Lions vs. Stampeders Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks Today: CFL Week 16
The BC Lions and Calgary Stampeders meet for the first time this season tonight at 9:30 p.m. ET (TSN, CFL+) from McMahon Stadium in Calgary. My Lions vs. Stampeders prediction expects Calgary to lean on its run game to cover as a 4.5-point betting favorite at home against BC.
My CFL picks for this West Division matchup also include a player prop focused on Calgary star QB Vernon Adams Jr.
🏈 Lions vs. Stampeders prediction
CFL odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Stampeders (-215 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
- Against the spread pick: Stampeders -4.5 (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 55.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
📝 Lions vs. Stampeders best bet
🐎 Stampeders -4.5 (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
After Calgary suffered just its second loss since the start of July in Week 14, it spent last week on a bye, getting healthy and preparing to take on the Lions for the first time this season. While BC is coming off a win against the Ottawa Redblacks, this is a tough matchup for QB Nathan Rourke and Co.
The Stampeders are among the Grey Cup odds favorites and have one of the league's best defenses. Calgary is allowing the fewest points per game in the league (20.4) and the third-fewest yards per game (359.2). Led by its fierce defense and physical running game, the Stamps have the second-best ATS record in the league (7-5).
Meanwhile, the Lions have found themselves in the opposite situation, dropping games they should win because of a defense that's giving up 29.6 points per game. BC is 1-5 ATS this season against teams with at least six wins. If the Lions fail to cover again, a $10 bet on Calgary pays an $8.70 profit.
💰 Best Lions vs. Stampeders player prop bet
⬇️ Vernon Adams Jr. Under 290.5 passing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Yes, I'm backing Calgary to win and expect Adams to continue playing efficient football, but the line on his passing yards at FanDuel is way too high. Maybe it's because he's one of the CFL Most Outstanding Player odds favorites, or because the Lions' defense gives up a lot of points, but this doesn't make a ton of sense.
The Lions are a team that consistently gets gashed on the ground, allowing the third-most rushing yards per game in the league (106.4), but rarely gets torched through the air, holding opponents to the fewest passing yards per game (251.5). Plus, the Stamps want to use their run game with Dedrick Mills - Calgary is second in the league in rushing yards per game (115.6)
Adams has thrown for Over 290.5 passing yards only three times in 11 games this season, including just once in his last five. If the Stamps lean on their run game and play with a lead as expected, Adams should cash this Under and turn a $10 bet into an $8.70 profit.
📊 Lions vs. Stampeders odds: Week 16
CFL odds update live in real time.
📈 Lions vs. Stampeders betting odds analysis
The Stampeders opened as a 4.5 to 5.5-point betting favorite at home against the Lions, and the line has seen minimal movement at our best sports betting sites. While the Lions are coming off a win, and the Stamps lost ahead of their bye week last week, I can't see that line shifting much by kickoff tonight.
Given BC's defensive problems, I'd still bet Calgary to cover if this line gets to -6.5.
🔢 Lions vs. Stampeders stats
Season stats courtesy of CFL.ca.
| Lions (6-7) | Statistic (per game) | Stampeders (8-4) |
|---|---|---|
| 29.1 | Points | 26.7 |
| 29.6 | Points allowed | 20.4 |
| 314.9 | Passing yards | 253.7 |
| 108.1 | Rushing yards | 115.6 |
| 251.5 | Passing yards allowed | 252.2 |
| 106.4 | Rushing yards allowed | 107.1 |
🚑 Lions vs. Stampeders injury report
Courtesy of the CFL Week 16 injury report.
| Lions | Stampeders |
|---|---|
| Dejon Allen, OL (arm - out) | Malik Henry, WR (knee - out) |
| James Butler, RB (thigh - questionable) | Folarin Orimolade, DL (achilles - out) |
| Jevon Cottoy, WR (ankle - questionable) | Jalen Philpot, WR (foot - questionable) |
| Garry Peters, DB (knee - questionable) |
📺 Lions vs. Stampeders game info
- When: Friday, Sept. 19
- Kickoff: 9:30 p.m. ET
- Where: McMahon Stadium (Calgary, Alberta)
- How to watch: TSN, CFL+
❓ Lions vs. Stampeders FAQs
Who is favored to win Lions vs. Stampeders?
The Stampeders are a -215 moneyline favorite against the Lions.
What is the spread for Lions vs. Stampeders?
The Stampeders are a 4.5-point betting favorite against the Lions.
What is the Over/Under for Lions vs. Stampeders?
The Over/Under for Lions vs. Stampeders is set at 55.5.
What are the best bets for Lions vs. Stampeders?
The best bets for Lions vs. Stampeders are Calgary to cover as a 4.5-point betting favorite and Vernon Adams Jr. Under 290.5 passing yards (-114).
When is the Lions vs. Stampeders game?
The Lions vs. Stampeders game is scheduled for Friday, Sept. 19, at 9:30 p.m. ET (TSN, CFL+) from McMahon Stadium in Calgary, Alberta.
How do CFL odds work?
When betting on the CFL, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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