DuraMAX Drydene 400 Picks and NASCAR Preview: Favorites, Values, and Longshots

It’s on to the “Monster Mile,” in Dover, DE for 400 laps of racing. Will there be another last-lap pass for the win, or will one driver dominate this race as has been the norm here? We break down the DuraMAX 400 with our top NASCAR picks of the week. 

May begins with a trip to Dover Motor Speedway for the DuraMAX Drydene 400. After three straight weeks of short track racing followed by the insanity that was Talladega, this race should allow some room for drivers to catch their breath.  

Over the last few seasons, this race has been somewhat uneventful. In several instances, a single driver will lead a majority of the 400 total laps. Last season, Kyle Larson led 263 laps of this race before Alex Bowman grabbed the lead on a restart of lap 331 last May. The No. 48 did not relinquish that lead and went on to win the race with 98 laps led. 

Based on his success over the past few seasons here, Larson once again finds himself as the favorite to win. Although, he’ll have to overcome a season of disappointing finishes if he wants to win again this year. Despite his win last week, Ross Chastain is buried in the odds a decent stretch away from the field favorites. 

Here are my outright picks for NASCAR’s DuraMAX Drydene 400 at Dover Motor Speedway (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, and FanDuel Sportsbook).

DuraMAX Drydene 400 Odds

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DuraMAX Drydene 400 Odds Analysis

As you look across the books, you will find almost no variation for Larson's odds as the favorite to win. Most of our top-rated U.S. sportsbooks have him at +450 with Caesars Sportsbook as the outlier with odds of +400 for Larson to take home the checkered flag.

Outside of that, most of the other drivers are fairly consistently priced. Most of the past winners such as Denny Hamlin (+1200) and Alex Bowman (+1000) are the same almost everywhere. You can get a little better value on Bowman though if you grab him at +1200 at BetMGM.

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DuraMAX Drydene 400 Picks

Kyle Larson (+450 via DraftKings)Kevin Harvick (+1600 via BetMGM)Austin Cindric (+6000 via FanDuel)

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

Who Will Win the DuraMAX Drydene 400?

Larson (+450)

At this point last season, Larson’s only race win was in Las Vegas. He went on to win nine more that year. Despite leading 263 laps of the 2021 Drydene 400, he finished second to Bowman, his teammate. The No. 48 car jumped into the lead on a late-race restart and held the lead until the finish. Larson led 154 laps in a win at Dover in 2019. 

All told at this track, Larson has made 13 career starts; however, he did not make either of the two races in 2020 due to his suspension. Over the course of his Cup Series career, he has 10 top-10 finishes. Seven of those have been inside the top five, including his spring 2019 win. 

The reigning champ is off to a rocky start by his standards. Despite his win at Auto Club Speedway, he has four finishes between 29th and 34th. That said he’s had three top-five finishes over the last four races including back-to-back fourth-place outings at Bristol and Talladega coming into this week. He’s trending in the right direction for a breakthrough win.

Harvick (+1600)

It’s no secret the No. 4 team has struggled with this NextGen car. So far this season “Happy Harvick,” hasn’t been his winning self. In fact through 10 races, he ha notched only four top-10 finishes. His only top-five outing was a month ago at Richmond Raceway.

This race could be a chance for Kevin Harvick to start a hot streak. He’s on a ridiculous streak in which he has finished inside the top 10 at this track in 10 out of the last 13 races. These include victories in 2015, 2018, and 2020. 

Since joining Stewart Haas Racing in 2014, Harvick has led the more laps at Dover than any active driver with 1,486 circuits in the lead at the Monster Mile.

Cindric (+6000)

True longshot value on this track is hard to find this week. With most of the favored veteran drivers clustered around the top of the chart, digging deep for young talent is the way to go. Cindric’s Cup Series season started in the best way possible as he took home a win at the Daytona 500. Since then, he has fallen on hard times logging only one other finish inside the top 10.  

While Cindric is making his major circuit debut in Delaware, his Xfinity record is impressive enough to take some action at 60-1 this week. The former series champion finished inside the top 10 in each of his seven starts. Last season, he extended his streak of top-three finishes to four races with a win. He offers plenty of value at his current odds if he can find some of that magic this week.

Where to Bet on the DuraMAX 400

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

DuraMAX 400 picks made 4/27/2022 at 7:15 p.m. ET.