Memorial Tournament Odds, Picks, and PGA Tour Preview: Stars are Out for Early US Open Preview

Odds, picks and preview for the PGA Tour's Memorial Tournament 2022. Don't miss out! SBR - trusted by bettors for over 20 years.

Esten McLaren

Last updated: May 31, 2022 6:10 AM EDT • 7 min read

Annually featuring one of the strongest non-major fields in golf, the Memorial Tournament will again serve as a warmup for the U.S. Open. We preview the 2022 Memorial Tournament odds with our top golf picks.

Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, OH, once again hosts the Memorial Tournament. Deemed Jack Nicklaus’ event at his signature course, the PGA Tour’s biggest names regularly attend. This year’s no different as many will make their final preparations ahead of the 2022 U.S. Open in just two weeks. The event runs opposite the LPGA's U.S. Women's Open.

Scottie Scheffler, ranked No. 1 in the Official World Golf Ranking, is one of the few notables not in attendance following his playoff loss to Sam Burns at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Jon Rahm, who enters the week second in the world rankings, is the consensus betting favorite. He was famously forced to withdraw due to a positive COVID-19 test while holding a commanding six-stroke lead following the third round last year. Patrick Cantlay will defend his second title at this event.

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Here are my top outright picks for the 2022 Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club.

Memorial Tournament Odds

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Memorial Tournament Odds Analysis

Rahm was well on his way to defending his 2020 title at Muirfield Village last year before being forced to withdraw. As such, the books are showing him plenty of respect following a disappointing T-48 finish at the PGA Championship. However, FanDuel Sportsbook is slightly favoring Rory McIlroy despite his mixed course history and collapse at the PGA Championship.

Cameron Smith, who ranks third in the OWGR and second in this field by that measure, is among the top value plays this week. He has odds as high as +2200 at DraftKings Sportsbook that have him ninth in the field. Hideki Matsuyama, who’s ranked 12th in the world, has odds as high as +2800 at DraftKings and BetMGM.

Bryson DeChambeau, who won here in 2018, is listed in the field for the third straight week while attempting to return from injury. After back-to-back mid-week withdrawals, the 24th-ranked golfer in the world is priced from +6600 (PointsBet and BetMGM) to +10000 (DraftKings).

The odds of the last 10 winners of the Memorial Tournament have ranged from +1200 to +30000, but five were +2000 or lower. Only two had odds longer than +6000.

Muirfield Village Golf Club Course Profile

Par: 72Length: 7,533 yardsGreens: Bentgrass

The Golden Bear’s crown design has hosted the PGA Tour every year since 1976. Many of the biggest names make regular appearances, so there’s plenty of course history from which to draw, but the course recently underwent a significant renovation. Nicklaus has also vowed that Muirfield Village GC will play more difficult this year, most notably with faster and firmer greens.

Winning scores of the last 10 tournaments have ranged from -9 (twice) to Cantlay’s -19 in 2019. Cantlay won in a playoff at -13 over Collin Morikawa last year, but Rahm’s score was projected to be significantly lower in a runaway victory. Rahm won by three strokes at -9 under tough conditions in 2020.

No player scored in the 60s in all four rounds last year, with only five holes playing under par. The easiest of those holes was the 547-yard, par-5 fifth; the most difficult was the 480-yard, par-4 18th with a scoring average of 4.291.

The most common par-4 range is 450 to 500 yards with two others shorter than 400 yards. Three of the four par 3s are 200 yards or longer and all four played over par. Scoring must be done on the par 5s, which all played under par last year and range from 547 to 592 yards.

The course has often been compared to Augusta National Golf Club by the top golfers, due largely to the long par 4s, difficult greens, and emphasis on play around the putting surfaces. Additionally, strong winds and rain can have major impacts. This week’s forecast calls for scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday with scattered showers carrying over into Thursday. Conditions are expected to be more favorable over the weekend with light winds.

Memorial Tournament Key Stats

Strokes gained: around-the-greenSG: approachDriving accuracy over distancePar 4 efficiency: 450-500 yardsPar 3 efficiency: 200-225 yards3-putt avoidance

The main emphasis when handicapping Muirfield Village Golf Club and the Memorial Tournament is on iron and wedge play. Putting is also a great equalizer so we’ll target those best at avoiding disaster on the difficult greens.

Only three of the 25 golfers to finish T-18 or better last year lost strokes with the flat stick over the course of the tournament. Three others of that group lost strokes around the greens, but only one of those 25 lost strokes on approach.

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Memorial Tournament Picks

Cameron Smith (+2200 via DraftKings)Max Homa (+4000 via DraftKings)Patrick Reed (+6500 via DraftKings)Anirban Lahiri (+17500 via BetMGM)

Who Will Win the Memorial Tournament?

