🏎️ Japanese Grand Prix Odds & Betting Favorites 2026: Mercedes Mowing Down Competition
Mercedes recorded consecutive one-two finishes for the first time in six years thanks to their dominant performance in the first two races of the 2026 F1 season.
And, barring any unforeseen mechanical issues or mistakes, I expect the same to occur at the Japanese Grand Prix, where George Russell is the minus-money betting favorite. I'm backing Russell in my Japanese Grand Prix odds and favorites, while providing the updated betting lines for every driver in the field.
Kimi Antonelli won his maiden race at the Chinese Grand Prix, while Ferrari took third and fourth after accomplishing the same feat in the season opener in Melbourne. Sunday's race from the Suzuka Circuit in Mie Prefecture, Japan, starts at 1 a.m. ET (ESPN).
📊 Japanese Grand Prix odds & betting favorites 2026
Latest Japanese Grand Prix odds to win Sunday's race via BetMGM.
| Driver | Odds | Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| George Russell | -154 | 60.61% | $6.50 |
| Kimi Antonelli | +275 | 26.67% | $27.50 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +800 | 11.11% | $80 |
| Charles Leclerc | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| Max Verstappen | +2000 | 4.76% | $200 |
| Oscar Piastri | +3300 | 2.94% | $330 |
| Lando Norris | +3300 | 2.94% | $330 |
| Isack Hadjar | +20000 | 0.5% | $2,000 |
| Oliver Bearman | +20000 | 0.5% | $2,000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +30000 | 0.33% | $3,000 |
| Arvid Lindblad | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Liam Lawson | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Carlos Sainz | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Alex Albon | +75000 | 0.13% | $7,500 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +100000 | 0.10% | $10,000 |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | +100000 | 0.10% | $10,000 |
| Franco Colapinto | +100000 | 0.10% | $10,000 |
| Fernando Alonso | +200000 | 0.05% | $20,000 |
🏁 Early pick to win Japanese Grand Prix
George Russell (-154) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Russell finished second in China after winning the first race of the season in Australia.
His second-place finish at the Chinese Grand Prix will be seen as a massive disappointment and opportunity missed for the Brit, who is the clear -192 favorite to win this year's championship.
Russell's W17 suffered a gearbox glitch in qualifying, which teammate Antonelli took full advantage of, winning his first GP.
Who poses the biggest threat to Russell at Chinese Grand Prix?
While Antonelli poses the biggest threat in Japan, I can't see the W17 malfunctioning in successive races for the Russell.
If his car performs to its ability and remains unscathed, Russell should win his second race of the season. He finished last year's Chinese Grand Prix in third place and has a far superior car to drive this time around.
Until competing teams can close the discernible gap in their cars' performance, Mercedes will dominate. Despite the short odds at the best sports betting sites, which I dislike about as much as Russell did his gearbox malfunction, it's still the best bet.
💰 Early picks & best bets at Suzuka Circuit
Here's a look at the best alternatives on the board looking ahead to Sunday's race:
Kimi Antonelli (+275)
By winning the Chinese Grand Prix, the 19-year-old became the second-youngest F1 driver to win a race. Max Verstappen is the youngest.
That will inject untold confidence into the Italian's veins, and he will also be boosted by driving the best car on the circuit. While his nerves showed on a loose corner in the final stages of the Chinese Grand Prix, he held onto victory.
Antonelli's +275 odds represent the best value on the board, and he will punish any mistake Russell commits.
Charles Leclerc (+1000)
If anyone can upset the Mercedes drivers, who finished one-two in the first two races, it's Ferrari. As the more consistent driver since Lewis Hamilton's arrival at Ferrari, I'm more partial to Charles Leclerc.
He finished on the podium Down Under and tussled with Hamilton throughout the Chinese Grand Prix, eventually having to settle for fourth after an epic wheel-to-wheel showdown.
In addition, Ferrari has the best car out of the starting gate by a country mile.
Lewis Hamilton (+800)
Hamilton is finally enjoying himself in Ferrari red. He loves the new car, how it starts, and the nature of the new F1, which prioritizes wheel-to-wheel driving replete with takeovers.
That style is in Hamilton's wheelhouse, and it showed at the Chinese Grand Prix, where he finished on the podium for the first time since joining Ferrari at the start of last season.
With the second-best car on the grid, Hamilton can let his driving do the talking. And that's an ominous thought for the rest of the field.
🏆 Past Japanese Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT |
| 2024 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT |
| 2022 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT |
| 2021 | Not held due to the COVID-19 pandemic | |
| 2020 | Not held due to the COVID-19 pandemic | |
| 2019 | Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes |
| 2018 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2017 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2016 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes |
| 2015 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
🗓️ 2026 Japanese Grand Prix schedule
- Practice 1: Thursday, March 26 @ 10:30 p.m. ET
- Practice 2: Friday, March 27 @ 2 a.m. ET
- Practice 3: Friday, March 27 @ 10:30 p.m. ET
- Qualifying: Saturday, March 28 @ 2 a.m. ET
- Race: Sunday, March 29 @ 1 a.m. ET
📺 How to watch 2026 Japanese Grand Prix
- Date: Sunday, March 29
- Time: 1 a.m. ET
- Location: Suzuka Circuit (Mie Prefecture, Japan)
- How to watch: ESPN
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
Related Articles
