🏎️ Chinese Grand Prix Odds, Expert Picks 2026: Best Bets for Shanghai International Circuit
It's on to Shanghai for Sunday's second race of the F1 season (3 a.m. ET, ESPN), and I'm backing George Russell for the second straight week in my Chinese Grand Prix expert picks.
Russell, the -118 betting favorite, was the talk of the town in Melbourne, beating everyone but teammate Kimi Antonelli by over 15 seconds. As Shanghai International Circuit is the fourth-slowest track on the grid, the race should be closer. Still, Russell's new W17 appears notably superior to all other cars. I'm also featuring Charles Leclerc after his podium finish Down Under.
📊 Chinese Grand Prix odds 2026
Chinese Grand Prix odds to win Sunday's race via BetMGM.
| Driver | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| George Russell | -118 | 54.13% | $8.47 |
| Kimi Antonelli | +500 | 16.67% | $50 |
| Charles Leclerc | +600 | 14.29% | $60 |
| Max Verstappen | +700 | 12.5% | $70 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +800 | 11.1% | $80 |
| Lando Norris | +2500 | 3.9% | $250 |
| Oscar Piastri | +2500 | 3.9% | $250 |
| Isack Hadjar | +4000 | 2.4% | $400 |
| Oliver Bearman | +25000 | 0.4% | $2,500 |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | +25000 | 0.4% | $2,500 |
| Arvid Lindblad | +25000 | 0.4% | $2,500 |
| Liam Lawson | +25000 | 0.4% | $2,500 |
| Esteban Ocon | +40000 | 0.3% | $4,000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +40000 | 0.3% | $4,000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +40000 | 0.3% | $4,000 |
| Alex Albon | +50000 | 0.2% | $5,000 |
| Carlos Sainz | +50000 | 0.2% | $5,000 |
| Fernando Alonso | +75000 | 0.1% | $7,500 |
| Franco Colapinto | +75000 | 0.1% | $7,500 |
| Lance Stroll | +150000 | 0.07% | $15,000 |
| Sergio Perez | +150000 | 0.07% | $15,000 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +150000 | 0.07% | $15,000 |
🇨🇳 Chinese Grand Prix quick picks summary
Not only do the Chinese Grand Prix odds favor Russell, but I do, too: He's my pick to win Sunday's Chinese GP.
- Race winner: George Russell, Mercedes (-118)
- Podium finish: Charles Leclerc, Ferrari (-140)
- Long-shot pick: Lando Norris, McLaren (+2700)
💰 Chinese Grand Prix predictions, best bets
| Bet | Odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| To win race: George Russell, Mercedes | -118 via BetMGM | 1u -> 0.85u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Top 3 finish: Charles Leclerc, Ferrari | -140 via BetMGM | 1u -> .71u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Long shot pick: Lando Norris | +2700 via FanDuel | .1u -> 3.7u | ⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 2.1 units | Max profit: 5.26 units
🏆 Pick to win Chinese Grand Prix: George Russell
I backed Russell to win in Australia with a 3-star pick, and I'm going back to the Mercedes driver after his demonstrative, comfortable victory in the season opener, this time with 5 stars of confidence.
Russell and his W17 were the class of Down Under. Before the season started, Mercedes was touted as having the best car in the field. That proved true and then some. After the first few laps, the Australian GP was never in question for Russell, who cruised to the win.
Teammate Kimi Antonelli took second place, with Russell finishing almost 16 seconds faster than third-place Charles Leclerc.
🥉 Top 3 finish at Chinese Grand Prix: Charles Leclerc
Sure, Ferrari made a mistake in missing the opportune moment for their first pitstop, but even a timely first stop wouldn't have been enough for Leclerc to beat the Mercedes duo.
That said, Leclerc was a dominant third-place finisher. While he finished less than a second in front of teammate Lewis Hamilton, third place for the Monegasques felt assured from the early stages of the race.
As expected, Ferrari has the discernible advantage out of the starting gate, which I discussed in my F1 odds at prediction markets. Until the other teams adapt, I'm happy backing Leclerc to finish on the podium despite the short odds.
🎯 Best long shot Chinese Grand Prix pick: Lando Norris
There's no way around it. McLaren is no longer the big boy on campus, with their car visibly lagging behind Ferrari and Mercedes. Despite the notable disadvantage, Norris managed a fifth-place finish in Melbourne.
So, he was, by all intents and purposes, the best of the rest. Max Verstappen will likely be better positioned on the starting grid in China, making Norris' quest for first place even more complicated.
That's why this play is only a 2-star pick, as I don't believe the car is good enough for him to get the better of pace-setters Mercedes and Ferrari.
However, the defending champion still represents the best long-shot play. And he might have a chance, considering Shanghai International Circuit is the fourth-slowest on the circuit.
💡 How I'm betting Chinese Grand Prix
I've increased my investment in the first two picks from a half to a full unit. My confidence level is markedly higher after watching Mercedes take first and second like it was a leisurely Sunday mosey on their local motorway.
They raced flawlessly, which helps. But it's clear the vehicle is notably superior to the rest of the field, including Ferrari, which poses the biggest threat to Mercedes' projected early-season dominance.
I'm not confident in the long-shot pick; hence, the .1-unit investment. Until McLaren can bridge the gap, it could be a while before last year's champions win a race.
💡 How to bet on F1
Our Sean Tomlinson digs into how to bet on the F1 in 2026, providing insight you won't want to miss.
🏆 Past Chinese Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren-Mercedes |
| 2024 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT |
| 2023 | Cancelled due to COVID-19 pandemic | |
| 2022 | Cancelled due to COVID-19 pandemic | |
| 2021 | Cancelled due to COVID-19 pandemic | |
| 2020 | Cancelled due to COVID-19 pandemic | |
| 2019 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2018 | Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull Racing-TAG Heuer |
| 2017 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2016 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes |
| 2015 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
🗓️ 2026 Chinese Grand Prix schedule
- Practice 1: Thursday, March 12 (11:30 p.m. ET)
- Sprint qualifying: Friday, March 13 (3:30 a.m. ET)
- Sprint race: Friday, March 13 (11 p.m. ET)
- Qualifying: Saturday, March 14 (3 a.m. ET)
- Race: Sunday, March 15 (3 a.m. ET)
📺 How to watch 2026 Chinese Grand Prix
- Date: Sunday, March 15
- Time: 3 a.m. ET
- Location: Shanghai International Circuit (Shanghai, China)
- How to watch: ESPN
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