Groundhog Day Odds & Prediction 2024: Will Punxsutawney Phil See His Shadow?
We're analyzing the best 2024 Groundhog Day odds for our top prediction and prop bets from our best betting odds with Punxsutawney Phil not forecasted to see his shadow on Feb. 2.
One of America's greatest traditions continues Friday. That's when Punxsutawney Phil — the world's most famous groundhog — tries to predict the weather. The annual spectacle at Gobbler's Knob, which started in 1886 and has been scheduled every year since. And the beauty of it is that you can bet on it, although friends, it looks like it's good news for those who don't love winter.
The latest Groundhog Day 2024 odds from our best sports betting sites would lead us to believe we're not expecting him to see his shadow.
If Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow, there will be six more weeks of winter, at least according to tradition. No shadow and an early spring is predicted. His accuracy has been criticized over the years, but you can only expect so much from a drowsy marmot in front of such a raucous crowd.
Here's a look at the latest 2024 Groundhog Day odds and predictions for this year's event from our best sports betting apps.
2024 Groundhog Day odds, predictions
On Friday, a group of quaint men in top hats and tuxedos will pluck Punxsutawney Phil from his cozy burrow and try to interpret his fleeting glance as a sign of what's to come over the next six weeks.
Naturally, you can bet on it. Here are the latest odds on whether Phil will see his shadow in 2024, along with the implied probability using our odds converter:
Will Punxsutawney Phil See His Shadow?
| Result | Betting odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | +200 | 33.33% |
| No | -300 | 75.00% |
To assess potential value, let's first examine past results.
Punxsutawney Phil has emerged from his hidey-hole with a prediction 127 times since the tradition began in 1886, according to the York Daily Record, with some of his calls lost to time. One year he refused to make an appearance, which we can only hope doesn't repeat in 2024.
Of those 127 times, the beloved groundhog saw his shadow on 107 occasions - or at least that's what he tells the Groundhog Club president in Groundhogese. That's a whopping 84.3% of the time that Phil has predicted a lengthy winter, including three straight years and 18 of the last 24 years dating back to 2000.
So why in the world is "Yes" dealing at +200 odds then? Based purely on recent results, we can expect Phil to see his shadow roughly 75% of the time at worst. That would imply -300 odds, which is actually what we're getting on "No" to hit.
Maybe oddsmakers got confused about the entire ordeal - don't we all? - or maybe they're skeptical of the Groundhog Club letting this shadow streak continue for much longer. After all, we haven't seen Phil predict four consecutive long winters since he did so seven straight times from 2000-06.
That said, I can't imagine anyone ever laying -300 odds on a groundhog's prediction, nor should you. The only bet here is "Yes" at +200, and it's not a bad wager at that.
Will there be 6 more weeks of winter regardless of Phil's prediction?
| Result | Betting odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | -200 | 66.67% |
| No | +150 | 40.00% |
With this prop bet, oddsmakers are skipping the groundhog tomfoolery altogether and asking bettors to predict the weather over the next six weeks.
While Phil is arguably the least qualified meteorologist in the world, I'm only a few steps removed from that, so take that for what you will. But have you seen the weather lately around North America? This has been a wild time for winter storms from coast to coast, and that doesn't seem to be letting up anytime soon.
It feels a little ambitious to presume that wintry weather is already over by early February, independent of what the prognosticating groundhog says. It's tough to lay -200 odds on an amateur weather prediction, but all signs point to a long winter - whether Punxsutawney Phil accepts it or not.
Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook
Here are our best sports betting apps:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
Related Articles
