Fever vs. Sun Prediction, Expert Picks & WNBA Odds: Caitlin Clark Makes Playoff Debut

As Caitlin Clark makes her playoff debut, the Indiana Fever are in for a rude awakening against the Connecticut Sun.

Rob Paul

Last updated: September 21, 2024 2:21 PM EDT • 4 min read

Indiana Fever guard Caitlin Clark moves the ball against Connecticut Sun guard DiJonai Carrington. We're fading Clark in our Fever vs. Sun Prediction. — Indiana Fever guard Caitlin Clark moves the ball against Connecticut Sun guard DiJonai Carrington. Photo by David Butler II via Imagn Images.

After a dominant rookie season, Caitlin Clark makes her WNBA playoff debut on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET (ABC) against the Connecticut Sun at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Conn.

In our Fever vs. Sun prediction, we breakdown why Clark could have a tough time against Connecticut
The Sun are one of just four teams with WNBA championship odds of +800 or shorter
Connecticut is a 5.5-point home favorite at our best sports betting sites

Can Clark lead the Fever to their first playoff win since 2015 against the Sun?

Fever vs. Sun expert picks

WNBA picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best sports betting apps.

Sun -5.5 (+100 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐
Caitlin Clark Under 34.5 points + rebounds + assists (-118 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Alyssa Thomas Over 8.5 assists (+100 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐

Fever vs. Sun prediction

Sun -5.5 (+100) ⭐⭐⭐

With the third-best record in the WNBA this season, it's surprising to see the Sun have even money odds to cover against a Fever team that hasn't reached the playoffs since 2015.

While Indiana did heat up in the second half of the season, defense is still a huge issue. The Fever give up the second-most points per game (87.7) and are second-last in defensive rating (109.5).

With a playmaker like Alyssa Thomas feeding DeWanna Bonner (15 PPG), Marina Mabrey (14.9 PPG), and DiJonai Carrington (12.7 PPG), Stephanie White's team can take advantage. The Sun are fourth in the WNBA in offensive rating (105.0).

The Fever win because they can score enough to hide their putrid defense, but that won't be the case against Connecticut. This is the best defense in the WNBA - ranking first in points allowed (73.6) and rating (96.4).

If the Sun can cover, a $10 bet pays a $10 profit.

Best odds: +100 via Betway | Implied probability: 50%

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Best Fever vs. Sun player props

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Caitlin Clark Under 34.5 points + rebounds + assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐

For as unstoppable as Clark has been this season, Connecticut seems to be the one team that knows exactly how to slow her down.

Clark is averaging a combined 22.3 points, rebounds, and assists in four games against the Sun this season. She didn't go Over 34.5 in any of those four games.

With Conneticut's defense allowing the fewest 3-pointers per game (6.5), the fewest rebounds per game (31.7), and the second-fewest assists per game (19.1), I have a hard time seeing Clark going Over this number.

If Clark goes Under this number for the fifth straight time against the Sun, a $10 bet pays an $8.47 profit.

Best odds: -118 via Betway | Implied probability: 54.13%

Alyssa Thomas Over 8.5 assists ⭐⭐⭐

The only player in the WNBA who came close to threatening Clark as the league leader in assists per game this season was Thomas.

She put up 7.9 per game and that number jumped to 8.8 in her four games against Indiana this season. Thomas closed out the final six regular-season games by averaging 9.6 assists and going Over 8.5 four times.

Her pace should continue into the playoffs against this Indiana defense. The Fever allow the fourth-most assists per game (21.4). If she goes Over 8.5 apples against Indiana, a $10 bet pays a $10 profit.

Best odds: +100 via Betway | Implied probability: 50%

Fever vs. Sun odds

	Betway
Sun	-5.5 (+100)
Fever	+5.5 (-120)

Fever vs. Sun game info

When: Sunday, Sept. 22
Tip-off: 3 p.m. ET
Where: Mohegan Sun Arena (Uncasville, Conn.)
How to watch: ABC
Favorite: Sun -5.5 (+100 via Betway)

Fever-Sun predictions made Saturday at 12:30 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Rob Paul

Rob is a Publishing Editor at Sportsbook Review. He’s been with the team since early 2024, with this being his first full-time role in the sports betting industry. Before joining SportsbookReview.com, he contributed to various sports outlets, including FanSided and Pro Football Network. During that period, he spent five years working full-time as a local community journalist, after attending Durham College for journalism and Wilfrid Laurier University for history. He previously hosted an NFL draft and college football-focused podcast where he had the opportunity to interact with future NFL players such as Maxx Crosby and Quinn Meinerz. Rob has spent multiple years working as a freelance podcast producer for numerous sports-related podcasts while making guest appearances on several college football shows. He’s also made guest appearances on SportsTalk Mississippi on several occasions to talk all things NFL draft. Rob values the way sports betting acts as a catalyst for telling stories and growing interest in certain sports, particularly FCS football, WNBA, and mid-major college basketball. He’s always been drawn to the more obscure teams and conferences in major college sports, but most of all, Rob loves using stats to find the best player props to back.