Denmark vs. Latvia Olympic Men's Hockey Picks: Danes Given Slight Edge in Qualifying Battle

A couple of teams that are not traditional hockey powers will meet in a qualification round game at the Olympics. Here are our picks for the Denmark-Latvia matchup.

Among the countries in this year’s Olympic hockey tournament, Denmark and Latvia might be the least affected by not having NHL players participate in the Olympics. Most of their rosters are comprised of players that would typically play for their country in the World Championships or other international events.

Denmark has been surprisingly successful through the preliminary round, picking up two wins and a loss. It started with a 2-1 win against Czechia, a game in which the Danes were outshot 40-17. That victory was followed by a 2-0 loss to the ROC before earning a 5-3 win against Switzerland. That leaves Denmark with seven goals for and six goals against. 

Latvia lost all three of its games thus far. It fell 3-2 to Sweden, 3-1 to Finland, and 5-2 against Slovakia. These have been competitive enough showings, but with a 5-11 goal differential.

Not surprisingly, Denmark is favored in this matchup but let’s take a closer look.

Here are my Denmark-Latvia picks and predictions for Monday’s Olympic hockey matchup (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Denmark vs. Latvia Game Info

Date/Time: Monday, Feb. 14, 11:10 p.m. ETTV: nbcolympics.com, Peacock, CBC GemLocation: Wukesong Sports Centre, Beijing, China

Denmark vs. Latvia Odds Analysis

Denmark is favored against Latvia, with prices in the -160 range on the moneyline.

On the puck line, Denmark is favored by 1.5 goals at a price of +185 as well as +190. The underdog Latvia is costly when getting a goal-and-a-half. Latvia is -235 to cover.

Denmark at -0.5 (+104) and Latvia +0.5 (-128) which are more reasonable prices.  

Since neither team has a great offensive track record, expectations are for a low-scoring affair. The total is 4.5, with a wide price range. The Over could be had for -140.

That makes the Under more appealing, with the price at +125, compared to +114.

Denmark vs. Latvia Picks

Denmark -0.5 (+104) ???Under 4.5 (+125) ???

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Denmark vs. Latvia Predictions

Denmark -0.5 (+104)

While Denmark might not be quite as strong as its three-game record in this tournament might suggest, it has some talent that should give it an edge over Latvia.

That includes former NHL players Frans Nielsen, Mikkel Boedker, Peter Regin, and Patrick Russell, as well as a top goaltending tandem with the duo of 34-year-old veteran Sebastian Dahm and 20-year-old Montreal Canadiens prospect Frederik Dichow. Both have played at a high level in the preliminary round.

Denmark’s leading scorer, with two goals and an assist, is Frederik Storm, a 32-year-old who played in Sweden for many years before moving to Germany for the past two campaigns.

It is not as though Latvia is without talent, but it has had a difficult time generating offense. Its leading scorer in the preliminary round was Renars Krastenbergs, a 23-year-old who played junior hockey for the Oshawa Generals in the Ontario Hockey League, before spending a couple of seasons in the ECHL. Rodrigo Abols, Lauris Darzins, and Ronalds Kenins are all veterans of international play, but the lack of firepower could be a problem, even against a Danish team that is not loaded with scorers.

If Latvia is going to pull off the upset, it will likely need a strong performance from goaltender Janis Kalnins, a 30-year-old who had been a quality starter in the KHL for five seasons before moving to the Swedish League this season. Kalnins has a .887 save percentage in 17 games for Vaxjo in Sweden and has stopped 63 of 70 shots in two games at the Olympics.

Under 4.5 (+125)

Neither team generates a lot of offense, and this might be where the lack of NHL talent shows the most because these are nations that don’t have the same kind of depth of talent as the traditional powers. When a few NHL players are removed from the lineup, it can be difficult to produce goals.

In the 2021 World Championships, Latvia had a total of 31 goals in its seven games, 4.43 per game, so it earns the expectation of a low-scoring result. Denmark had a total of 28 goals in seven games at the World Championships, an average of 4.00 per game. As ridiculously low as this total seems, I’m still leaning to the Under. 

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Denmark-Latvia picks made 2/14/2022 at 12:12 pm. ET.