Early Daytona 500 Predictions & Odds 2026: Best NASCAR Picks and Long Shots

While most of the world is focused on making their Super Bowl predictions, we're hunting for value bets of a different kind with our early Daytona 500 predictions ahead of next Sunday's race at 2:30 p.m. ET at Daytona International Speedway in Daytona Beach, Fla.

Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano are the favorites to win the Cup Series opener - and we're backing one of them to win Sunday - but given the chaotic nature of the Great American Race, it pays to be prepared for the entire 40-car field.

Here's everything you need to know about the NASCAR season opener, including the latest Daytona 500 odds, biggest storylines for Sunday, and my favorite Daytona 500 picks and long shots to bet right now.

🏁 Will William Byron make history with Daytona 3-peat?

Only five drivers in NASCAR history have ever won the Daytona 500s in back-to-back years. None have done it three years in a row, which is what Byron is attempting to do on Sunday after winning each of the last two years at this famed 2.5-mile superspeedway.

The odds are against Byron winning his third straight Daytona 500 with his price ranging from +1000 to +1300 - suggesting he has a roughly 7-9% chance of reaching Victory Lane again on Sunday. Yet he entered last year as an 18/1 long shot despite winning the year before, and he took advantage of some last-lap chaos to repeat on the beach.

It's hard to deny that he's mastered the ability to navigate the mess at Daytona and position himself to make the winning move late - as much as anyone can truly control that at a track as unforgiving and indiscriminate as this one.

He wouldn't be my bet to win this year, but it's pretty hard to count him out with a $10 bet returning anywhere from $100 to $130 in profit.

🏁 Can Team Penske finally reach Victory Lane?

No team has been more consistently near the front of the pack at this track in the Next Gen era than Team Penske, but it has just one win to show for it (Austin Cindric, 2022.)

The underlying data tells a different story. According to Daniel Cespedes - who is an excellent resource for NASCAR advanced stats - Team Penske has featured three of the four best drivers at Daytona in the Next Gen era (since 2022) among those with at least three starts.

Cindric (59), Logano (43), and Blaney (23) led the most laps of any drivers in last year's Daytona 500 before the chaos of the final few laps paved the way for Byron to steal the checkered flag. While Blaney is still looking for his first Daytona win, the other two have already won here before and controlled the majority of last year's race.

With so much unpredictability in this race, it's hard to project anything with too much confidence. But it's even harder for me to look past this group and one driver in particular for my Daytona 500 pick to win on Sunday.

🏆 Who will win the Daytona 500?

Joey Logano (+1200)

It's been 11 years since Logano claimed his first and only Daytona 500 victory back in 2015, which came in a different era (literally) of the NASCAR Cup Series. But the 35-year-old driver is just as dangerous at this track now as he was a decade ago.

In the current Next Gen era, Logano has been arguably the best superspeedway driver in the field. Check out this series of graphs from our friend Cespedes, which show Logano's incredible consistency among laps run in the top 3, top 5, top 10, and top 20 - with a rather convincing lead over Brad Keselowski at the very front of the pack.

Logano was charging to the front of the field last year before a collision with Ricky Stenhouse Jr. that wrecked those two and so, so many others. That's the price of aggression at Daytona, but it's also why the No. 22 has been near the front so often and with such consistency over the last four years (and beyond).

He's priced as the favorite across most of the best sports betting sites with +1000 odds or shorter, but you can grab him at +1200 odds via Caesars for an extra $2 of profit for every $10 you wager on Logano to win next weekend. At those odds, it's hard for me to turn down the opportunity to have stake in the best superspeedway driver in the field.

🎯 Who else is worth betting at Daytona? Picks & long shots

Here's the best and worst part about betting on the Daytona 500: anyone in the field can win.

That might sound like hyperbole if you've never watched the Daytona 500 before, but anyone who's seen a race at this superspeedway has probably watched The Big One derail half the field (or more) with no regard for favorites or long shots.

