2026 Grammys Favorites: Who's Favored for Song, Record of the Year in Prediction Markets?

The 68th Annual Grammy Awards will be hosted by Trevor Noah on Sunday, Feb. 1, at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, and I'm highlighting the 2026 Grammys favorites for major awards, including Song of the Year and Record of the Year.

Bad Bunny's "DeBI TiRAR MaS FOToS" continues to be the favorite for Album of the Year, but Lady Gaga has seen a massive surge of late. Does she really have a chance to pull the upset? And if she does, what does that mean for her chances of knocking off "luther" by Kendrick Lamar with SZA for Record of the Year?

Other favorites by the Grammys odds at prediction markets include "Golden" for Song of the Year, Olivia Dean for Best New Artist, and "Manchild" by Sabrina Carpenter for "Best Pop Solo Performance." Below, I highlight which favorites are locks and which are being overvalued at Kalshi.

🏆 Grammys favorites 2026

Here are the favorites at Kalshi for the biggest Grammys categories.

Predictions made based on the odds at Kalshi, a prediction trading market. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.

🎧 Album of the Year favorite: DeBI TiRAR MaS FOToS (54%)

Prediction: "GNX" was favored immediately after the Grammy nominations were announced, but "DeBI TiRAR MaS FOToS" took over as the favorite in early December and hasn't relinquished that position. At Kalshi, Bad Bunny's album has a 54% chance of winning, meaning that for every contract you purchase at 54 cents, you'll earn 46 cents of profit. This means that buying $10 worth of contracts would earn you $7 in profit.

Perhaps the most interesting thing about this category is the late surge that "MAYHEM" by Lady Gaga has seen. The album has overtaken "GNX" as traders' second-favorite in this category, seeing its odds increase from 15% to 24% in just a few days. Unfortunately for Lady Gaga, they don't give out Grammys for second place. With nearly $1 million traded on this award, Bad Bunny's percentage converted to a betting line is -117. That's great value for an album that has shown no signs of slowing momentum.

🎛️ Record of the Year favorite: luther (51%)

Prediction: "luther" has maintained a healthy lead over the competition throughout all of awards season. And while "APT." has consistently been the second-favorite at Kalshi, "Abracadabra" has closed the gap significantly in the last few weeks.

While "luther" currently has a 34% better chance of winning this category than any other record, if you convert 51% to a betting line, "luther" would be just -104. That hardly puts the song in a secure position entering Grammy night. With more than $500,000 traded on this category, traders can't decide whether "APT." or "Abracadabra" is the biggest threat to "luther." Lady Gaga is seeing a surge in other categories, but while I think her chances of winning other awards are low, the value here makes it impossible to overlook her. A 15-cent contract would pay 85 cents, so why not buy some shares, even if you end up selling before the ceremony when the price increases?

🎶 Song of the Year favorite: Golden (68%)

Prediction: While Record of the Year has some drama, the same cannot be said for Song of the Year. "Golden," from Netflix's most-streamed film of all time, "KPop Demon Hunters," has a nearly 70% chance of winning this award. Nearly $2.5 million has been traded in this category, making it the most popular award of the evening. You'd earn just 32 cents in profit for every contract you purchase for "Golden," and while that doesn't provide a lot of value, there really is no other choice in this category.

🆕 Best New Artist favorite: Olivia Dean (70%)

Prediction: Leon Thomas opened as the favorite, but Olivia Dean has surpassed him to become one of the biggest favorites of the night. This is a bit surprising, especially since Thomas earned a nomination for Album of the Year and Dean didn't. 

The odds for Dean have stayed steady, as the trading volume for this market reaches nearly $1.5 million. But there just isn't much value in purchasing a 70-cent contract to earn 30 cents. Therefore, I'll back Leon Thomas with his chances down at 18%. His odds have steadily decreased over the last two months, but I expect that to change soon. Since he has the Album of the Year nomination, I expect the public to back him late, increasing his chances of winning, and allowing you to sell your shares for a profit before the ceremony.

⭐ Best Pop Solo favorite: Manchild (70%)

Prediction: Just over $64,000 has been traded on this market, and the public continues to support "Manchild" by Sabrina Carpenter. However, purchasing a contract would cost 70 cents, while earning you a profit of just 30 cents. There's not much value in that.

While "Disease" and "Messy" currently have the second and third-best chances of winning, I believe that "The Subway" by Chapell Roan provides the most value in this category. After all, "The Subway" and "Manchild" were both nominated for Record of the Year, while "Disease" and "Messy" weren't nominated for Record or Song of the Year. On Sunday, "The Subway" will have the second-best chance of winning this award, so you can sell some shares for a profit before tuning in to see if the song can pull the upset.

What is Kalshi and how does it work for the 2026 Grammy Awards?

Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated prediction market exchange overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, where users trade on real-world outcomes using simple contracts. In the context of the 2026 Grammy Awards, that could mean markets tied to questions like whether a specific artist will win Album of the Year or if a certain song takes home Record of the Year.

Each contract pays out $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not. If you think an artist will win and buy a “Yes” contract at 40 cents, that implies a 40 percent chance. If the artist wins, the contract settles at $1, netting 60 cents per share. If not, it settles at $0. Prices fluctuate as users buy and sell, so the market reflects the collective expectations of the crowd.

How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?

Unlike sportsbooks, Kalshi users trade directly with each other in an open market rather than betting against a house. Prices are expressed in cents as implied probabilities, and positions can be sold early to lock in gains or limit losses. For entertainment events like the Grammys, the focus is on forecasting outcomes, not beating a fixed line, offering more flexibility and transparency than traditional betting.

Why should I wager on the Grammy Awards at Kalshi?

Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:

• Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
• Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
• Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
• Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.

❓ Grammy Awards FAQs

When will the 2026 Grammy Awards take place?

The 2026 Grammy Awards will take place on Sunday, Feb. 1 at 8 p.m. ET.

Where are the Grammy Awards held?

The Grammy Awards are held at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.

Who will host the Grammy Awards?

Trevor Noah is hosting the Grammy Awards.

How can I watch the Grammy Awards?

You can watch the Grammy Awards on CBS or stream live on Paramount+.