Smith (+2200)

Smith, the third-ranked golfer in the world, has risen from No. 21 in the OWGR at the end of 2021. He has two victories this year, including The Players Championship, and is coming off a T-13 finish at the PGA Championship.

Smith's odds to win this week are inflated by his poor history at Muirfield Village. He missed the cut in four of six appearances at this event, with a top finish of T-65 in 2017. However, Smith has three straight top-10 finishes at the comparable Augusta National and has had little trouble against the PGA Tour's best fields over the last two-plus years. His success should seemingly follow him to Ohio.

The 28-year-old leads the PGA Tour this season with 1.078 SG: approach per round. He also ranks T-19 in par efficiency 450-500 yards and sixth in 3-putt avoidance.

Take the value with Smith playing the best golf of his career and headed for his best result at Muirfield Village. He's +1800 at DraftKings to win the U.S. Open in two weeks while facing an even stronger field.

Homa (+4000)

Max Homa moved up again to a career-best No. 28 in the OWGR with a T-23 finish at the Charles Schwab Challenge last week. Three weeks prior at the Wells Fargo Championship, he picked up his third victory since the start of 2021 and now looks to join the ever-growing list of multi-time winners in 2022. He has made the cut in eight straight strokeplay events.

Homa missed the cut in two appearances at Muirfield Village in 2020 (the Memorial and Workday Charity Open), but he tied for sixth last year with 1.63 SG: putting per round. His putter was a strength last week, and he also had a strong tee-to-green performance. Most notably for me this week was Homa's win at the comparable TPC Potomac for the Wells Fargo.

The American is also 18th on Tour this season in SG: approach, T-44 in par 4 efficiency: 450-500 yards, T-56 in par 3 efficiency: 200-225 yards, and T-41 in 3-putt avoidance. He's +3300 via PointsBet to win this week so we're getting a good price from DraftKings.

Reed (+6500)

Patrick Reed had slipped from No. 25 to No. 38 in the OWGR since Jan. 1 before a T-7 finish last week moved him back up a couple of spots. It was his first top-10 finish of the year to go against four missed cuts through 14 events.

The struggles had come since Reed signed an equipment deal with the maligned PXG. In his first week with a Grindworks driver at the Charles Schwab Challenge, Reed gained 0.28 strokes per round off the tee. He also gained 0.17 strokes per round on approach and was able to lean on his short-game strengths.

Despite the poor season to date, Reed is 55th on Tour in SG: around-the-green, T-10 in par 3 efficiency: 200-225 yards, and 17th in 3-putt avoidance. He sets up as a strong course fit and is coming off of back-to-back top-10 finishes in this event. The odds for the Masters champ seemingly haven't caught up to his equipment change and the immediate improvements with his driving.

Lahiri (+17500)

Anirban Lahiri didn't play this event in any of the last three years but has never missed the cut in four appearances, including a T-2 finish in 2017. He has climbed from No. 278 to No. 78 in the world rankings this year with two top-10 finishes through 12 events. He was the runner-up to Smith at The Players and tied for sixth at the Wells Fargo.

Lahiri's strength is his play around the greens, where he ranks 44th on Tour for the season. That, along with his strong finishes at a comparable venue and against a similar field this season have me sprinkling on the +17500 odds. I'd also look to the +350 odds for a top-20 finish available at DraftKings.

Where to Bet on the PGA Tour

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

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Memorial Tournament picks made on 5/30/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.

Written By:
Esten McLaren

Esten is the Senior Publishing Editor for SportsbookReview.com. He has been in the sports betting industry since the legalization of mobile sports betting in New Jersey, and with SportsbookReview prior to the launch of sports betting in Ontario. Esten's previous stops include the USA TODAY network, including GolfWeek. He previously worked in the fantasy sports industry, with FNTSY Sports Network, theScore, and USA TODAY. Esten graduated from the College of Sports Media with a diploma in Radio and Television Sports Broadcasting after acquiring a degree in Biological Sciences from the University of Guelph. He has appeared on FNTSY Sports Network, VSiN, and VSiN's Long Shots podcast, where he correctly called Will Zalatoris as the winner of the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship. Esten is a big proponent of the entertainment side of sports betting and loves to dip his toes into the novelty and alt-markets while chasing long shots with reduced wagers on golf outrights and futures markets. He's also been known to sprinkle some lunch money on touchdown-scorer parlays with two notable hits still funding his bankroll. Esten looks at sports betting much like golf and advises beginner bettors to compete against themselves rather than being concerned with what others may or may not be doing based on social media claims.