DuraMAX Drydene 400 Prop Picks: Top 5s, Top 10s, and Matchups

DuraMAX Drydene 400 Race prop picks for the NASCAR season. Prop picks for a big payout. SBR - trusted by bettors for over 20 years.

Isaiah Sirois

Last Updated: April 29, 2022 8:45 AM EDT • 5 minute read

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to the concrete banking of Dover Motor Speedway this Sunday. Keep reading for our best DuraMAX Drydene 400 Race prop picks.

This Sunday will mark Dover Motor Speedway’s first event under the Speedway Motorsports banner after the track’s previous owners sold it late last year. The new management hasn’t taken any actions to alter the course, so we’re in for a classic battle on the one-mile concrete oval.

Last year, Alex Bowman got ahead of Kyle Larson on a late-race pit stop and secured the win. Larson will be looking to avenge his defeat, and the talented veteran is the clear betting favorite with odds of only +450. However, other betting markets offer considerably more value, and we’ll break some of those down for you here.

Here are my top prop picks for NASCAR’s DuraMAX Drydene 400 at Dover Motor Speedway in Dover, DE (odds via BetMGM and DraftKings Sportsbook).

DuraMAX Drydene 400 Race Prop Picks

Top 10: Aric Almirola (+250 via DraftKings)Top 5: Alex Bowman (+155 via BetMGM)Martin Truex Jr. (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Ryan Blaney

DuraMAX Drydene 400 Race Prop Predictions

Almirola Top 10 (+250)

This bet is my favorite of the weekend.

Aric Almirola started the 2022 campaign off with three-straight top 10 finishes. He then fell off slightly before finishing a solid 8th at Martinsville two races ago, giving him four top 10s on the year and a 13.5th-place average finish. Almirola ranks sixth in average finish this season, and only nine drivers have more top 10s than him. Of the 15 drivers with at least four top 10s, no driver has odds longer than +175 to score another top 10 result.

Almirola’s odds probably aren’t great because we’re yet to see him spend much time at the front. Although he can pilot his No. 10 Ford to solid results, he doesn’t have the upside that most drivers with a similar average finish do — Almirola is yet to finish better than fifth this season. However, he doesn’t need to dominate to cash this prop. As long as he keeps his car clean, he can easily slide into a top 10 finish.

Almirola has been good at getting those results at Dover in the past. In 2015, he recorded top 5 finishes in both Dover races in Richard Petty’s No. 43, significantly overperforming his equipment in the process. He only owns one top 10 result at Dover since joining Stewart-Haas Racing in 2018, but he owns three top 15s and six top 20s.

The odds of Almirola grabbing another top 10 result at Dover are considerably better than the oddsmakers think. This line sits at +200 on BetMGM, so we’re getting an extra chunk of value by playing the +250 at DraftKings.

Bowman Top 5 (+155)

This line doesn’t offer quite as big of a payout as our Almirola bet, but it does feel a lot more secure.

Alex Bowman has brought his No. 48 Chevrolet home inside the top 5 twice this season, once at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and again at the Circuit of the Americas. He came close to a third top 5 at the Bristol Dirt Race but ultimately finished sixth. Bowman owns six top 10s on the year and has finished no worse than 14th since February.

Hendrick Motorsports famously brought home the 1-2-3-4 finish here last season, with Bowman picking up the win over Larson, Chase Elliott, and William Byron. The NextGen car may make it much more difficult for Hendrick to pull off a similar feat, but the team owns four wins, 12 top 5s, and 22 top 10s on the year. They could easily add a few more to those totals on Sunday.

Bowman has consistently looked great at Dover, as he owns four top 5s in his last six races here. Yet the books are giving him the worst odds of any Hendrick Motorsports driver to record a top 5. At BetMGM, Larson has odds of -175, and both Elliott and Byron are listed at +100.

Bowman has odds of +110 at DraftKings, so it’s surprising to see that BetMGM is listing him at +155. Let’s take the value and pocket some of their money.

Truex (-110) vs. Blaney

I’m very low on Ryan Blaney this weekend. He finished eighth here in his rookie season and is yet to improve on that result. He tied it in 2018, but he has made no progress since. Worse, those two results are Blaney’s only top 10s at Dover.

In contrast, Martin Truex Jr. has been solid at Dover. He got his first-ever Cup Series win here for Dale Earnhardt Inc. back in 2007 after leading a race-high 216 laps. Truex owns three wins, nine top 5s, and 18 top 10s in 31 starts here. He is 8-3 against Blaney in their 11 shared starts here, with two of Blaney’s wins coming by four positions or fewer. Truex has finished at least 10 spots ahead of Blaney here seven times.

Blaney’s struggles here in the Cup Series suggest he should be a plus-money option against a heavily favored Truex, but that isn’t the case here. Instead, we’re getting Truex at near-even odds to best a foe he routinely tops at Dover.

Where to Bet on the DuraMAX Drydene 400

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook Caesars Sportsbook DraftKings Sportsbook PointsBet BetMGM

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DuraMAX Drydene 400 picks made on 4/29/22 at 1:31 p.m. ET

Written by:
Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a Sports Betting Analyst at Sportsbook Review specializing in basketball, motorsports, and football. He uses a wide variety of analytical tools to identify value on event-specific markets, and you can always find his columns stuffed to the brim with data. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA, Olympic, and FIBA markets for Sportsbook Review and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar most weekends. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree from Emory University and is currently attending Vanderbilt Law School.