Emmy Odds, Favorites & Betting Picks 2025: Severance and The Pitt Battle For Major Awards

I'm diving into the Emmy odds for the 77th Primetime Emmy Awards that are set to take place at the Peacock Theater on Sunday, Sept. 14, 2025, at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT. "Severance" leads all shows with 27 nominations, while "The Studio" earned 23 nominations, tied for the most for a comedy series in Emmy history.

Below, I discuss all the main Emmy categories, and explain who could get upset, who's a lock, and more.

Emmy odds 2025

Here are the 2025 Emmy odds from FanDuel Ontario and my best predictions for the most notable awards.

Outstanding Comedy Series odds & prediction

• The Studio: -750
• Hacks: +750
• The Bear: +2000
• Only Murders in the Building: +2200
• Nobody Wants This: +2600
• Shrinking: +3000
• Abbott Elementary: +3500
• What We Do in the Shadows: +4500

My prediction: The Studio

It's hard to imagine "The Studio" not winning this category. Apple TV+'s latest hit earned 23 nominations, which is the most ever for a first-year comedy series. It also ties "The Bear" Season 2 for the most nominations for a Comedy in a single year.

Interestingly, "The Bear" didn't win best comedy last season, instead losing to "Hacks", which is currently the second-favorite in this category. However, I'm not giving either "The Bear" or "Hacks" much of a chance this year for a few reasons. First, both shows have already won this award. Last year's loss for "The Bear" shows just how reluctant voters are to award the same show twice. In six of the last seven years, the show that won was winning for the first time, with only "Ted Lasso" taking home the award twice.

"The Studio" is the exact kind of behind-the-scenes content that Hollywood voters love to award. With all the hype around the show and the closest competition already victorious, I don't see how it loses.

Outstanding Drama Series odds & prediction

• Severance: -250
• The Pitt: +210
• The White Lotus: +1400
• The Last of Us: +1600
• Andor: +2300
• Paradise: +2800
• Slow Horses: +2800
• The Diplomat: +3500

My prediction: The Pitt 

While there is very little drama surrounding the Outsanding Comedy Series category, there is plenty here. "Severance" is currently favored to take home the crown, but for my money, this is where I'll be taking a risk.

Season 1 of "The Pitt" was a breath of fresh air for a genre that has felt stale for a long time. The show covers one 15-hour shift, picking up all the drama and chaos that takes place inside an emergency room. And while it may not be the fan-favorite, it's much more digestible for the majority of audiences than "Severance."

Other contenders in this category are "The White Lotus" and "The Last of Us," but I would be shocked if either of those shows wins this category. "The White Lotus" wasn't as beloved as the first two seasons due to what many believed were pacing issues, and "The Last of Us" just doesn't have any momentum entering this awards season.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series odds & prediction

• Seth Rogen (The Studio): -700
• Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building): +650
• Jeremy Allen White (The Bear): +1700
• Adam Brody (Nobody Wants This): +3100
• Jason Segel (Shrinking): +3500

My prediction: Seth Rogen (The Studio)

In mid-August, Rogen's odds sat at -340, giving him a 77.27% chance to win. Now his odds have more than doubled, and FanDuel is giving him an 87.50% chance to win his first Emmy.

Rogen is a heavy-favorite despite going up against two-time defending champion, Jeremy Allen White, who has taken home the trophy for "The Bear" in back-to-back years. However, White seems like an afterthought in this category this year, with his odds implying he has less than a 6% chance of winning.

Martin Short has the second-shortest odds to win this award, but he's already lost three times for his role in "Only Murders in the Building", and with all the hype around "The Studio," I find it hard to believe that he has any chance against Rogen.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series odds & prediction

• Noah Wyle (The Pitt): -370
• Adam Scott (Severance): +430
• Pedro Pascal (The Last of Us): +1600
• Gary Oldman (Slow Horses): +2600
• Sterling K. Brown (Paradise): +2900

My prediction: Noah Wyle (The Pitt)

From 1995 through 1999, Wyle was nominated five times for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series for his work in "ER." While Wyle never took home an award during that stretch, I don't think he's going to leave this year's Emmys empty-handed.

Though this category is stacked with talent, including Oscar-winner Gary Oldman and three-time Emmy-winner Sterling K. Brown, their pedigree can't carry them over Wyle. And while Pedro Pascal was great in "The Last of Us," calling him a leading actor seems like a stretch.

That means that this is a two-horse race, but really, Adam Scott's odds don't truly reflect his chances of winning. While he and the rest of the "Severance" cast have been praised for their work, it's the execution of the show that has garnered much of the acclaim. Wyle carried "The Pitt," so I don't expect any surprises in this category.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series odds & prediction

• Jean Smart (Hacks): -900
• Ayo Edebiri (The Bear): +800
• Kristen Bell (Nobody Wants This): +2600
• Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary): +2600
• Uzo Aduba (The Residence): +3500

My prediction: Jean Smart (-900)

This is probably the least interesting category of the night. Jean Smart, who has won the Emmy for all three seasons of "Hacks", is destined to win again, and there's really no reason to believe differently.

Ayo Edebiri won Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series for "The Bear" in 2023, but she was unable to pull of a win last year, after she made the jump to Lead Actress. With both Edebiri and Smart putting another season under their belt, there's no reason to expect the result to be different.

If you really want to take a chance on someone, I'd probably go with Kristen Bell. This is her first Primetime Emmy Award nomination, so there's always a chance that the Academy will reward her for the first season of her show. That said, at this point, it feels like betting on anyone but Smart is throwing money away.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series odds & prediction

• Kathy Bates (Matlock): -280
• Britt Lower (Severance): +240
• Bella Ramsey (The Last of Us): +1600
• Sharon Horgan (Bad Sisters): +2800
• Keri Russell (The Diplomat): +2800

My prediction: Britt Lower (Severance)

Kathy Bates is the feel-good story for her work in "Matlock," but this is the only acting category where I'd probably favor one of the underdogs. With how much acclaim "Severance" has earned, there aren't many areas for them to win if "The Pitt" gets as much credit as I think it will. That means Britt Lower's performance could ultimately be rewarded in a wide-open category as a way to honor the show.

Bates has already won two Primetime Emmy Awards, with her most recent coming in 2014 for "American Horror Story: Coven." But after the Emmys failed to nominate Lower for the first season of "Severance", I could see the Academy course correcting and rewarding someone they overlooked, rather than Bates, who has already been honored in the past.

Also, I wouldn't rule out Bella Ramsey or Keri Russell. Ramsey earns their second nomination for "The Last of Us," and they carried this season. And Russell has been nominated four times, yet still hasn't won despite some tremendous performances. I'll go with Lower, but if there's a surprise at the awards ceremony, this is where it will be.

❓ Emmys FAQs

When are the Emmys?

The 77th Primetime Emmy Awards will be at 8 p.m. ET on Sunday, Sept. 14, 2025.

Where are the Emmys?

The Emmys will be at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles.

Who's hosting the Emmys?

Nate Bargatze will host the Emmys.

How to watch the Emmys

The Emmys will air live on CBS and stream on Paramount+.

Who votes on the Emmys?

National Active members of the Television Academy vote on the Emmys.

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