Italian Grand Prix Prediction, Odds 2025 Today: F1 Expert Picks & Long Shot for Monza Circuit
Max Verstappen, one of the headlining acts in my Italian Grand Prix odds and prediction, enjoyed a superb qualifying and will start the grid in first place.
Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, who've finished one-two in the last five races, will start in second and third at today's race from Monza Circuit (9 a.m. ET, ESPN).
Norris is the slight betting favorite (+160) ahead of Verstappen (+200) and Piastri (+285).
๐ฅItalian Grand Prix odds & favorites 2025
Italian Grand Prix odds via BetMGM and subject to change
| Driver | BetMGM | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lando Norris | +160 | 38.46% | $16 |
| Max Verstappen | +200 | 33.33% | $20 |
| Oscar Piastri | +285 | 25.97% | $28.50 |
| Charles Leclerc | +1800 | 5.26% | $180 |
| George Russell | +4000 | 2.44% | $400 |
| Kimi Antonelli | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
| Fernando Alonso | +15000 | 0.66% | $1,500 |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | +15000 | 0.66% | $1,500 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +30000 | 0.33% | $3,000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Alex Albon | +75000 | 0.13% | $7,500 |
| Carlos Sainz | +75000 | 0.13% | $7,500 |
| Oliver Bearman | +75000 | 0.13% | $7,500 |
| Isack Hadjar | +100000 | 0.10% | $10,000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +200000 | 0.07% | $20,000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +200000 | 0.07% | $20,000 |
| Franco Colapinto | +300000 | 0.03% | $30,000 |
| Liam Lawson | +300000 | 0.03% | $30,000 |
| Lance Stroll | +300000 | 0.03% | $30,000 |
Italian Grand Prix odds movement
As is typical, there was significant movement after qualifying on Saturday.
- Norris' odds lengthened from +150 to +160
- Verstappen has shortened from +800 to +200
- Piastri has lengthened from +110 to +285
- Leclerc's odds are back up to +1800 after falling significantly to +5000
- Hamilton's odds went from +4000 to +10000
- Ditto for Russell, who sunk from +1400 to +4000
๐ฐ Italian Grand Prix predictions, expert picks & best bets to win
Here are my best Italian Grand Prix predictions for Sunday's race at Monza Circuit. It's the 16th race of the 24 scheduled for the 2025 season.
All picks were made before qualifying.
๐ Pick to win Italian Grand Prix: Lando Norris โญโญโญ
๐ Best odds: +187 via bet365 ($10 to win $18.70)
๐ข Implied probability: 34.84%
I'm going back to the well with Norris for Sunday's Italian Grand Prix. He was, for most of the weekend at the Dutch Grand Prix, the fastest driver. However, he lost to Piastri in qualifying by 0.012 seconds, leaving him in the role of chaser on Sunday. And that role, particularly at Circuit Zandvoort, is not conducive to winning.
He fought gallantly to almost get within one second of Piastri - the maximum separation required to activate DRS - just to have his MCL39 go up in smoke. While he probably wouldn't have won, it was a still disappointing turn of events for the Brit.
The pressure, now that he's 34 points behind Piastri, isn't nearly as intense, which should benefit Norris. And the last time Norris didn't finish a race - at the Canadian Grand Prix - he followed it up by winning the British Grand Prix. Finally, Monza Circuit is the fastest track, with an average speed of 262.897 km/h.
He'll have a chance to prove his slightly superior pace, even if he doesn't secure pole position, as the last five Italian Grand Prix winners failed to finish first in qualifying.
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๐ Best value bet to win Italian Grand Prix: Max Verstappen โญโญ
๐ Best odds: +800 via DraftKings ($10 to win $80)
๐ข Implied probability: 11.11%
Max Verstappen hung around at the Dutch Grand Prix, looking to take advantage of the safety cars. It provided the opportunity to stick with the McLaren drivers, if only temporarily. While Verstappen is the best puritan driver on the grid, he's struggling with an inferior car.
This pick is only a two-star play due to the breakneck average pace at the Italian Grand Prix.
With McLaren's car being two heads and two shoulders above the competition, Verstappen will need some luck and potentially inclement weather to have a chance of winning.
Anything is possible with the Dutchman, and for that reason, along with being one of two drivers not named Norris or Piastri who have won this season, he's the best-value pick.
Of the best sports betting sites, DraftKings' +800 odds offer the best value.
