Mexican Grand Prix Odds & Predictions 2025: Who Will Sunday's F1 Race in Austin?
There's no shortage of excitement entering Sunday's race at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez, and my Mexican Grand Prix odds and prediction back the sizzling hot Dutchman to win his fourth race out of the last five.
Red Bull's Max Verstappen is the betting favorite (+125) for the third straight race, with the four-time defending champion trading in front of McLaren's Lando Norris (+250) and Oscar Piastri (+375). The F1 picks below feature Verstappen, Norris, and Charles Leclerc, who finished on the podium last week for the first time since the end of July. Sunday's race in Mexico City starts at 4 p.m. ET (ESPN).
Mexican Grand Prix odds & favorites 2025
Mexican Grand Prix odds to win via BetMGM:
| Driver | Odds | Implied probability | Profit on a $10 bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | +125 | 44.44% | $12.50 |
| Lando Norris | +250 | 28.57% | $25 |
| Oscar Piastri | +375 | 21.05% | $37.50 |
| George Russell | +900 | 10% | $90 |
| Charles Leclerc | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +2200 | 4.35% | $220 |
| Kimi Antonelli | +4000 | 2.44% | $400 |
| Fernando Alonso | +20000 | 0.50% | $2,000 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +20000 | 0.50% | $2,000 |
| Alex Albon | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Isack Hadjar | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Carlos Sainz | +30000 | 0.33% | $3,000 |
| Ollie Bearman | +30000 | 0.33% | $3,000 |
| Liam Lawson | +30000 | 0.33% | $3,000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +40000 | 0.25% | $4,000 |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | +40000 | 0.25% | $4,000 |
| Lance Stroll | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +100000 | 0.10% | $10,000 |
| Franco Colapinto | +100000 | 0.10% | $10,000 |
💰 Mexican Grand Prix predictions, expert picks & best bets to win
Here are my best Mexican Grand Prix predictions for Sunday's race at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez. It's the 19th race of the 24 scheduled for the 2025 season.
🏆 Pick to win Mexican Grand Prix: Max Verstappen ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Verstappen put on a clinic in Austin last weekend, leaving the United States Grand Prix with a clean sweep. He won the sprint qualifying, the sprint session, qualifying, and the race, cutting Piastri's drivers' championship lead to 40 points with six races remaining.
That alone is a phenomenal achievement after Verstappen faced a 104-point deficit four races ago. Verstappen has won in Mexico five times, the most of any driver.
He's only a year removed from securing the third of his three consecutive triumphs at the Mexican Grand Prix, and the performance difference between his Red Bull car and the MCL39 has decreased considerably over the last two months.
Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez is the third-slowest track on the grid, also favoring Verstappen and his slightly inferior car. The Dutchman hasn't finished below second in the last five races, a run that includes three victories. I expect him to carry that tidal wave of momentum into Sunday's Mexican GP.
A winning $10 bet at BetMGM will yield a $12.50 profit.
Best odds: +125 via BetMGM ($10 to win $12.50)
Implied probability: 44.44%
💎 Best value bet to win Mexican Grand Prix: Lando Norris ⭐⭐⭐
Norris is now just 15 points behind Piastri in the Drivers' Standings, and he's clearly been the best of the McLaren drivers since the end of August.
Unfortunately, he's up against an irrepressible Verstappen. Still, Norris has earned every chance to turn his fortunes around after finishing second in Mexico last year and securing the runner-up spot last week in Austin.
He's been on the podium after four of the last five races, including two second-place finishes. And he's finished ahead of Piastri in four consecutive races. I backed Norris to win his first championship in my recent Formula 1 prediction, and I stand by that pick. Let's see how he reacts to last week's Verstappen sweep.
A winning $10 bet at BetMGM would profit $25.
Best odds: +250 via BetMGM ($10 to win $25)
Implied probability: 28.57%
🎯 Best long shot to win Mexican Grand Prix: Charles Leclerc ⭐⭐
Leclerc enjoyed a strong showing at the US Grand Prix, snagging a podium finish for the first time in five races. And he looked good doing so. Just as importantly, Leclerc has produced an excellent track record in Mexico City, finishing on the podium in the last two races there. He's also placed fourth, fifth, and sixth at the Mexican Grand Prix.
