NASCAR AI Picks at Las Vegas Today: ChatGPT's Predictions for 2025 South Point 400

Our NASCAR AI predictions are back for the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, which begins today at 5:30 p.m. ET (USA Network) in the first race of the Round of 8 in the NASCAR playoffs.

We asked ChatGPT for its NASCAR at Las Vegas predictions based on historical data, betting odds, and statistical trends - including its pick to win, best prop bet, favorite long shot, and results for every driver for today's 38-car field.

Along with our 2025 South Point 400 predictions at Las Vegas, here are our AI-powered NASCAR best bets and full AI-simulated finishing order:

🏆 Best NASCAR pick to win at Las Vegas

🏎️ William Byron

• Racing team: No. 24 (Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet)
• Starting position: 5th
• Best odds: +600 via Caesars ($10 to win $60)

✅ Why William Byron wins at Las Vegas

1. Elite Intermediate Track Program
Byron has been the most consistently fast driver on 1.5-mile tracks over the past two seasons. Hendrick Motorsports has dialed in the intermediate package, and Byron enters Vegas with one of the best long-run averages in practice, outpacing the other playoff contenders over 5–30 lap sequences.

2. Vegas Track Record & Starting Spot
Byron’s average finish at Las Vegas is among the best in the field, and he’s finished top-5 in three of his last four Vegas starts, including a win in spring 2023. Starting 5th gives him clean-air access early without the dirty air that plagues mid-pack runners, a critical advantage on this surface.

3. Momentum + Closing Speed
Byron has been a closer all season - his late-run pace has repeatedly allowed him to run down leaders, and Hendrick’s pit crew has been sharp in high-leverage playoff moments. With Larson and Bell alongside him, he has legitimate race-winning speed, but Byron’s combination of balance, clean air, and playoff composure makes him the pick.

🔢 AI simulation for William Byron

• Projected finish: 1st
• Simulated odds to win: 14.5%
• Confidence rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4 out of 5 stars)

🎯 Best NASCAR prop bet at Las Vegas

🏎️ Ty Gibbs

• Racing team: No. 54 (Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota)
• Starting position: 10th
• Best odds: +650 via FanDuel ($10 to win $65)

✅ Why Ty Gibbs finishes top-5 at Las Vegas

1. Blistering Practice Speed
Gibbs was fastest overall in practice, showing immediate pace in both short and long runs. His single-lap speed translated into a solid 10th-place qualifying run, putting him in prime position to hang with the lead pack early without burning tires in dirty air.

2. Breakthrough Intermediate Form
Gibbs’ progression on 1.5-mile tracks has been one of the big under-the-radar stories of the season. He has three top-10s and two top-5s on intermediates since May, and Toyota’s JGR/23XI camp has clearly closed the gap to Hendrick on these layouts.

3. Top-5 Probability Exceeds Market
At +650, Gibbs is priced like a fringe contender, but the simulation gives him a 29% chance to finish top-5 - significantly above the implied probability of 13.33%. With JGR’s front-row sweep and Gibbs’ raw speed, he has a legitimate shot to mix it up with the Byron/Larson/Bell tier if pit strategy falls his way.

🔢 AI simulation for Ty Gibbs

• Projected finish: 7th
• Simulated odds for top-5: 29%
• Confidence rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4 out of 5 stars)

🚀 Best NASCAR long shot at Las Vegas

🏎️ Brad Keselowski

• Racing team: No. 6 (RFK Racing Ford)
• Starting position: 34th
• Best odds: +4000 via BetMGM ($10 to win $400)

✅ Why Brad Keselowski can win at Las Vegas

1. Elite Strategic Operator on Intermediates
Keselowski is starting deep in the field, but he’s built a reputation as one of the savviest race strategists in the garage. At tracks like Vegas, RFK often rolls the dice on two-tire calls, short-pit cycles, or clean-air gambits that can flip track position late. It’s exactly how underdogs have stolen playoff races in recent years.

2. Proven Vegas Performer
Keselowski owns three career Cup wins at Las Vegas (2014, 2016, 2018) and has finished top-10 in 12 of 21 starts. Even if RFK doesn’t have raw top-3 speed, his track IQ and comfort here make him uniquely dangerous if chaos breaks out in the final stage.

