🏎️ Chinese Grand Prix Predictions, Odds 2026: Expert Picks for Sunday's Race in Shanghai
Ferrari will continue its pursuit of a strong Mercedes team on Sunday during the second race of a new F1 season as I make my Chinese Grand Prix predictions.
I'm backing George Russell to secure his second straight victory. He continues to dominate early and won the sprint race, though he'll start second on Sunday after qualifying just behind his also soaring teammate Kimi Antonelli.
Russell is now the -167 betting favorite for Sunday's race at Shanghai International Circuit, which starts at 3 a.m. ET (ESPN).
π Chinese Grand Prix odds 2026
Chinese Grand Prix odds to win Sunday's race via BetMGM. Updated on Saturday, March 13.
| Driver | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| George Russell | -167 | 62.50% | $6.00 |
| Kimi Antonelli | +225 | 30.77% | $22.50 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +800 | 11.11% | $80 |
| Charles Leclerc | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| Lando Norris | +5000 | 1.96% | $500 |
| Oscar Piastri | +5000 | 1.96% | $500 |
| Max Verstappen | +6600 | 1.49% | $660 |
| Isack Hadjar | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Pierre Gasly | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Oliver Bearman | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +100000 | 0.10% | $10,000 |
| Nico HΓΌlkenberg | +100000 | 0.10% | $10,000 |
| Arvid Lindblad | +150000 | 0.07% | $15,000 |
| Liam Lawson | +150000 | 0.07% | $15,000 |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | +200000 | 0.05% | $20,000 |
| Franco Colapinto | +200000 | 0.05% | $20,000 |
| Alexander Albon | +300000 | 0.03% | $30,000 |
| Carlos Sainz | +300000 | 0.03% | $30,000 |
| Fernando Alonso | +300000 | 0.03% | $30,000 |
| Lance Stroll | +300000 | 0.03% | $30,000 |
| Sergio Perez | +300000 | 0.03% | $30,000 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +300000 | 0.03% | $30,000 |
π’ Chinese Grand Prix odds movement
There was significant odds movement after the sprint race, and following Antonelli becoming the pole-sitter. The odds for pretty much everyone who doesn't driven a Ferrari or Mercedes lengthened considerably.
| Driver | Odds movement |
|---|---|
| George Russell | -250 to -167 |
| Kimi Antonelli | +350 to +225 |
| Charles Leclerc | +1200 to +1000 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +1200 + 800 |
| Max Verstappen | +2800 to +6600 |
| Lando Norris | +1600 to +5000 |
| Oscar Piastri | +2000 to +5000 |
π° Chinese Grand Prix predictions, best bets
All bets made before the first practice session, sprint race, and qualifying.
| Bet | Odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| To win race: George Russell, Mercedes | -118 via BetMGM | 1u -> 0.85u | βββββ |
| Top 3 finish: Charles Leclerc, Ferrari | -140 via BetMGM | 1u -> .71u | ββββ |
| Long shot pick: Lando Norris | +2700 via FanDuel | .1u -> 3.7u | ββ |
Total wagered: 2.1 units | Max profit: 5.26 units
π Pick to win Chinese Grand Prix: George Russell
I backed Russell to win in Australia with a 3-star pick, and I'm going back to the Mercedes driver after his demonstrative, comfortable victory in the season opener, this time with 5 stars of confidence.
Russell and his W17 were the class of Down Under. Before the season started, Mercedes was touted as having the best car in the field. That proved true and then some. After the first few laps, the Australian GP was never in question for Russell, who cruised to the win.
Teammate Kimi Antonelli took second place, with Russell finishing almost 16 seconds faster than third-place Charles Leclerc. I'm also taking Russell in my Chinese Grand Prix expert picks.
π₯ Top 3 finish at Chinese Grand Prix: Charles Leclerc
Sure, Ferrari made a mistake in missing the opportune moment for their first pitstop, but even a timely first stop wouldn't have been enough for Leclerc to beat the Mercedes duo.
