Florida Governor Election Odds & Prediction: Latest Prediction Markets for Gubernational Race

It's been a long, long time since Florida elected a Democratic governor, and the Florida governor election odds show that's unlikely to change when the state votes on Nov. 3, 2026.

But there will be a change of a different kind, and it'll still be consequential. The real contest will lie in the state's gubernatorial Republican primary, which is set to take place Aug. 18. That's when we'll know who the party will choose as the hopeful successor to Ron DeSantis, the current state governor who's term-limited.

🗳️ What party will win the Florida governor election in 2026?

Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.

The Republicans have long been dominating state gubernatorial elections in Florida, even back when the Sunshine State was more in play for the presidency.

That seems certain to remain true this time around as well, and it's surprising the GOP's odds of winning dipped to even 80.5% last March. That's been the low point, and the odds hovered around 95% for much of last summer before slightly wavering and resting at a still very comfortable 88% now.

DeSantis has held office since 2019, when he took over for fellow Republican Rick Scott, who was also term-limited after eight years. A Republican has been in the chair since 1999, going back to Jeb Bush. Gazing a touch further back, we've seen just eight years of Democratic control since 1991 through two governors. No Democrat has won a gubernatorial election in Florida since 1994.

As both history and the prediction markets show, the question now is less about what party rises to power but rather what direction the next Republican candidate takes the party toward, bringing the state with them.

🐘 Who will be the Florida Republican governor nominee?

The Sunshine State also used to be a battleground in the U.S. presidential election odds, but less so in recent years.

Casey DeSantis, who's the current First Lady of Florida, is running to succeed her husband, but she's getting a mere 3% chance in this market, as is Jay Collins.

Byron Donalds holds a commanding lead both here in the prediction market and in the polls. The most recent polls via The New York Times show him with a colossal 15-percentage-point lead, surely due in large part to getting an endorsement from Donald Trump.

The president carries significant power in the state. It's his second home due to the ever-looming presence of his Mar-a-Lago residence, and he easily cruised to a 13-point victory in Florida during the 2024 election.

The state's First Lady was once thought of as a more imposing challenger, in part to carry on her husband's Florida legacy. But she peaked at 34.6% in this market last March, and there's been a gradual fall since. Meanwhile, Donalds had a blip in September when he dipped to 42.5%, but he's generally been at 75% or higher since October.

🔮 Florida governor election prediction

Donalds, who's been in Congress since 2021, first rose to prominence during the Tea Party movement.

That led into the transition to becoming a Trump loyalist, which wasn't a reach from there. The result was the president saying in his endorsement that Donalds would "work closely with me to advance our America First agenda," via Roll Call.

He gained further notoriety for being part of the Freedom Caucus when Donalds first entered Congress, which was a group of new GOP members in the house trying to counteract the views of those on the further left.

Donalds also didn't accept Joe Biden as the winner of the 2020 election, according to Vanity Fair. That was among many public backings that further solidified him as MAGA through and through, leading to Donalds being in a prime position in a state where Trump carries massive influence.

Prediction: Byron Donalds to be the next Florida governor

🔀 Kalshi explainer: How Florida governor election prediction markets work for 2026

Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated prediction market exchange where users trade on real-world outcomes, including U.S. political events. The Florida governor's race is among the political offerings to follow.

These markets focus on a simple question: Who will officially become the next governor of Florida? Contracts are tied to named candidates, with outcomes settled based on formal party certification at the conclusion of the nomination process.

Prices are displayed in cents and function as implied probabilities, updating continuously as new information enters the market.

📈 2026 Florida governor markets on Kalshi

What does a Florida governor market measure?

A Florida governor market measures whether a specific individual becomes the official governor in 2026.

The contract language defines the outcome clearly, and settlement is based on objective, verifiable events such as party conventions or official party announcements.

How do prices work?

• Prices range from 1 cent to 99 cents
• A 40-cent contract implies a 40% chance based on market consensus
• If the candidate becomes the nominee, the contract settles at $1
• If not, it settles at $0

Prices move as participants react to polling changes, endorsements, fundraising disclosures, debate performances, and candidate exits.

Can positions be exited early?

Yes. Contracts can typically be sold before the nomination is decided. That flexibility allows participants to respond to breaking news or shifts in momentum rather than holding a position until the final outcome.

How is Kalshi different from sportsbooks?

Kalshi operates as an exchange, not a house. Participants trade directly with each other, and prices are set by supply and demand instead of fixed odds.

Key distinctions include:

• Probabilities shown in cents rather than traditional odds
• Focus on real-world outcomes, not margins or spreads
• Ability to adjust or close positions before resolution

For political markets, success depends on interpreting information flow rather than predicting performance on a field.

Is Kalshi regulated?

Yes. Kalshi is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Market rules, settlement criteria, and contract definitions are published in advance.

🆚 What sports fans need to know about politcal prediction markets

If you are used to tracking championship futures, Florida governor markets are not that different.

Instead of asking which team wins it all, the market is asking which candidate survives a long, multi-stage process and ends up as governor. Prices move the same way futures prices do, reacting to momentum, injuries - here replaced by scandals or dropouts - and changes in public perception.

A candidate trading at 30 cents is essentially the market saying, “Right now, this person has about a one-in-three shot.” If that candidate lands key endorsements or posts strong polling numbers, the price can move quickly.

What makes governor markets especially interesting is the timeline. This is not a one-night event. It is months of news cycles, debates, fundraising reports, and strategic decisions. That gives participants time to think, react, and reassess as the race evolves.

For sports fans who already understand probabilities and market movement, political prediction markets feel familiar. The scoreboard is just different.