Mexican Grand Prix Best Bets, Odds: F1 Prop Bets, Long Shot, Picks to Win
Max Verstappen has flipped the F1 season on its head with a hot streak reminiscent of the innumerable he pulled off during his four successive championships, and the Dutchman is featured in my Mexican Grand Prix best bets.
Lando Norris is the +120 betting favorite at the F1 betting sites, but Max Verstappen (+130) is close behind. The Dutchman has won five straight events, including last week's United States Grand Prix. Charles Leclerc - my long-shot pick - put in a solid second-fastest time in FP2. Sunday's race starts at 4 p.m. ET from Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez in Mexico City (ESPN).
Mexican Grand Prix odds & favorites 2025
Mexican Grand Prix odds to win via FanDuel.
| Driver | Odds | Implied probability | Profit on a $10 bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lando Norris | +120 | 45.45% | $12 |
| Max Verstappen | +130 | 43.48% | $13 |
| Oscar Piastri | +750 | 11.76% | $75 |
| Charles Leclerc | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| George Russell | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +2700 | 3.57% | $270 |
| Kimi Antonelli | +5000 | 1.96% | $500 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +20000 | 0.50% | $2,000 |
| Isack Hadjar | +20000 | 0.50% | $2,000 |
| Liam Lawson | +40000 | 0.25% | $4,000 |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | +40000 | 0.25% | $4,000 |
| Carlos Sainz | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Fernando Alonso | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Alex Albon | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Franco Colapinto | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Lance Stroll | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Oliver Bearman | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
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Mexican Grand Prix predictions, expert picks & best bets
Here are my Mexican Grand Prix best bets for Sunday's race at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez. It's the 19th race of the 24 scheduled for the 2025 season.
Pick to win Mexican Grand Prix: Max Verstappen ⭐⭐⭐⭐
It's still early, having just finished FP1 and FP2, but so far it's the same story as it was at the United States Grand Prix. Verstappen was the fastest in FP2, this time edging out Charles Leclerc. Papaya struggled again, with Norris finishing with the fourth-fastest time and Oscar Piastri down in 12th.
I backed Verstappen in my Mexican Grand Prix odds and predictions after taking him to win in Austin last week. I'm doubling down here after seeing him saunter to the fastest FP2 time. The four-time defending champion is enjoying his best patch in over a year, and he is usually superb in Mexico, with his five victories the most of any driver.
His odds moved from +100 to -125 after FP2. Get in on these while you still can. Of course, if you don't fancy his chances to win qualifying, wait and see if you can get a better price.
Of the best sports betting sites, the odds at DraftKings offer the best possible profit, where a winning $10 bet will profit $9.09.
Best odds: -110 via DraftKings
Best value bet to win Mexican Grand Prix: Lando Norris ⭐⭐⭐
The McLaren drivers haven't won in four races, their longest barren stretch of the season. Their previous longest run without a win? One race, which occurred three times beforehand.
While Norris hasn't won in five races, he has been the second-best driver on the circuit in that timeframe, finishing second twice, third, and seventh. He's also the driver I believe will win his first championship despite trailing Piastri by 14 points. In my Formula 1 prediction, which was written during the season's summer break, I outlined why Norris will overturn the deficit.
Will he win in Mexico City on Sunday? I don't think so, but he has the best chance outside of Verstappen, and his +350 odds, which lengthened from +250 prior to FP1 and FP2, offer enough value to take a shot.
Like in two of his previous four races, Norris finished second last year in Mexico City. A winning $10 bet at FanDuel will profit $36.
Best odds: +360 via FanDuel
Best long shot to win Mexican Grand Prix: Charles Leclerc ⭐⭐
If you've been following my picks intently, you'll know that picking a long shot to win is as improbable as neither McLaren driver finishing in the top 10.
The only long-shot winner of the season thus far was George Russell in both of his victories (Singapore and Montreal).
Leclerc's track record at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez instills added confidence, though, as he has landed on the podium in the two previous Mexican GP races and also has a fourth, fifth, and sixth-place finish there.
Leclerc managed a podium finish in Austin, too, the first time he cracked the top three in five races. Of the best sports betting apps, Caesars and FanDuel offer the best value, where a winning $10 bet profits $110.
Best odds: +1100 via Caesars
Best prop bet for Mexican Grand Prix: Max Verstappen race win & fastest lap ⭐⭐⭐
I'm leveraging Verstappen's recent dominant run by backing him to do the double in Mexico City. He secured the fastest lap twice this season, the last of which came in Azerbaijan, the race after his recent hot streak began. If Verstappen can take pole position and start on the grid first, there's a solid chance that, with no obstructions or impediments in his sightline, he can finish with the fastest lap time.
