other tracks, but it's not irrelevant, and I don't see why the No. 19 car should be priced as such an afterthought among Toyota drivers.

💰 My best Daytona 500 bets today

Here's a look at the actual bets I'm placing for the Daytona 500 with the best odds from all of our best sports betting apps at the time of writing:

Total wagered: 5.35 units | Max profit: 27.9 units

💡 More Daytona 500 predictions

• Daytona 500 odds & betting favorites
• Daytona 500 prop bets
• Daytona 500 AI predictions
• Early Daytona 500 predictions
• NASCAR Cup Series championship odds & preseason picks

📺 How to watch Daytona 500 2026

• Date: Sunday, Feb. 15
• Time: 1:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Daytona International Speedway (Daytona Beach, Fla.)
• TV: FOX