2026 Grammys Predictions at Kalshi: Bad Bunny, KPop Demon Hunters Favored at Prediction Markets

My best 2026 Grammys predictions for Sunday's 8 p.m. ET (CBS/Paramount+) event hosted by Trevor Noah at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, focus on major categories like Album of the Year, Record of the Year, and Song of the Year. I also look at the most valuable pick of the night, based on the latest Grammys odds.

Can anyone knock off DeBI TiRAR MaS FOToS by Bad Bunny for Album of the Year? Will Kendrick Lamar take home awards for any major categories? And will Netflix's most-streamed movie snag a Song of the Year win? I answer all these questions and more as I make my Grammys predictions for Sunday night.

🏆 Best Grammys predictions 2026

Here are my best predictions for who'll take home the hardware for the biggest awards at the 2026 Grammy Awards; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale:

• Album of the Year prediction: DeBI TiRAR MaS FOToS (54%) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Record of the Year prediction: Abracadabra (16%) ⭐⭐⭐
• Song of the Year prediction: Golden (69%) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Best New Artist prediction: Leon Thomas (17%) ⭐⭐
• Best Pop Solo prediction: The Subway (9%) ⭐⭐⭐
• My best value pick: "tv off" to win Best Rap Song (36%) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Predictions made based on the odds at Kalshi, a prediction trading market. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.

🎧 Album of the Year prediction: DeBI TiRAR MaS FOToS - Bad Bunny

Prediction: Just like Kendrick Lamar last year, Bad Bunny is riding a wave of momentum into the Grammys thanks in large part to his headlining the Super Bowl halftime show. While GNX was initially one of the heavy Grammys favorites in this category, Lamar's latest album now has the third-best chance of winning this award.

While I'm going to try to beat a lot of favorites with my predictions, there's no reason to go against Bad Bunny here. With a 54% chance of winning, you'll earn 46 cents for every contract you purchase, giving you $7 of profit if you buy $10 worth of shares. That's tremendous value for an album that has been favored since early December. With nearly $1 million traded on this market, Lady Gaga is making a serious late push, but to me, that's the public trading based on the storyline that Lady Gaga hasn't won Album of the Year, rather than facts.

🎛️ Record of the Year prediction: Abracadabra - Lady Gaga

Prediction: "luther" has a 51% chance of winning this award, and while no other Grammys nominee has a greater than 20% chance of winning, "luther" is hardly a lock. In fact, the song from Kendrick Lamar and SZA has seen its chances drop by more than 3% in the last week, as the trading volume crossed over $500,000.

While "APT." has been cruising as the second-favorite, "Abracadabra" has caught up to force a tie for the second position. Considering the momentum that Lady Gaga currently has in other categories, I wouldn't be surprised to see her odds increase to 20% or more before Sunday. And while she's a long shot to win other categories, I think she's being very undervalued here, especially with Kendrick Lamar losing momentum in almost every category. If Lady Gaga wins, every 16-cent "Abracadabra" contract you purchase will profit 84 cents. That's some serious value in a category without a clear favorite.

🎶 Song of the Year prediction: Golden - KPop Demon Hunters

Prediction: You're not beating the favorite in this category, so don't even try. Since Jan. 12, "Golden" has had a 67% chance or greater of winning this award. To put that in perspective, if you were to convert this percentage to a betting line, "Golden" would be a -200 favorite. That said, many sportsbooks have this price set as high as -700, meaning you're getting a steal by trading at 67 cents at Kalshi.

The only thing working against "Golden" is that it wasn't nominated for Record of the Year, but the same song has only won Record of the Year and Song of the Year at six of the last 12 Grammys. Nearly $2.5 million have ben traded on this market, and it seems that a lot of that money has been focused on long shots based on what the percentages imply compared to what you can find at sportsbooks. No matter when you get in on "Golden," you're going to get great value.

🆕 Best New Artist prediction: Leon Thomas

Prediction: Olivia Dean's chances continue to remain steady, while Leon Thomas' odds continue to drop. There was a time when Thomas had a greater than 50% chance of winning this award, but since late November, Dean has taken over as the favorite, and she's shown no signs of letting up.

Still, I'm not counting out Thomas. His album Mutt is up for Album of the Year, a category that Dean was left out of. While he has no chance of winning that award, seeing him nominated there may be enough to sway some voters to back him here. Nearly $1.5 million have been traded on this market, and Thomas' odds continue to drop. Right now, an 18-cent contract would pay 82 cents, but I'd probably wait to buy shares on Sunday, as I believe his chances of winning will continue to drop based on recent support.

⭐ Best Pop Solo prediction: The Subway - Chappell Roan

Prediction: While "Manchild" is rightfully favored to win this award, there's very little value in backing it to win. However, "The Subway," which has the second-shortest odds to win this award at most sportsbooks, is being given just a 9% chance to win this award. That's the equivalent of being +1000 at a sportsbook, though most sportsbooks have the odds at +500 or better.

While Sabrina Carpenter won two Grammys last year, she lost Best New Artist to Roan. This category has just over $60,000 traded at Kalshi, and I think the lower volume is skewing the percentages a bit. Kalshi is one of the only places that doesn't have "The Subway" with the second-best chance to win this award. Buy some shares before the public realizes this.

💰 Best Grammys value pick

tv off by Kendrick Lamar to win Best Rap Song (36%)

"The Birds Don't Sing" by Clipse, Pusha T & Malice featuring John Legend and Voices of Fire is favored to win this category with a 51% of taking home the trophy. But as I've highlighted throughout, I think that Kendrick Lamar is in danger of losing many of the bigger awards on Sunday. 

I wouldn't be surprised at all if voters who skipped over Lamar in many other categories ultimately elect to reward him with Best Rap Song. After all, he has won this category two of the last three years, and the only year he didn't during that span, he wasn't nominated. A 36% chance means that Lamar's odds would be around +177 at a standard sportsbook. That means he's an underdog, but barely, especially in a category he's dominated with a favorite sitting at just 51%.

What is Kalshi and how does it work for the 2026 Grammy Awards?

Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated prediction market exchange overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, where users trade on real-world outcomes using simple contracts. In the context of the 2026 Grammy Awards, that could mean markets tied to questions like whether a specific artist will win Album of the Year or if a certain song takes home Record of the Year.

Each contract pays out $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not. If you think an artist will win and buy a “Yes” contract at 40 cents, that implies a 40 percent chance. If the artist wins, the contract settles at $1, netting 60 cents per share. If not, it settles at $0. Prices fluctuate as users buy and sell, so the market reflects the collective expectations of the crowd.

How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?

Unlike sportsbooks, Kalshi users trade directly with each other in an open market rather than betting against a house. Prices are expressed in cents as implied probabilities, and positions can be sold early to lock in gains or limit losses. For entertainment events like the Grammys, the focus is on forecasting outcomes, not beating a fixed line, offering more flexibility and transparency than traditional betting.

Why should I wager on the Grammy Awards at Kalshi?

Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:

• Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
• Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
• Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
• Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.

❓ Grammy Awards FAQs

When will the 2026 Grammy Awards take place?

The 2026 Grammy Awards will take place on Sunday, Feb. 1, 2026 at 8 p.m. ET.

Where are the Grammy Awards held?

The Grammy Awards are held at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.

Who will host the Grammy Awards?

Trevor Noah is hosting the Grammy Awards.

How can I watch the Grammy Awards?

You can watch the Grammy Awards on CBS or stream live on Paramount+.