2026 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Odds, Preseason Futures & Best Bets

After the Clash last weekend, the NASCAR season officially starts on Sunday with the Daytona 500 (2:30 p.m. ET, FOX) to kick off a new era for the Cup Series: the return of "The Chase" to determine the NASCAR champion in November.

Below, I break down the NASCAR championship odds and futures with my analysis of the preseason odds and best bet for every major market at Caesars, which has the most robust selection of markets, but you can find many of these bets across any of the best sports betting sites under "NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds."

You can also see my breakdown of the latest Daytona 500 odds for this weekend's race, including my favorite bet for Sunday near the end of the article.

🏆 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds

NASCAR championship odds via Caesars as of Wednesday, Feb. 11.

Market analysis

Fresh off his second NASCAR Cup Series championship victory, Kyle Larson (+450) enters the season as the consensus favorite to win his third title since 2021 - which would make him the first repeat champion since Jimmie Johnson won five straight from 2006-10.

This year's switch to the Chase format - which replaces the playoff system from the last 11 years with a 16-driver, 10-race postseason that should reduce the volatility of a one-race championship - should benefit drivers like Larson and rival Denny Hamlin (+500), who have been the two most consistent drivers over the last few years.

My best bet

It was only two years ago that Ryan Blaney (+650) broke through for his first Cup Series championship, and while his team benefitted from the one-race title at Phoenix Raceway, Blaney has proven himself to be one of the most complete drivers in the field. He won four races last year while ranking fifth in laps led (852) and tying for first in top-fives (15). He came on strong to end last season and should be one of the biggest threats all year.

Favorite long shot

There's been a lot of buzz this offseason about Chris Buescher (+5000) and the improvements at RFK Racing heading into the 2026 season. He finished in the top 10 in the regular-season points standings last year while posting the sixth-best average finish (14.3) among full-time drivers across the full season. Buescher is a top-tier talent in the Cup Series and is worth targeting in the preseason before he starts winning races.

🔧 2026 NASCAR championship winning team odds

NASCAR winning team odds via Caesars as of Wednesday, Feb. 11.

Market analysis

It's no surprise to see Hendrick Motorsports (+110) lead the way with a star-studded garage featuring Larson, William Byron, Chase Elliott, and Alex Bowman. They're slotted just ahead of Joe Gibbs Racing (+150), which has the talent to win with Hamlin, Chase Briscoe, Christopher Bell, and Ty Gibbs but faces uncertainty next season with Director of Competition Chris Gabehart leaving the organization this offseason.

My best bet

It's pretty hard for me to bet against Team Penske (+450) given its track record as a championship organization - winning three of the last four NASCAR titles - and its competitive advantage at superspeedways and flat tracks, which still make up a significant portion of the Cup Series schedule. With Blaney, Joey Logano, and Austin Cindric all capable of winning any given week, I like the value here below the favorite tier but above the lower-tier organizations that have virtually no chance at a title.

Favorite long shot

With Buescher as our best long shot to win the title, it makes sense to bet RFK Racing (+2200) with former champion Brad Keselowski and up-and-comer Ryan Preece included in that bet. I'm especially intrigued by Preece, who finished just outside the top 10 in average finish (15.7) behind Blaney and Logano last season. The speed is real with this group, and it's the only team I'd be targeting beyond the three favorites.

🚗 2026 NASCAR championship winning manufacturer odds

NASCAR winning manufacturer odds via Caesars as of Wednesday, Feb. 11.

Market analysis

With Hendrick Motorsports as its flagship team, Chevrolet (+115) is sitting as the clear favorite to repeat as champion after Larson helped the bowties capture their fifth straight manufacturer championship. It's important to remember this market is determined by full-season points and not just the final champion, which is how Chevy can claim five straight titles even without boasting the winning team or driver every year.

