Food City 500 Picks 2024: NASCAR Betting Odds & Preview for Bristol Motor Speedway

It’s Bristol, baby! Our Food City 500 picks are ready for the excitement and, as always, are based on the best NASCAR odds for Bristol Motor Speedway from our best sports betting sites.

NASCAR has implemented some changes at Bristol Motor Speedway after three seasons. Instead of racing on dirt, drivers will be navigating the concrete track during Sunday's Food City 500, marking the second short-track race of the 2024 season.

Additionally, they will be racing in daylight on solid ground for the first time in that period. This week also signifies the fifth distinct track layout in five weeks, resulting in four different victors in the initial four races and a competitive field according to the most recent NASCAR Cup Series championship odds.  

Chevrolet emerged victorious in the initial three races of the season, with Ross Chastain finishing sixth as the sole representative of the manufacturer last week in Phoenix. This week, only one of the top 10 drivers listed across our best sportsbooks will be behind the wheel of a Chevy.  

Here are our Food City 500 picks for Sunday's race based on the NASCAR odds for Bristol Motor Speedway (odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Food City 500 picks

• Favorite: Denny Hamlin (+550 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Long shot: Kyle Busch (+1800 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
• Prop: Over 3.5 Chevys in top 10 (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Odds to win Food City 500 2024

Odds as of Sunday at 2:00 p.m. ET.

Food City 500 field

This week’s entry list contains 36 drivers with everyone guaranteed to make the race. Several drivers will be making their first start on this track in the spring on concrete. Also, this is the first time in three seasons a race will be run during the day at Bristol Motor Speedway without the dirt track.

Kyle Busch leads all active drivers with eight wins on the current track configuration. Kyle Larson has enjoyed success at this track, as well, finishing inside of the top 10 in eight of his last nine races here. 

Denny Hamlin won the last race held at Bristol in the fall of last season. Larson came in second that night, accounting for his second top-five finish in a row under the lights. Christopher Bell and Ty Gibbs, then a rookie, also appeared in the top five for Toyota.

Food City 500 expert predictions

Favorite: Denny Hamlin (+550 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Hamlin is tied with Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski with three wins on the concrete configuration of Bristol, which is the third-most among active drivers. In his 33 career starts on the paved track, he has 17 top-10 finishes and 10 top-five outings, and his FedEx Camry took home the checkered flag last fall during the night race at Bristol.

Last season, Hamlin ranked second in both total speed rankings and green flag speed during the fall race at Bristol. He mirrored those results during the 2021 race here, falling behind only Larson in both total speed ranking and green flag speed.

We have seen a quick dip in his price as of late. BetMGM has listed him at +550 to open and has slipped to +525. DraftKings has also dropped him down from +500 to +475. If you want a piece of Hamlin, now is the best time to do so.

Long shot: Kyle Busch (+1800 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Busch leads all active drivers with eight wins on the current configuration of this track. He also has one on the dirt here, as well. With all that success, this price may not seem right as a long shot, though his last three starts at Bristol resulted in finishes of 21st, 34th, and 20th in that span. 

Clearly, those results are driving his price so high, though Busch had finished six of his seven previous races in the top five with three wins before that recent skid. He's tied with Harvick for the most top-five finishes at Bristol (14) and has led the most laps on this track (2,593), pacing Harvick by more than 1,300 laps.

It has been a rocky start to the season for the No. 8 team with just one top-five finish and three outside of the top 10. The books reflect the uncertainty of what Busch is capable of at this track with DraftKings as short at +1100 on him to win, so if you like his chances this week, it's hard to beat these +1800 odds at bet365.

Prop: Over 3.5 Chevys in top 10 (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

There are currently 14 Chevrolets on the entry list for this Bristol race. Ford will also have 14 entries with Toyota accounting for the remaining eight cars.

Over the last three night races here, there have been at least four bow ties inside of the top 10. This prop has also cashed in two of the last three spring concrete races at Bristol, and we've seen at least four Camaros inside the top 10 in two of the four races this season.

While they missed this mark in Las Vegas, Chevy had five representatives in the top 12 at the checkered flag, and we like their chances this week for a similar showing.

Previous Food City 500 winners

* Race featured a dirt track from 2021-23

Food City 500 info

• Date: Sunday, March 17 at 3:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Bristol Motor Speedway, Bristol, TN
• How to watch: FOX
• Defending winner: Brad Keselowski (2020)

Food City 500 picks made Friday at 11 a.m. ET

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