2026 Grammys Odds: Kalshi Prediction Markets for Best Song, Record, Album & More
The 2026 Grammy Awards will be held on Sunday, Feb. 1 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, and I'm diving into the best Grammys odds from prediction market Kalshi for all of the major categories. After sweeping Song of the Year and Record of the Year last year, Kendrick Lamar leads all artists with nine nominations, and he's favored in many key categories. Will he have another big night, or can artists like Lady Gaga, Bad Bunny, or even KPop Demon Hunters possibly dethrone him?
See all 2026 Grammys nominees here.
ποΈ Grammys odds & favorites
Here are the favorites at Kalshi and my best predictions for all the biggest Grammys categories.
| Category | Favorite (odds) | My best pick (odds) |
|---|---|---|
| Album of the Year | DeBI TiRAR MaS FOToS - Bad Bunny (54%) | DeBI TiRAR MaS FOToS - Bad Bunny (54 cents) |
| Record of the Year | luther - Kendrick Lamar with SZA (48%) | Abracadabra - Lady Gaga (18 cents) |
| Song of the Year | Golden - KPop Demon Hunters (69%) | Golden - KPop Demon Hunters (69 cents) |
| Best New Artist | Olivia Dean (72%) | Leon Thomas (17 cents) |
| Best Pop Solo | Manchild - Sabrina Carpenter (70%) | The Subway - Chappell Roan (9 cents) |
| Best Rap Album | GNX - Kendrick Lamar (71%) | GNX - Kendrick Lamar (71 cents) |
| Best Rock Album | Deftones - private music (60%) | Turnstile - NEVER ENOUGH (18 cents) |
| Best Pop Duo/Group | Golden - KPop Demon Hunters (55%) | Golden - KPop Demon Hunters (55 cents) |
π§ Album of the Year odds & favorites
Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.
Kendrick Lamar cleaned up at last year's Grammy Awards, taking home Record of the Year, Song of the Year, Best Rap Song, Best Rap Performance, and Best Music Video. When the Grammy nominations were initially announced, he was favored to win this category with implied odds of +100. However, since then, DeBI TiRAR MaS FOToS by Bad Bunny, my initial pick when its odds were +300, has taken over as the Grammys favorite.
🎤 Super Bowl halftime show odds
FanDuel Canada already has early Super Bowl halftime show odds for Bad Bunny's performance during Super Bowl 60.
That said, there are plenty of other legitimate contenders in this category. Sabrina Carpenter won two Grammys last year, and she finds herself with the fourth-shortest odds in this category for Man's Best Friend. Then there is Lady Gaga, who receives her fourth nomination in this category for MAYHEM. She's won 14 Grammys, but she's yet to take home Album of the Year. She's seen a late surge at Kalshi, which gives her a 25% chance of winning this award on Grammy night. However, this 9% increase doesn't seem based on any hard evidence, just feelings.
However, just like Kendrick Lamar last year, Bad Bunny is seeing a huge surge in momentum, as he is set to headline the Super Bowl LX halftime show on Sunday, Feb. 8. That's hard evidence. While the Grammys could elect to give Lady Gaga an overdue win, this is Bad Bunny's award to lose.
My pick: DeBI TiRAR MaS FOToS - Bad Bunny
🐰 Beware of the bunny
I'm also siding with Bad Bunny in my 2026 Grammys predictions, and he's the focus of our Bad Bunny prop bet guide ahead of the Super Bowl.
ποΈ Record of the Year odds & favorites
Since the Grammys were announced, it has felt like "luther" was being overvalued in this category. Now, with the Grammys right around the corner, it seems that traders agree. On Jan. 27, "luther" was a 55% favorite to win. Those chances dropped to just 48% by the afternoon of Jan. 30.
"APT." and "Abracadabra" have battled back and forth in the final week before the Grammys, as neither has been able to emerge as the second-favorite heading into the awards show. But while the public is backing Lady Gaga for Record of the Year, I think they're underestimating her chances in this category.
Lady Gaga was first nominated in this category for "Poker Face" in 2010, and she didn't earn her second nomination until 2019, when she was nominated for "Shallow" with Bradley Cooper. She was nominated again in 2022 for "I Get a Kick Out of You", this time alongside Tony Bennett. Voters have been willing to nominate her for a variety of sounds, and now that she's nominated again for the sound that made her who she is, I expect voters to reward her for it.
My pick: Abracadabra - Lady Gaga
πΆ Song of the Year odds & favorites
If you were lucky enough to invest in "Golden" when the Grammy nominations first came out, then you got in when odds were best for what is now one of the biggest favorites of the evening.
Winning both Record of the Year and Song of the Year is a coin flip, as six of the last 12 winners of Record of the Year have also won Song of the Year. This means that, despite thinking "Abracadabra" provides the most value in the Record of the Year category, Lady Gaga is far from a lock to win both awards, especially since "Golden" isn't nominated for Record of the Year.