My best bet

Last season wasn't the best showing for Ford (+360) with just seven wins in 36 races, but I'm still surprised to see the blue ovals dealing as such a heavy underdog in this market with both Team Penske and RFK Racing featuring championship-worthy drivers. The bench is deep at Ford, and if I'm betting this early in the year, I'm taking the steep plus-money value in a market with just three competitors.

🏁 2026 NASCAR Over/Under season race wins odds

NASCAR O/U race win odds via Caesars as of Wednesday, Feb. 11.

Market analysis

Larson enters the season in a tier of his own with an O/U of 4.5 wins after taking the checkered flag just three times last year. Even after winning six races last year, Hamlin sits second in this market with an O/U of 3.5 wins - tied with Byron, Blaney, and Bell - with Briscoe the only other driver expected to win three or more races in 2026.

My best bets

With a market like this one, there are so many compelling value bets that double as motivating factors to root for a driver throughout the entire season and stress out the results of every race - so, the perfect type of preseason market.

Here are my favorite O/U race wins bets for the 2026 season:

• Ryan Blaney Over 3.5 wins (+110): Blaney won four races last year after back-to-back seasons with three wins apiece, so this feels like solid value for one of the best drivers in the field to repeat (or improve upon) his success from last year. This is a safer way to bet on a strong season from Blaney if you don't like his title chances as much as I do.
• Chase Elliott Under 1.5 wins (+110): NASCAR's most popular driver has also been one of its most consistent behind the wheel over the last decade, though wins have been hard to come by with just three combined trips to Victory Lane over the last three seasons. With the Chase rewarding the type of steady, low-risk points focus that suits Elliott, I don't expect him to be gunning for wins in 2026, making this a solid value.
• Joey Logano Over 1.5 wins (-175): The two-time champion has won multiple races in five of the last eight seasons, and he probably should have won more than once last year if not for a series of late crashes in position to win. There's no way I won't have some exposure to "Even Year Logano" on my full-season betting portfolio.
• Chris Buescher Over 0.5 wins (-170): Buescher came oh-so-close to reaching Victory Lane last year but came up empty despite five top-five finishes and 16 races in the top 10. He won at least one race in three straight years before last season, so I'm buying a bounce-back performance from the No. 17 team in 2026.
• Ty Gibbs Over 0.5 wins (-110): At some point the kid is going to win a race, right? Gibbs led 304 laps last season, which ranked just outside the top 10 and ahead of fellow Toyota stars like Bell (282) and Tyler Reddick (169), and he ran the fifth-most miles of any driver. If he can put it all together just once in 36 races, we'd cash this bet.

🌴 2026 Daytona 500 odds & predictions

Daytona 500 via Caesars as of Wednesday, Feb. 11.

Market analysis

It's a wide-open field at Daytona with Blaney, Logano, and Byron among the favorites across the board. It's typical to see long odds for every driver ahead of a superspeedway race like this one, where big crashes are commonplace and pack racing condenses the field in late-race situations, so I'd recommend diversifying your bets to avoid being too invested in any one particular driver - that can be a costly mistake at Daytona.

My best bets

I broke down all of my Daytona 500 predictions and expert picks earlier this week, including my best bet to win the season opener and my favorite long shots at Daytona. Check back later in the week for even more Daytona 500 picks entering the weekend.

🤔 Should you bet NASCAR preseason futures?

The best part about the NASCAR season is that it lasts nine months. The worst part about betting on NASCAR preseason futures is that they take nine months to pay out.

That's why I typically stay away from the favorites in the preseason while targeting drivers with longer odds who could see a dramatic shift in odds if they win a race (or a few). For those with that success already priced in, I like to wait until closer to the postseason or even the title race before investing large amounts in those markets.

Some futures markets won't be available during the season, including preseason win total bets for drivers, so it pays to bet early on those types of bets. They can be an especially fun way to follow a driver throughout the season with a rooting interest for every single race without needing to place 36 separate bets on that driver to win.