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๐ฏ Best long shot to win Italian Grand Prix: Charles Leclerc โญโญ
๐ Best odds: +1300 via FanDuel ($10 to win $130)
๐ข Implied probability: 7.14%
Like Norris, Charles Leclerc didn't finish the Dutch Grand Prix. Neither driver had a say in the matter, though, which didn't make the pill any easier to swallow. The Monegasque was showing signs of creeping up the grid but was taken out by an overzealous Kimi Antonelli as the rookie attempted to pass.
Excluding the McLaren monopoly, Leclerc has been the most consistent driver on the grid in the last eight races. The same can be said for his performance level at the Italian Grand Prix, where he hasn't finished worse than fourth in the previous four years.
He has also won the event twice, including last season, when he finished ahead of the McLaren drivers, both of whom were on the podium.
Unfortunately, his car doesn't have the pace to keep up on this track. Unless, of course, the McLaren drivers suffer from the same fate that befell him in Holland. If you're keen on Leclerc repeating his 2024 performance, head to FanDuel to lock in the pick as it offers the best value.
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๐ Past Italian Grand Prix winners
Here is a look at the last 10 Italian Grand Prix winners.
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | ๐ฒ๐จ Charles Leclerc | Ferrari |
| 2023 | ๐ณ๐ฑ Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing |
| 2022 | ๐ณ๐ฑ Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing |
| 2021 | ๐ฆ๐บ Daniel Ricciardo | McLaren-Mercedes |
| 2020 | ๐ซ๐ท Pierre Gasly | AlphaTauri-Honda |
| 2019 | ๐ฒ๐จ Charles Leclerc | Ferrari |
| 2018 | ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2017 | ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2016 | ๐ฉ๐ช Nico Rosberg | Mercedes |
| 2015 | ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
๐ Italian Grand Prix trends & history
๐๏ธ Autodromo Nazionale Monza (Monza Circuit) is the fastest track on the circuit, with average speeds reaching 262.897 km/h
๐๏ธ Monza became the official home of the Italian Grand Prix in 1950
๐๏ธ Autodromo Nazionale Monza opened in 1922
๐๏ธ Monza Circuit has hosted the most Grand Prix races (74)
๐๏ธ Monza Circuit is nicknamed the Temple of Speed
๐๏ธ It's the home of Ferrari
๐๏ธ Almost every Italian Grand Prix has been held at Monza, with Imola in 1980 the only exception
๐๏ธ Lewis Hamilton and Michael Schumacher have the most Italian Grand Prix wins (5)
๐๏ธ Four drivers on the current grid have won the Italian Grand Prix: Fernando Alonso, Pierre Gasly, Leclerc, and Verstappen
๐๏ธ Hamilton has the most poles (7)
๐บ How to watch the 2025 Italian Grand Prix
๐
Race date: Sunday, Sept. 7
๐ Start time: 9 a.m. ET
๐ Track: Autodromo Nazionale Monza (Monza, Italy)
๐บ TV: ESPN
๐ป Streaming: ESPN+
โ๏ธ Weather: 81 degrees, 2-mph to 4-mph winds, 20% chance of precipitation
๐๏ธ Italian Grand Prix schedule
- Practice 1: Friday, Sept. 5; 7:30 a.m. ET
- Practice 2: Friday, Sept. 5; 11 a.m. ET
- Practice 3: Saturday, Sept. 5; 6:30 a.m. ET
- Qualifying: Saturday, Sept. 5; 10 a.m. ET
- Race: Sunday, Sept. 7; 9 a.m. ET
โ Italian Grand Prix FAQs
Who is favored to win the Italian Grand Prix?
Oscar Piastri is the Italian Grand Prix odds favorite, with the McLaren driver trading at +125 at BetMGM.
What are the odds for the Italian Grand Prix?
Oscar Piastri (+125), Lando Norris (+150), and Max Verstappen (+700) are getting the shortest odds to win the Italian Grand Prix at BetMGM.
What time is the 2025 Italian Grand Prix?
The Italian Grand Prix starts at 9 a.m. ET on Sunday, Sept. 7.
How to watch the 2025 Italian Grand Prix
You can watch the Italian Grand Prix on ESPN and ESPN+.
Who has won the most Italian Grand Prix races?
Lewis Hamilton and Michael Schumacher have the most Italian Grand Prix wins (5)
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