US Grand Prix Best Bets, Odds: Expert F1 Prop Bets, Long Shot, Picks to Win
Max Verstappen is off to another hot start as I offer my United States Grand Prix best bets for Sunday's race (3 p.m. ET, ESPN). Verstappen is the +135 betting favorite after finishing in pole position for today's sprint session, which precedes qualifying.
The F1 picks below feature the four-time defending champion, Lando Norris, and a long-shot pick who won the last race in Singapore. Norris and teammate Oscar Piastri are receiving the second and third-shortest odds.
United States Grand Prix odds & favorites 2025
United States Grand Prix odds to win via BetMGM:
| Driver | Odds | Implied probability | Profit on a $10 bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | +135 | 42.55% | $13.50 |
| Lando Norris | +160 | 38.46% | $16 |
| Oscar Piastri | +400 | 20% | $40 |
| George Russell | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| Charles Leclerc | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +3300 | 2.94% | $330 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +4000 | 2.44% | $400 |
| Kimi Antonelli | +6600 | 1.49% | $660 |
| Fernando Alonso | +6600 | 1.49% | $600 |
| Alex Albon | +15000 | 0.66% | $1,500 |
| Carlos Sainz | +15000 | 0.66% | $1,500 |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | +30000 | 0.33% | $3,000 |
| Isack Hadjar | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Ollie Bearman | +100000 | 0.10% | $10,000 |
| Liam Lawson | +100000 | 0.10% | $10,000 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +100000 | 0.10% | $10,000 |
| Lance Stroll | +100000 | 0.10% | $10,000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +150000 | 0.07% | $15,000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +200000 | 0.05% | $20,000 |
| Franco Colapinto | +200000 | 0.05% | $20,000 |
United States Grand Prix predictions, expert picks & best bets
Here are my United States Grand Prix best bets for tomorrow's race at Circuit of the Americas based on the latest odds from the best F1 betting sites.
Pick to win United States Grand Prix: Max Verstappen ⭐⭐⭐⭐
If nothing else, Verstappen is doing his utmost to make the final third of the season competitive. He's found a way to suppress Norris and Piastri's previous unrelenting dominance.
The first signs of discord at the Singapore Grand Prix between the Papaya drivers have also accentuated the intrigue.
For the third race in a row at the US Grand Prix, Verstappen has taken pole position for Saturday's sprint session after pipping both Norris and Piastri. He is in peak form, punctuated by two wins and two second-place finishes from the previous four races.
The four-time defending champion has won three of the previous four US Grand Prix races, putting him in the perfect position to win again in Austin.
Of the best sports betting sites, the odds at DraftKings (+175) offer the best possible profit, where a winning $10 bet will profit $17.50.
Best odds: +175 via DraftKings
Best value bet to win United States Grand Prix: Lando Norris ⭐⭐⭐
Norris is clearly enjoying a moment of superiority over his less-experienced teammate. The Brit finished in front of Piastri in the previous three races and did it again in sprint qualifying, finishing second.
For much of the sprint qualifying, it looked as though Norris had done enough to secure pole position for Saturday's sprint session.
Verstappen then scuppered those chances with an impressively aggressive and error-free lap. Norris hasn't won in four races, a streak dating back to Hungary at the start of August. And he hasn't won at Austin either, with his best result a second-place finish in 2023.
At this stage of pre-race festivities, I wouldn't be surprised to see him finish as the bridesmaid at Circuit of the Americas for the second time. bet365 is the best place to lock in this wager, as its $22.50 profits on a $10 winning bet are $4.50 more than Caesars (+180) at the low end of the market.
Best odds: +225 via bet365
Best long shot to win United States Grand Prix: George Russell ⭐⭐⭐
Russell was there to take advantage of the opening-lap collision in Singapore between Norris, Verstappen, and Piastri. A similar mistake from the three favorites will be required for Russell to win his second straight race and third of the season.
There is no better long shot for this race based on current form and the early ongoings in Austin. Russell finished fifth in sprint qualifying, behind the three race favorites and Niko Nico Hulkenberg. He has three podium finishes in the last six races, placing first and second in the previous two.
Meanwhile, despite Charles Leclerc's results being far superior in Austin, the defending US Grand Prix winner hasn't finished better than fourth in the previous four races. And he struggled mightily in sprint qualifying, finishing 10th.
If you're keen on taking a chance on Russell, do it at bet365. It is offering an outlier price of +2500, where a winning $10 bet will profit $250. Most of the other best sports betting apps offer +1600, which would profit $160.