DraftKings' +200 odds imply a 33.33% probability, and a winning $10 bet will profit $20.
Best odds: +200 via DraftKings
Mexican Grand Prix FP2 results
- Max Verstappen (Red Bull Racing Honda RBPT)
- Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)
- Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)
- Lando Norris (McLaren)
- Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)
- George Russell (Mercedes)
- Yuki Tsunoda (Red Bull Racing Honda RBPT)
- Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin)
- Carlos Sainz (Williams)
- Lance Stroll (Aston Martin)
Mexican Grand Prix FP1 results
- Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)
- Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)
- Nico Hulkenberg (Kick Sauber)
- Oscar Piastri (McLaren)
- Gabriel Bortoleto (Kick Sauber)
- Arvid Lindblad (Red Bull Racing)
- Esteban Ocon (Haas F1 Team)
- Yuki Tsunoda (Red Bull Racing Honda RBPT)
- Franco Colapinto (Alpine)
- Alexander Albon (Williams)
📈 Mexican Grand Prix trends & history
- The Mexican Grand Prix at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez in Mexico City returned to the F1 circuit in 2015 after a 23-year hiatus
- The first Mexican Grand Prix was held in 1962
- In 1963, the race became part of the Formula 1 World Championship
- The Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez is the third-slowest track on the F1 grid, with average speeds of 204.019 km/h
- Only Marina Bay Circuit (198.648 km/h) and Circuit de Monaco (170.958 km/h) are slower
- The circuit was redesigned by Hermann Tilke ahead of F1’s return in 2015. A slow-speed stadium section was added, cutting off half of Peraltada final corner
- In 2021, Sergio Perez became the first Mexican driver to finish on the podium at the Mexican Grand Prix
- He finished on the podium again the following year
- In 2021, Verstappen became the first driver to record three wins at the Mexican Grand Prix
- Red Bull are the most successful team in Mexico, having taken five victories in Mexico City
- At 2,240 meters above sea level, the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez is by far the highest track, with the next highest in Brazil (765 meters)
- Verstappen is the only driver to have won two consecutively and three straight in Mexico (2018, 2019 and 2021-23)
- There have been 12 different pole-sitters in the last 13 F1 races in Mexico. Leclerc is the only driver to have taken multiple poles here in that time frame.
- Only two of the last seven pole-sitters won the race, both of which came in the last three years (Verstappan in 2022 and Carlos Sainz in 2024)
- Verstappen has logged the most Mexican Grand Prix wins (five)
How to bet on Mexican Grand Prix
When betting on any grand prix, there are many things to consider, some more crucial than others: Here are some tips for the Mexican GP:
- The Mexican Grand Prix is the third-slowest track, which should favor cars that don't perform as well as the MCL39, like Verstappen's Red Bull
- With only two of the previous seven pole-sitters winning the race, there is value in backing drivers who don't win qualifying. However, play it smartly.
- If Verstappen wins pole, I expect him to win. If Verstappen finished as low as third in qualifying, his odds to win will offer excellent value
- Leclerc has an excellent track record in Mexico City, so keep that in mind if you're looking for a long shot to back
🏆 Past Mexican Grand Prix winners
Here is a look at the last nine Mexican Grand Prix winners.
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 🇪🇸 Carlos Sainz | Ferrari |
| 2023 | 🇳🇱 Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-Honda RBPT |
| 2022 | 🇳🇱 Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-RBPT |
| 2021 | 🇳🇱 Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-Honda |
| 2020 | Not held due to COVID-19 pandemic | Not held due to COVID-19 pandemic |
| 2019 | 🇬🇧 Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2018 | 🇳🇱 Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer |
| 2017 | 🇳🇱 Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer |
| 2016 | 🇬🇧 Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2015 | 🇩🇪 Nico Rosberg | Mercedes |
📺 How to watch the 2025 Mexican Grand Prix
- Race date: Sunday, Oct. 26
- Start time: 4 p.m. ET
- Track: Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez (Mexico City)
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: ESPN+
- Weather: 79 °F, 7-mph to 11-mph winds, 20% chance of precipitation
🗓️ Mexican Grand Prix schedule
Practice 1: Friday, Oct. 24; 2:30 p.m. ETPractice 2: Friday, Oct. 24; 6 p.m. ET- Practice 3: Saturday, Oct. 25; 1:30 p.m. ET
- Qualifying: Saturday, Oct. 25; 5 p.m. ET
- Race: Sunday, Oct. 26; 4 p.m. ET
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