🏎️ Australian Grand Prix Winner Predictions & Odds: Can George Russell Deliver?
An off-season with more changes than moods of a toddler has everyone wondering what to expect at the Australian Grand Prix, the opening race of the 2026 F1 season.
I'm diving into my two best bets as I detail the Australian Grand Prix odds and winner predictions. Mercedes' George Russell is the betting favorite, with the Brit trading just ahead of the venerable Max Verstappen and the pair of Ferrari drivers, who are expected to benefit from their team's purported starting-procedure mastery.
Saturday's race starts at 11 p.m. ET from Albert Park in Melbourne (ESPN).
📊 Australian Grand Prix odds 2026
Latest Australian Grand Prix odds to win Sunday's race via BetMGM.
| Driver | Odds | Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| George Russell | +225 | 30.77% | $22.50 |
| Max Verstappen | +333 | 23.09% | $33.30 |
| Charles Leclerc | +400 | 20% | $40 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +600 | 14.29% | $60 |
| Kimi Antonelli | +700 | 11.11% | $70 |
| Lando Norris | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| Oscar Piastri | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| Isack Hadjar | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +12500 | 0.79% | $1,250 |
| Oliver Bearman | +20000 | 0.50% | $2,000 |
| Carlos Sainz Jr. | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Alexander Albon | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Liam Lawson | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Arvid Lindblad | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Esteban Ocon | +30000 | 0.33% | $3,000 |
| Franco Colapinto | +40000 | 0.25% | $4,000 |
| Fernando Alonso | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +75000 | 0.13% | $7,500 |
| Lance Stroll | +100000 | 0.1% | $10,000 |
| Sergio Perez | +100000 | 0.1% | $10,000 |
🏎️ Australian Grand Prix bets summary
- Australian Grand Prix bet to win: George Russell (+225 via BetMGM)
- Investment: 0.5 units -> 1.13 units
- Australian Grand Prix best value bet: Lando Norris (+1000 via BetMGM)
- Investment: 0.2 units -> 2 units
🏆 Australian Grand Prix prediction to win: George Russell
I'm on board the Mercedes hype train until I get to see some action in the flesh. Russell enters the season as the F1 odds favorite at the best sports betting sites.
Mercedes is expected to come flying out of the starting gate, both figuratively and in Melbourne for the season opener.
With wholesale changes implemented, which I covered alongside the F1 odds at prediction markets, McLaren's advantage from last season has been wiped away like a felt on a whiteboard.
How did Russell do at last season's Australian Grand Prix?
Mercedes is expected to benefit most, showcasing what many believe will be the most advanced and high-performing car. Not only is Mercedes expected to have the best car, but they have Russell, one of the most experienced and consistent drivers.
He finished last season's Australian GP in third place with an inferior car. If Mercedes does have the car many expect, Russell's composed driving will take care of the rest.
Among other bets, I also picked Russell to win in my Australian Grand Prix predictions.
💡 How to bet on F1
With so many changes afoot, Sean Tomlinson offers analysis about how to bet on F1 in 2026.
🏁 Australian Grand Prix best value bet: Lando Norris
So, McLaren isn't the It thing anymore, hey? Considering we haven't yet seen one Grand Prix practice session, it's a wee bit early to be condemning the reigning champion.
Not only did Norris secure his first drivers' championship, but he also won in Melbourne, getting his winning season off to a perfect start.
Surely, McLaren hasn't fallen as far behind as some suggest. Papaya might not have the decisive performance advantage it had to start last season, but I'll take the defending champion at +1000 odds any day, especially with so little evidence to go on.
💡How I'm handicapping Australian Grand Prix
Cautiously, very cautiously. It may be the antithesis of how F1 drivers live their lives, but there's simply not enough to go on at this inchoate stage.
If it were a status quo off-season, I wouldn't be investing just 0.7 units (each unit is $10) on the season opener.
However, with more changes afoot than somebody going through their teenage years deals with, I'm waiting for actual racing, some concrete evidence, before sinking my proverbial teeth.
🏆 Past Australian Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Lando Norris | McLaren-Mercedes |
| 2024 | Carlos Sainz Jr. | Ferrari |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT |
| 2022 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari |
| 2021 | Cancelled due to COVID-19 pandemic | |
| 2020 | Cancelled due to COVID-19 pandemic | |
| 2019 | Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes |
| 2018 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari |
| 2017 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari |
| 2016 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes |
| 2015 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
🗓️ 2026 Australian Grand Prix schedule
- Practice 1: Thursday, March 5 (8:30 p.m. ET)
- Practice 2: Friday, March 6 (midnight ET)
- Practice 3: Friday, March 6 (8:30 p.m. ET)
- Qualifying: Saturday, March 7 (midnight ET)
- Race: Saturday, March 7 (11 p.m. ET)
📺 How to watch 2026 Australian Grand Prix
- Date: Saturday, March 7
- Time: 11 p.m. ET
- Location: Albert Park (Melbourne, Australia)
- How to watch: ESPN
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