"luther" was originally favored in this category, but as has been the case with Kendrick Lamar in most categories, the odds have tumbled in recent weeks. Therefore, "Golden", from the most popular Netflix film of all time, KPop Demon Hunters, is going to win this award. Don't be scared by the high price or the fact that a K-pop song has never won this award.
My pick: Golden - KPop Demon Hunters
π Best New Artist odds & favorites
Considering Leon Thomas is the only artist nominated for Best New Artist and Album of the Year, I'm genuinely shocked Olivia Dean is so heavily favored. Thomas was originally the favorite in this category, but his odds have completely tanked, while Dean has held steady throughout all of December and January. With the odds where they currently are, there's no value in backing Dean in what could end up being one of the biggest "surprises" of the night. If you insist on taking a dark horse rather than one of the two favorites, focus on Addison Rae (2 cents). However, as I watch the odds get worse for Thomas, I just see increased value in buying contracts for him, even if you sell them before the award is actually handed out.
My pick: Leon Thomas
β Best Pop Solo odds & favorites
With "Disease", "Messy", and "Daisies" left without nominations in the Record of the Year or Song of the Year categories, it's safe to assume this is a two-horse race. Right now, the public is backing "Manchild" by Sabrina Carpenter, perhaps because she won this award for "Espresso" last year. That said, Chappell Roan is being undervalued in this category. In fact, "The Subway" is now inexplicably trading at 9 cents to win this award. That's behind both "Messy" and "Daisies." Without much value in backing "Manchild," I'll take "The Subway" to win. While "The Subway" has been the fourth-favorite at Kalshi since nominations were announced, I expect the song to be the second-favorite after traders on Sunday, as both "Disease" and "Messy" have seen their chances dropping in recent days.
My pick: The Subway - Chappell Roan
π€ Best Rap Album odds & favorites
GNX opened as the biggest favorite of the night. However, since then, the gap has closed considerably between it and the rest of the field. Surprisingly, it's not Tyler the Creator, who has won this award twice (2020 & 2022), closing the gap, but rather Clipse, Pusha T and Malice. Despite the late push for Let God Sort Em Out, I'm still backing GNX for one main reason. With Lamar losing steam in many other categories, this may be one of the few places voters can award him.
My pick: GNX - Kendrick Lamar
π₯ Best Rock Album odds & favorites
This is the first time that four of the nominees have been nominated in this category, with only Linkin Park earning a previous nod (2002). For a category that feels so wide open, it seems odd that private music by Deftones is being given better than a 60% chance of winning, especially when the band's only previous Grammy was for Best Metal Performance. Linkin Park joins Deftones as the only band in this category with a previous Grammy win, but their last came in 2006 when Chester Bennington was the lead singer. This is one of the more wide-open categories of the night, so I'm going to back NEVER ENOUGH by Turnstile, a band nominated for five Grammys this year.
My pick: Turnstile - Never Enough
π₯ Best Pop Duo/Group odds & favorites
There's almost no value in taking "Golden" to win Song of the Year. However, while the song is still favored in this category, the implied probability of it winning suggests odds of just -122. While "APT." by Rose and Bruno Mars is trading at 34 cents at the time of writing, I don't think this category is going to be any closer than Song of the Year. After all, "APT." is currently being given the worst chance of winning Song of the Year of any of the nominees in that category. "Golden" has all the momentum right now, especially after it picked up an Oscar nomination last week. I'd forego making trades on Song of the Year and try to get more value in a category that seems like much more of a lock than prices suggest.
My pick: Golden - KPop Demon Hunters
What is Kalshi and how does it work for the 2026 Grammy Awards?
Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated prediction market exchange overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, where users trade on real-world outcomes using simple contracts. In the context of the 2026 Grammy Awards, that could mean markets tied to questions like whether a specific artist will win Album of the Year or if a certain song takes home Record of the Year.
Each contract pays out $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not. If you think an artist will win and buy a βYesβ contract at 40 cents, that implies a 40 percent chance. If the artist wins, the contract settles at $1, netting 60 cents per share. If not, it settles at $0. Prices fluctuate as users buy and sell, so the market reflects the collective expectations of the crowd.
How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?
Unlike sportsbooks, Kalshi users trade directly with each other in an open market rather than betting against a house. Prices are expressed in cents as implied probabilities, and positions can be sold early to lock in gains or limit losses. For entertainment events like the Grammys, the focus is on forecasting outcomes, not beating a fixed line, offering more flexibility and transparency than traditional betting.
Why should I wager on the Grammy Awards at Kalshi?
Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:
- Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
- Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
- Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
- Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.
β Grammy Awards FAQs
When will the 2026 Grammy Awards take place?
The 2026 Grammy Awards will take place on Sunday, Feb. 1, 2026 at 8 p.m. ET.
Where are the Grammy Awards held?
The Grammy Awards are held at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.
Who will host the Grammy Awards?
Trevor Noah is hosting the Grammy Awards.
How can I watch the Grammy Awards?
You can watch the Grammy Awards on CBS or stream live on Paramount+.
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