Best odds: +2500 via bet365
Best prop bet for United States Grand Prix: Winning margin under 5 seconds ⭐⭐⭐
The Circuit of the Americas represents the seventh-slowest average speed on the F1 circuit. That slower speed not only favors a Red Bull car that his slightly inferior to the McLaren MCL39, but it also lends itself to a tightly contested race throughout.
Unless the McLaren drivers or Verstappen make a mistake, I don't envision the lead car separating itself beyond five seconds.
The pick has been downgraded from four to three stars due to the short -150 odds, which imply a 60% probability. A winning $10 bet at FanDuel would profit $6.67.
Best odds: -150 via FanDuel
United States Grand Prix FP1 results
- Lando Norris (McLaren)
- Nico Hulkenberg (Kick Sauber)
- Oscar Piastri (McLaren)
- Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin)
- Max Verstappen (Red Bull Racing Honda RBPT)
- Alexander Albon (Williams)
- George Russell (Mercedes)
- Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)
- Isack Hadjar (Racing Bulls Honda RBPT)
- Oliver Bearman (Haas)
United States Grand Prix Sprint Qualifying results
- Max Verstappen (Red Bull Racing Honda RBPT)
- Lando Norris (McLaren)
- Oscar Piastri (McLaren)
- Nico Hulkenberg (Kick Sauber)
- George Russell (Mercedes)
- Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin)
- Carlos Sainz (Williams)
- Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)
- Alexander Albon (Williams)
- Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)
📈 United States Grand Prix trends & history
- Circuit of the Americas was completed at a cost of around $400 million USD and welcomed 117,429 race-day fans for its inaugural F1 race in November 2012
- The track, 3.427 miles (5.515 km), is located on 890 acres (3.6 km2) of land, located 14 miles (22km) southeast of central Austin
- The Austin360 Amphitheater and the permanent main grandstand holds 9,000 fans
- In 2021, over 400,000 fans attended over race weekend
- The Circuit of the Americas will remain as host of the United States Grand Prix until at least 2026
- Lewis Hamilton has won the most United States Grand Prix races (6), including a run of six out of seven and four in a row
- Ferrari is the most successful team at the race, with 10 wins
- No American driver has won the United States Grand Prix since it became part of the Formula One circuit
- Circuit of the Americas has a difference of 30.9 meters between the lowest and highest points, one of the largest discrepancies
- It is the seventh-slowest track on the circuit, according to its 214.955 km/h average speed
- Charles Leclerc has the lap record (1:36.169), which he set 2019
How to bet on United States Grand Prix
When betting on any grand prix, there are many things to consider, some more crucial than others: Here's some tips for the United States GP:
- The United States Grand Prix is the seventh slowest, which should favor cars that don't perform as well as the MCL39, like Verstappen's Red Bull
- The sprint winner will be the betting favorite going into Saturday's GP qualification. However, the price won't be as good if you wait until after the sprint.
- That said, qualification can change things significantly, and waiting until after the sprint session might provide more insight while offering better odds for those who don't win
- Sunday will be hot and slightly gusty, with a temperature of 84 degrees and winds between 12 mph and 17 mph
🏆 Past United States Grand Prix winners
Here is a look at the last 10 United States Grand Prix winners.
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 🇲🇨 Charles Leclerc | Ferrari |
| 2023 | 🇳🇱 Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-Honda RBPT |
| 2022 | 🇳🇱 Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-RBPT |
| 2021 | 🇳🇱 Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-Honda |
| 2020 | Not held due to COVID-19 pandemic | Not held due to COVID-19 pandemic |
| 2019 | 🇫🇮 Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes |
| 2018 | 🇫🇮 Kimi Räikkönen | Ferrari |
| 2017 | 🇬🇧 Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2016 | 🇬🇧 Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2015 | 🇬🇧 Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2014 | 🇬🇧 Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
📺 How to watch the 2025 United States Grand Prix
- Race date: Sunday, Oct. 19
- Start time: 3 p.m. ET
- Track: Circuit of the Americas (Austin, Texas)
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: ESPN+
- Weather: 84 degrees, 7-mph to 11-mph winds, 0% chance of precipitation
🗓️ United States Grand Prix schedule
Practice 1: Friday, Oct. 17; 1:30 p.m. ETSprint Qualifying: Friday, Oct. 17; 5:30 p.m. ET- Sprint: Saturday, Oct. 18; 1 p.m. ET
- Qualifying: Saturday, Oct. 18; 5 p.m. ET
- Race: Sunday, Oct. 19; 3 p.m. ET
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