Some drivers simply know how to navigate the draft and record speeds at this 2.5-mile track, where speeds can creep toward 200 mph. I wouldn't advice investing too much in any one driver (Logano included) for this race, but here are a few drivers that interest me at their current odds and are worth a small wager before Sunday:

Austin Cindric (+1600)

All of those stats about Team Penske's success at this track include Cindric, who led the most laps of any driver last year but features the seventh-best odds at Caesars and sits as a distant third behind teammates Blaney and Logano. Cindric is the outright favorite at bet365 with +1000 odds; that alone makes him a compelling bet at these odds.

Kyle Busch (+2200)

Busch is one of the best drivers in NASCAR history with three crown jewel victories and a haunting list of close calls in the Daytona 500 - none resulting in a win. He's still one of the most consistent drivers at superspeedways even without recent wins to show for it, so I'm intrigued by these long-shot odds at FanDuel for his first-ever Daytona 500 win.

Chris Buescher (+2500)

It's pretty surprising to see Buescher this far down the list considering he's been statistically the best driver at this track over the last four years. He's finished in the top 10 in five of his last six races at Daytona, including a win in the summer race in 2023 and a 10th-place finish in last year's Daytona 500. These odds at DraftKings imply a 3.85% chance that Buescher wins on Sunday - I'm all over that.

📊 Daytona 500 odds 2026

Here's a look at the latest odds via Caesars ahead of the 2026 Daytona 500:

🏆 Daytona 500 past winners

Here is a look at the last 10 winners of the Daytona 500:

📺 How to watch the Daytona 500 2026: NASCAR schedule & TV info

Here's a look at the Daytona 500 channel and TV info, along with the full NASCAR schedule this week ahead of the Daytona 500 (including qualifying and duels).

When is the Daytona 500?

• Date: Sunday, Feb. 15, 2026
• Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Daytona International Speedway (Daytona Beach, Fla.)
• TV: FOX

Full Daytona 500 schedule

• Wednesday, Feb. 11 - Daytona 500 practice 1 (10 a.m. ET, FS1)
• Wednesday, Feb. 11 - Daytona 500 qualifying (8:15 p.m. ET, FS1)
• Thursday, Feb. 12 - Daytona Duels Qualifying Race 1 (7 p.m. ET, FS1)
• Thursday, Feb. 12 - Daytona Duels Qualifying Race 2 (8:45 p.m. ET, FS1)
• Friday, Feb. 13 - Daytona 500 practice 2 (5:35 p.m. ET, FS1)
• Saturday, Feb. 14 - Daytona 500 practice 3 (3 p.m. ET, FS1)
• Sunday, Feb. 15 - 2026 Daytona 500 (2:30 p.m. ET, FOX)

💡 How to bet on the Daytona 500

The Daytona 500 is not only the most popular race of the year but also the most treacherous, as drivers compete in a spectacle known for its high speeds and big crashes.

That can lead to some unpredictable results as the "big one" takes out multiple competitors seemingly every year. Other drivers can exceed expectations by taking advantage of the pack racing nature of this superspeedway race, riding the momentum from the field before pulling away late.

That's why long shots tend to do so well at this race with three of the last four winners opening with +3300 odds or longer to win the Great American Race. We'd recommend betting smaller amounts and targeting a handful of drivers to avoid staking too much on any one competitor and stay invested through the end of the race.

❓ Daytona 500 FAQs

Who is favored to win the Daytona 500?

Ryan Blaney is the betting favorite to win the Daytona 500 with odds between +900 and +1000 across the best sports betting apps ahead of this year's race.

What time is the 2026 Daytona 500?

The 2026 Daytona 500 will begin at 2:30 p.m. ET from Daytona International Speedway.

How to watch the 2026 Daytona 500

You can watch the 2026 Daytona 500 on FOX at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Who has won the most Daytona 500s?

Richard Petty won the Daytona 500 seven times, which remains the all-time record. Denny Hamlin's three wins are the most by any active driver.

Has anyone ever won three straight Daytona 500s?

No driver has ever won the Daytona 500 in three consecutive years. William Byron has a chnace to become the first driver to win three straight Daytona 500s this year.