However, Leclerc hasn't won a race all season, which is why this is only a two-star play. If he wins, you'll earn a $140 profit on a $10 bet. Of the best sports betting sites, DraftKings provides the best value.
Best odds: +1400 via DraftKings ($10 to win $140)
Implied probability: 6.67%
🏆 Past Mexican Grand Prix winners
Here is a look at the last nine Mexican Grand Prix winners.
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 🇪🇸 Carlos Sainz | Ferrari |
| 2023 | 🇳🇱 Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-Honda RBPT |
| 2022 | 🇳🇱 Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-RBPT |
| 2021 | 🇳🇱 Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-Honda |
| 2020 | Not held due to COVID-19 pandemic | Not held due to COVID-19 pandemic |
| 2019 | 🇬🇧 Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2018 | 🇳🇱 Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer |
| 2017 | 🇳🇱 Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer |
| 2016 | 🇬🇧 Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2015 | 🇩🇪 Nico Rosberg | Mercedes |
📈 Mexican Grand Prix trends & history
- The Mexican Grand Prix at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez in Mexico City returned to the F1 circuit in 2015 after a 23-year hiatus
- The first Mexican Grand Prix was held in 1962
- In 1963, the race became part of the Formula 1 World Championship
- The Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez is the third-slowest track on the F1 grid, with average speeds of 204.019km/h
- Only Marina Bay Circuit (198.648km/h) and Circuit de Monaco (170.958km/h) are slower
- The circuit was redesigned by Hermann Tilke ahead of F1’s return in 2015. A slow-speed stadium section was added, cutting off half of Peraltada final corner
- In 2021, Sergio Perez became the first Mexican driver to finish on the podium at the Mexican Grand Prix
- He finished on the podium again the following year
- In 2021, Verstappen became the first driver to record three wins at the Mexican Grand Prix
- Red Bull are the most successful team in Mexico, having taken five victories in Mexico City
- At 2,240 meters above sea level, the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez is by far the highest track, with the next highest in Brazil (765 meters)
- Verstappen is the only driver to have won two consecutively and three straight in Mexico (2018, 2019 and 2021 through 2023)
- There have been 12 different pole-sitters in the last 13 F1 races in Mexico. Leclerc is the only driver to have taken multiple poles here in that time frame.
- Only two of the last seven pole-sitters won the race, both of which came in the last three years (Verstappan in 2022 and Carlos Sainz in 2024)
- Verstappen has logged the most Mexican Grand Prix wins (five)
📺 How to watch the 2025 Mexican Grand Prix
- Race date: Sunday, Oct. 26
- Start time: 4 p.m. ET
- Track: Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez (Mexico City)
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: ESPN+
- Weather: 79 degrees, 3-mph to 7-mph winds, 20% chance of precipitation
🗓️ Mexican Grand Prix schedule
- Practice 1: Friday, Oct. 24; 2:30 p.m. ET
- Practice 2: Friday, Oct. 24; 6 p.m. ET
- Practice 3: Saturday, Oct. 25; 1:30 p.m. ET
- Qualifying: Saturday, Oct. 25; 5 p.m. ET
- Race: Sunday, Oct. 26; 4 p.m. ET
❓ Mexican Grand Prix FAQs
Who is favored to win the Mexican Grand Prix?
Max Vetstappen (+125) is the betting favorite to win the Mexican Grand Prix.
What are the odds for the Mexican Grand Prix?
Max Verstappen (+125), Lando Norris (+250), and Oscar Piastri (+375) top the Mexican Grand Prix odds to win.
What time is the 2025 Mexican Grand Prix?
The Mexican Grand Prix starts at 4 p.m. ET on Sunday, Oct. 26.
How to watch the 2025 Mexican Grand Prix
You can watch the Mexican Grand Prix on ESPN and ESPN+.
Who has won the most Mexican Grand Prix races?
Max Verstappen has the most Mexican Grand Prix wins (five).
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