That said, Leclerc was a dominant third-place finisher. While he finished less than a second in front of teammate Lewis Hamilton, third place for the Monegasques felt assured from the early stages of the race.
As expected, Ferrari has the discernible advantage out of the starting gate, which I discussed in my F1 odds at prediction markets. Until the other teams adapt, I'm happy backing Leclerc to finish on the podium despite the short odds.
It'll also be interesting to see the impact of Ferrari's rear-wing innovation the team is rolling out this weekend designed to take advantage of the new regulations. The intention is to reduce drag even further on the straights.
🏁 Flying Ferrari
Sean Tomlinson is eyeing Lewis Hamilton in his Chinese Grand Prix props.
π― Best long shot Chinese Grand Prix pick: Lando Norris
There's no way around it. McLaren is no longer the big boy on campus, with their car visibly lagging behind Ferrari and Mercedes. Despite the notable disadvantage, Norris managed a fifth-place finish in Melbourne.
So, he was, by all intents and purposes, the best of the rest. Max Verstappen will likely be better positioned on the starting grid in China, making Norris' quest for first place even more complicated.
That's why this play is only a 2-star pick, as I don't believe the car is good enough for him to get the better of pace-setters Mercedes and Ferrari.
However, the defending champion still represents the best long-shot play. And he might have a chance, considering Shanghai International Circuit is the fourth-slowest on the circuit.
π‘ How I'm betting Chinese Grand Prix
I've increased my investment in the first two picks from a half to a full unit. My confidence level is markedly higher after watching Mercedes take first and second like it was a leisurely Sunday mosey on their local motorway.
They raced flawlessly, which helps. But it's clear the vehicle is notably superior to the rest of the field, including Ferrari, which poses the biggest threat to Mercedes' projected early-season dominance.
I'm not confident in the long-shot pick; hence, the .1-unit investment. Until McLaren can bridge the gap, it could be a while before last year's champions win a race.
💡 How to bet on F1
Our Sean Tomlinson digs into how to bet on the F1 in 2026, providing insight you won't want to miss.
βοΈ Will the weather impact Chinese Grand Prix?
At the time of writing, there is only an 18% chance of rain for the Chinese Grand Prix, with winds gusting to 20 mph and a temperature of about 56 degrees.
We'll update the forecast to ensure the updated projections.
π’ Chinese Grand Prix starting grid
It's yet another Mercedes front-row lockout, this time with Antonelli leading the way. However, Lewis Hamilton continues his return to form during his second season with Ferrari, and he looks poised to challenge, along with his teammate Leclerc.
| Position | Driver |
|---|---|
| 1 | Kimi Antonelli |
| 2 | George Russell |
| 3 | Lewis Hamilton |
| 4 | Charles Leclerc |
| 5 | Oscar Piastri |
| 6 | Lando Norris |
| 7 | Pierre Gasly |
| 8 | Max Verstappen |
| 9 | Isack Hadjar |
| 10 | Oliver Bearman |
| 11 | Nico Hulkenberg |
| 12 | Franco Colapinto |
| 13 | Esteban Ocon |
| 14 | Liam Lawson |
| 15 | Arvid Lindblad |
| 16 | Gabriel Bortoleto |
| 17 | Carlos Sainz |
| 18 | Alexander Albon |
| 19 | Fernando Alonso |
| 20 | Valtteri Bottas |
| 21 | Lance Stroll |
| 22 | Sergio Perez |
π Past Chinese Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren-Mercedes |
| 2024 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT |
| 2023 | Cancelled due to COVID-19 pandemic | |
| 2022 | Cancelled due to COVID-19 pandemic | |
| 2021 | Cancelled due to COVID-19 pandemic | |
| 2020 | Cancelled due to COVID-19 pandemic | |
| 2019 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2018 | Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer |
| 2017 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2016 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes |
| 2015 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
πΊ How to watch 2026 Chinese Grand Prix
- Date: Sunday, March 15
- Time: 3 a.m. ET
- Location: Shanghai International Circuit (Shanghai, China)
- How to watch: ESPN
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