🏎️ Japanese Grand Prix Predictions, Odds 2026: Best Bets for Sunday's Race
F1's third race of the season takes place at Suzuka Circuit in Mie Prefecture, Japan, on Sunday (1 a.m. ET, ESPN), with Mercedes' George Russell the minus-money betting favorite (-150) after the second practice session.
I'm backing Russell in my Japanese Grand Prix predictions as he is the best driver on a team with a car that is outperforming the rest. A somewhat surprising result in the second practice session saw McLaren's Oscar Piastri finish with the fastest time. Kim Antonelli, who has the second-shortest odds to win Sunday's race, and Russell finished with the second and third-fastest times, respectively.
📊 Japanese Grand Prix odds 2026
Latest Japanese Grand Prix odds to win Sunday's race via BetMGM.
| Driver | Odds | Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| George Russell | -150 | 60% | $6.67 |
| Kimi Antonelli | +250 | 26.57% | $25 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +1200 | 7.69% | $120 |
| Charles Leclerc | +1200 | 7.69% | $120 |
| Lando Norris | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| Oscar Piastri | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| Max Verstappen | +3300 | 2.94% | $330 |
| Oliver Bearman | +20000 | 0.5% | $2,000 |
| Isack Hadjar | +40000 | 0.25% | $4,000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Liam Lawson | +100000 | 0.10% | $10,000 |
| Arvid Lindblad | +100000 | 0.10% | $10,000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +100000 | 0.10% | $10,000 |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | +100000 | 0.10% | $10,000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +150000 | 0.07% | $15,000 |
| Carlos Sainz | +200000 | 0.05% | $20,000 |
| Alex Albon | +200000 | 0.05% | $20,000 |
| Franco Colapinto | +300000 | 0.03% | $30,000 |
| Fernando Alonso | +400000 | 0.02% | $40,000 |
| Lance Stroll | +400000 | 0.02% | $40,000 |
| Sergio Perez | +400000 | 0.02% | $40,000 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +400000 | 0.02% | $40,000 |
💰 Japanese Grand Prix predictions, best bets
All bets made before the third practice session
| 💰 Bet | ⚖️ Units | 🧠 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| To win race: George Russell, Mercedes (-150) | 1u -> 0.67u | Russell has finished 1st and 2nd so far |
| Top 3 finish: Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari (+225) | 0.5u -> 1.125u | Hamilton secured his first podium with Ferrari at Chinese Grand Prix |
| Long shot pick: Lando Norris (+1400) | 0.1u -> 1.4u | Norris is the best of the rest |
Total wagered: 1.6 units | Max profit: 3.2 units
🏆 Pick to win Japanese Grand Prix: George Russell
There's not much to like about Russell's -150 odds to win. However, his odds accurately reflect his and Mercedes' dominance through two races. I'm so gung-ho on Russell's chances to win that I also backed him in my Japanese Grand Prix odds.
Had it not been for a gearbox malfunction in qualifying at the Chinese Grand Prix, we'd likely be speaking about Russell having started the season with consecutive wins.
I'm not taking anything away from Kimi Antonelli's maiden victory in China. In fact, his +250 odds represent the best value on the board. Despite that tidbit, Russell is the more experienced and skilled driver. And if his W17 cooperates, I see no reason his dominance won't continue.
🥉 Top 3 finish at Japanese Grand Prix: Lewis Hamilton
I backed Charles Leclerc to take third place in China, but it was his teammate Lewis Hamilton who secured his first podium finish since joining Ferrari at the start of last season.
You could see how much it meant to Hamilton, who had trouble coming to grips with Ferrari's car in his opening season with Scuderia. That's no longer the case, considering how well the first two races went for him and Leclerc.
Ferrari's new car is the second-best on the circuit, the fastest out of the starting gate and is the best on corners.
It helps that Hamilton has won the event five times, more than any current driver. I'm expecting him to build on the momentum from China and finish third.
🎯 Best long shot Japanese Grand Prix pick: Lando Norris
Things have not started well for the defending champion, who suffered his first DNS in China due to an electrical issue with the power unit. While that's somewhat foreboding, he finished fifth Down Under and believes McLaren will return to the top of the pile before long.
Norris finished second in Japan last year under altogether different circumstances, with McLaren the lead dog throughout the first half of the season. That said, he fared well in P1 and P2, finishing with the third-fastest and fourth-fastest time, respectively.
And none of his long-shot competitors, including teammate Oscar Piastri and Max Verstappen, impressed in the first two races.
Verstappen has been outspoken about his displeasure with the new F1, which he said more closely resembles Mario Kart than last season's racing. While I don't see Norris winning, he is the best of the rest at this early juncture.
💡 How I'm betting Japanese Grand Prix
As far as I'm concerned, Russell and Antonelli will battle for first place. I'm more confident in Russell's experience, which I believe will propel him to first.
For third place and a podium finish, it should come down to one of the Ferrari drivers. I'm giving Hamilton the slight advantage after his performance at the Chinese Grand Prix. The former champion will be bursting with confidence, which should bode well for the season's third race.
As you can tell by my 0.1-unit investment, I am not confident in Norris winning as my long-shot play. Until McLaren and Red Bull bridge the performance gap, they will struggle to compete with Ferrari and Mercedes.
🏆 Past Japanese Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT |
| 2024 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT |
| 2022 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT |
| 2021 | Not held due to the COVID-19 pandemic | |
| 2020 | Not held due to the COVID-19 pandemic | |
| 2019 | Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes |
| 2018 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2017 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2016 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes |
| 2015 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
🗓️ 2026 Japanese Grand Prix schedule
Practice 1: Thursday, March 26 @ 10:30 p.m. ETPractice 2: Friday, March 27 @ 2 a.m. ET- Practice 3: Friday, March 27 @ 10:30 p.m. ET
- Qualifying: Saturday, March 28 @ 2 a.m. ET
- Race: Sunday, March 29 @ 1 a.m. ET
📺 How to watch 2026 Japanese Grand Prix
- Date: Sunday, March 29
- Time: 1 a.m. ET
- Location: Suzuka Circuit (Mie Prefecture, Japan)
- How to watch: ESPN
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