🏎️ Chinese Grand Prix Props, Predictions & Best Bets: Can Hamilton Keep Returning to Form?
There's a looming question one race into the new F1 season as I make my Chinese Grand Prix props: Who can slow down a high-flying Mercedes team?
Mercedes locked out the top two spots on the podium in Australia. Now George Russell is the pole-sitter for the sprint race ahead of the grand prix this weekend, with his teammate Kimi Antonelli beside him.
Ferrari seems to be up to the challenge, and I'm backing one of their drivers in my Chinese Grand Prix prop predictions.
The lights go out at 3 a.m. ET on Sunday from Shanghai International Circuit (ESPN).
🏎️ Best Chinese Grand Prix Props: F1 picks for March 15
See our experts' picks based on odds from the best F1 betting sites; Rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value. Picks made before the sprint race and qualifying.
| Driver | Prop bet | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Hamilton | Podium finish (+125 via bet365) | 0.75u -> 0.94u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Esteban Ocon | Points finish (+160 via DraftKings) | 1 -> 1.6u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Pierre Gasly | Winner without Red Bull, McLaren, Mercedes, Ferrari, and Aston Martin (+225 via DraftKings) | 0.75 -> 1.7u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 2.50 units | Max profit: 4.24 units
💰 Best Chinese Grand Prix prop bet
Lewis Hamilton podium finish (+125)
Lewis Hamilton could be returning to his usual form after an adjustment period with Ferrari.
Ferrari looks imposing, as we saw when Hamilton's teammate Charles Leclerc was battling the two mighty Mercedes cars in the Australian Grand Prix. He finished on the podium in third, but Hamilton was only just over a half-second behind in fourth.
Hamilton may again be primarily racing his teammate for the podium, and he outdid Leclerc in qualifying for the sprint race. He sits fourth with Leclerc in seventh, and both will get an added boost from Ferrari's new rear wing innovation.
🏁 Can Russell keep dominating?
Our Gary Pearson is rolling with George Russell to win in his Chinese Grand Prix expert picks
🔥 More Chinese Grand Prix prop picks
Esteban Ocon points finish (+190)
Oliver Bearman is the more eye-catching Haas driver right now after surprisingly grabbing ninth in sprint qualifying. But Esteban Ocon doesn't sit too far back in 12th, showing Haas may be packing some pace early, and especially at the Shanghai International Circuit.
Ocon is the more experienced driver, and he only narrowly missed out on a points finish in Australia while ending up 11th. He finished in the points nine times last year, including a fifth place in China, his best result of the season.
There's a highly plausible scenario in which Haas continues to rise early and places both drivers in the top 10, with Bearman pulling Ocon along. The odds reflect that too, with Ocon listed as short as +130 through FanDuel for a points finish, while Bearman is getting -225 at DraftKings.
Pierre Gasly winner without Red Bull, McLaren, Mercedes, Ferrari, and Aston Martin (+225)
The "winner without" markets are effectively asking this question: Which mid-tier driver is best-positioned for success? The answer on Sunday is easy: Pierre Gasly.
Alpine struggled immensely last season, but the early returns are promising after Gasly was able to snag the last points position in Australia, finishing 10th. And now he's impressed early in China and will start seventh in the sprint race, just behind the Ferrari of Leclerc, and ahead of even Max Verstappen in his Red Bull.
That comes after Gasly remained productive last year too, even as his team was limping along. He finished in the points five times, which sounds unspectacular until you remember he received little help, with Alpine ending up a distant dead last in the constructors' standings on 22 points. Kick Sauber was second-last at 70.
💡 How I'm betting the Chinese Grand Prix
We're also looking at the F1 odds at prediction markets and our Chinese Grand Prix predictions.
Some of the best sports betting sites offer "winner without" markets. It feels like a cheat code, but it's a way to bring other drivers into play in a sport that the same handful of teams often dominate at the top.
I'm taking advantage of Draftkings' offering while it lasts and suggest you do the same, as beyond the blazing speed of Mercedes, we could see at least a little more parity than in past years on the F1 grid following the changes to the rules and cars.
Elsewhere, while I feel confident in Hamilton, his margin for error to finish on the podium is narrow. The two Mercedes cars are soaring, which could leave just one podium spot for him to claw for again. That's why I'm not quite going to a full unit on him.
Similarly, while I believe in Gasly, I'll need to see more from Alpine before trusting both driver and team with a full-unit investment.
📖 How should you bet F1 in 2026?
We dove deeper into all the rule changes and car modifications for this season while looking at how to bet F1 in 2026.
📊 Chinese Grand Prix odds 2026
Chinese Grand Prix odds to win Sunday's race via BetMGM. Updated on Friday, March 12.
| Driver | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| George Russell | -250 | 71.43% | $4.00 |
| Kimi Antonelli | +350 | 22.22% | $35 |
| Charles Leclerc | +1200 | 7.69% | $120 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Lando Norris | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Oscar Piastri | +2000 | 4.76% | $200 |
| Max Verstappen | +2800 | 3.45% | $280 |
| Isack Hadjar | +15000 | 0.66% | $1,500 |
| Oliver Bearman | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Pierre Gasly | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Esteban Ocon | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | +75000 | 0.13% | $7,500 |
| Arvid Lindblad | +75000 | 0.13% | $7,500 |
| Liam Lawson | +75000 | 0.13% | $7,500 |
| Nico Hülkenberg | +75000 | 0.13% | $7,500 |
| Franco Colapinto | +250000 | 0.04% | $25,000 |
| Alexander Albon | +300000 | 0.03% | $30,000 |
| Carlos Sainz Jr. | +300000 | 0.03% | $30,000 |
| Fernando Alonso | +300000 | 0.03% | $30,000 |
| Lance Stroll | +300000 | 0.03% | $30,000 |
| Sergio Perez | +300000 | 0.03% | $30,000 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +300000 | 0.03% | $30,000 |
📺 How to watch 2026 Chinese Grand Prix
- Date: Sunday, March 15
- Time: 3 a.m. ET
- Location: Shanghai International Circuit (Shanghai, China)
- How to watch: ESPN
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