3. Undervalued Due to Qualifying Position
Starting 34th massively inflates his odds, but intermediate races often feature long green-flag stretches where pit sequencing can create surprise contenders. If RFK nails a couple of cycles and he avoids dirty air trouble early, Keselowski could stay alive late and make this one of the sharpest deep plays on the board.

🔢 AI simulation for Brad Keselowski

• Projected finish: 16th
• Simulated odds to win: 2.3%
• Confidence rating: ⭐⭐ (2 out of 5 stars)

🤖 NASCAR AI projections today

Here is our predicted South Point 400 finishing order and results for every driver based on AI projections. While ChatGPT is a large language model and not specifically designed for predicting sporting events, it can spot trends or insights that NASCAR bettors might overlook.

🏁 Projected finish order at Las Vegas

1. William Byron (No. 24, Hendrick Motorsports) 🥇
2. Christopher Bell (No. 20, Joe Gibbs Racing) 🥈
3. Kyle Larson (No. 5, Hendrick Motorsports) 🥉
4. Denny Hamlin (No. 11, Joe Gibbs Racing)
5. Tyler Reddick (No. 45, 23XI Racing)
6. Chase Elliott (No. 9, Hendrick Motorsports)
7. Ty Gibbs (No. 54, Joe Gibbs Racing)
8. Joey Logano (No. 22, Team Penske)
9. Bubba Wallace (No. 23, 23XI Racing)
10. Ryan Blaney (No. 12, Team Penske)
11. Chris Buescher (No. 17, RFK Racing)
12. Chase Briscoe (No. 19, Joe Gibbs Racing)
13. Alex Bowman (No. 48, Hendrick Motorsports)
14. Ross Chastain (No. 1, Trackhouse Racing)
15. Kyle Busch (No. 8, Richard Childress Racing)
16. Brad Keselowski (No. 6, RFK Racing)
17. Ty Gibbs (No. 54, Joe Gibbs Racing)
18. Shane van Gisbergen (No. 88, Trackhouse Racing)
19. Daniel Suárez (No. 99, Trackhouse Racing)
20. Michael McDowell (No. 71, Spire Motorsports)
21. Ryan Preece (No. 60, RFK Racing)
22. Erik Jones (No. 43, Legacy Motor Club)
23. AJ Allmendinger (No. 16, Kaulig Racing)
24. Cole Custer (No. 41, Haas Factory Team)
25. Carson Hocevar (No. 77, Spire Motorsports)
26. Zane Smith (No. 38, Front Row Motorsports)
27. Noah Gragson (No. 4, Front Row Motorsports)
28. Justin Haley (No. 7, Spire Motorsports)
29. Austin Dillon (No. 3, Richard Childress Racing)
30. John Hunter Nemechek (No. 42, Legacy Motor Club)
31. Todd Gilliland (No. 34, Front Row Motorsports)
32. Josh Berry (No. 21, Wood Brothers Racing)
33. Austin Cindric (No. 2, Team Penske)
34. Riley Herbst (No. 35, 23XI Racing)
35. Ty Dillon (No. 10, Kaulig Racing)
36. Cody Ware (No. 51, Rick Ware Racing)
37. JJ Yeley (No. 44, NY Racing)
38. Katherine Legge (No. 78, Live Fast Motorsport)

💰 NASCAR AI picks for Las Vegas

🟢 NASCAR starting lineup today

Here's how the drivers will line up to start today's race

1. Denny Hamlin
2. Chase Briscoe
3. Christopher Bell
4. Chase Elliott
5. William Byron
6. Kyle Larson
7. Bubba Wallace
8. Tyler Reddick
9. Joey Logano
10. Ty Gibbs
11. Chris Buescher
12. Alex Bowman
13. Shane van Gisbergen
14. Ryan Blaney
15. Ross Chastain
16. Ryan Preece
17. Daniel Suarez
18. Michael McDowell
19. Erik Jones
20. AJ Allmendinger
21. Cole Custer
22. Carson Hocevar
23. Zane Smith
24. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
25. Austin Dillon
26. John Hunter Nemechek
27. Justin Haley
28. Noah Gragson
29. Josh Berry
30. Todd Gilliland
31. Austin Cindric
32. Kyle Busch
33. Riley Herbst
34. Brad Keselowski
35. Ty Dillon
36. Cody Ware
37. JJ Yeley
38. Katerine Legge