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NASCAR Cup Series driver Denny Hamlin (11) celebrates as we offer our best Cook Out 400 predictions and expert picks for Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series race at Richmond Raceway.
NASCAR Cup Series driver Denny Hamlin (11) celebrates after winning the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway. Photo by Peter Casey / USA TODAY Sports via Imagn.

Three weeks after the last Cup Series race at Indianapolis, Christopher Bell is the favorite to win Sunday's summer race at Richmond Raceway (6 p.m. ET) as we offer our Cook Out 400 predictions and expert picks.

Bell is the favorite across our best sports betting sites over teammates Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin, while Kyle Larson - the favorite by the latest NASCAR Cup Series championship odds - is the only other driver with odds shorter than +1000 to win this season's second race at Richmond.

2024 Cook Out 400 odds at Richmond Raceway

(Odds via our best sports betting apps as of Saturday at 11:30 a.m. ET. | 🔥 = best odds | ❄️ = worst odds)

DriverDraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Christopher Bell+400 ❄️+550 🔥+475+450+450
Martin Truex Jr.+500+600+550+600+500
Kyle Larson+550+750 🔥+525 ❄️+650+600
Denny Hamlin+550+600 🔥+475 ❄️+550+500
William Byron+1100 ❄️+1900 🔥+1400+1800+1400
Chase Elliott+1100+1400 🔥+1200+1000 ❄️+1200
Joey Logano+1200+1200+1200+1200+1000 ❄️
Ryan Blaney+1400+1400+1200+1000 ❄️+1100
Brad Keselowski+1600+1600+1600+1600+1600
Chris Buescher+1800+2400 🔥+1800+1800+1600 ❄️
Tyler Reddick+2000 🔥+1700+1600+1500 ❄️+1800
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Richmond Raceway track analysis

This is the last short track on the regular season schedule for the Cup Series, and it's one that Sunday's drivers know quite well.

This 0.75-mile oval has held two races annually since 1958, and the "Action Track" routinely lives up to its name with high-speed straightaways and tight corners on its D-shaped circuit. It's no wonder that we've seen nine different winners in the last nine races at this track.

This weekend's race will feature a unique twist with NASCAR offering two different tires to use: a baseline "prime" tire for long runs and an "option" tire with better grip but more extreme fall-off. That adds even more intrigue to what should be an entertaining race on Sunday.

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Weather forecast for Richmond Raceway on Sunday

NASCAR hasn't had the best of luck with weather recently, but it should escape the wrath of Mother Nature this weekend at Richmond Raceway.

Some areas in central Virginia were hit with rain, flooding, and extreme winds from Tropical Storm Debby, but the eye of the storm has since moved out of the region and shouldn't impact the events of this weekend in Richmond.

Sunday's forecast from AccuWeather.com expects a 15% chance of rain with a 2% chance of thunderstorms at Richmond Raceway, with a high of 86 degrees in the afternoon and a low of 66 degrees in the evening.

Cook Out 400 predictions, race preview

Picks made Saturday at 1 p.m. ET prior to practice or qualifying. Odds listed below may vary from the latest prices above.

Because NASCAR has held two oval races here every year for decades, we have plenty of data to predict Sunday's short track race. And it all points to another win for Toyota (+105) and particularly Joe Gibbs Racing, which has won five of seven short-track races this season and boasts three of four favorites entering qualifying.

If you've been following our picks this season, you know how we feel about Christopher Bell (+550), who has been the fastest car on the track for most of the season. He's finished in the top four in four of his seven Richmond races with JGR, though he'll be without his regular crew chief on Sunday and has yet to win at this track.

Instead, we like another driver from Joe Gibbs Racing to take the checkered flag on Sunday.

Denny Hamlin the best bet at Richmond

If I'm betting one driver this weekend at short odds, I'd rather back Denny Hamlin (+600), who has been a model of consistency at his home track. The Virginia native earned his fifth career win at Richmond back in March - the second-most among active drivers - and has finished in the top six in 14 of his last 17 races here.

He's also finished in the top two in four of his last seven at Richmond, and I'm surprised he isn't the outright favorite.

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That marked the 10th win in the last 17 races at Richmond for Joe Gibbs Racing, which is dealing as short as -130 across our best sportsbooks to win this weekend's race. That makes these +105 odds on a Toyota win - which includes all four JGR drivers and four others - all the more appealing ahead of raceday.

I particularly like Hamlin because the tire strategy for this race should cater to veterans who understand how to manage long runs with high-wear tires. That's why I'm eyeing another veteran driver as my best bet among non-Toyota drivers.

Target Joey Logano beyond Toyota drivers

Joey Logano (+1200) has won twice at Richmond, and he might be the best equipped in the entire field to handle the tire strategy on Sunday.

The two-time Cup Series champion led 199 of 200 laps to win year's All-Star race, which marked NASCAR's first foray with the option tires. He's also finished in the top five in 12 of his last 20 races at Richmond with two wins at this track (2014, 2017), and he led 222 laps in the spring race two years ago before finishing sixth.

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Don't sleep on Ty Gibbs as long shot

This isn't typically the race to bet long shots, though I still have my eyes on Ty Gibbs (+2500) - the only JGR driver with odds longer than +600. He's clearly a step (or three) behind those other guys, but he's led laps in three of his last four races and is knocking on the door of a playoff spot with four weeks to go.

With the option tires presenting a new strategy option for teams, don't be surprised to see JGR take an aggressive approach with its most assertive driver, who could sure use a win to lock in a spot in the postseason.

Cook Out 400 expert picks to win at Richmond Raceway

NASCAR picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best sports betting apps.

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Cook Out 400 props, best bets for Richmond summer race

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Past Cook Out 400 winners at Richmond

YearDriverTeam
2023Chris BuescherRFK Racing
2022Kevin HarvickStewart-Haas Racing
2021Martin Truex Jr.Joe Gibbs Racing
2020Brad KeselowskiTeam Penske
2019Martin Truex Jr.Joe Gibbs Racing
2018Kyle BuschJoe Gibbs Racing
2017Kyle LarsonChip Ganassi Racing
2016Denny HamlinJoe Gibbs Racing
2015Matt KensethJoe Gibbs Racing
2014Brad KeselowskiTeam Penske

How to watch Cook Out 400 at Richmond Raceway

  • Date: Sunday, Aug. 11 at 6 p.m. ET
  • Track: Richmond Raceway (Richmond, Va.)
  • Length: 0.75 miles (400 laps, 300 total miles)
  • How to watch: USA Network
  • Defending winner: Chris Buescher
  • Favorite: Christopher Bell (+550 via FanDuel)

Here are our best sports betting apps:

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