Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina Predictions: Advantage Rybakina in Hard Court Final

World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka is appearing in her fourth consecutive Australian Open final (second only to Martina Hingis), but No. 5 seed and former finalist Elena Rybakina looks to pull the upset and win her second career major. This is a rematch of the final two years ago, which Sabalenka won 4-6, 6-3, 6-4.

Sabalenka is the -188 betting favorite at 65.28% implied odds, but my Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina predictions love the underdog’s chances of cashing plus-money tickets.

💰 Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina predictions

Here are my best tennis picks for the 2026 Australian Open women's final, featuring Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina. Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale:

• Pick to win: Elena Rybakina (+162 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
• Best pick: Elena Rybakina Over 12.5 games won (+110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🎾 Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina odds

(Australian Open odds via bet365)

🆚 Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina pick to win

Here's my pick to win the Australian Open women's final, and why I'm choosing Elena Rybakina:

Elena Rybakina ⭐⭐⭐

Aryna Sabalenka has a huge advantage going 2-1 in three Australian Open finals while searching for her fifth hard court Grand Slam title. If she were facing anyone other than Elena Rybakina, she would be my pick to win.

Rybakina has a 6-to-5 head-to-head edge on hard courts against Sabalenka, as she is one of the few women on tour that can match her power from the baseline. Rybakina did squander two chances to end her semifinal match on serve, but showed brilliant resolve to save a set point in the tiebreak.

Rybakina’s most impressive performance in this run was a straight-set quarterfinal victory over Iga Swiatek. In that match, she landed 41% of her first serves in the opening set, but still only conceded one point after winning 93% of her service points. 

Rybakina has been playing her best tennis since dismantling a tough field at the WTA Finals in November, and is a live underdog here.

Best odds: +162 via bet365 | Implied probability: 38.17%

🔥 Best Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina pick

Here's my best bet for Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina:

Rybakina Over 12.5 games won ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Even if Rybakina does not win outright, getting plus-money odds for her to win 13-plus games is a steal. She has won all three of her sets in this tournament that got to a 12th or 13th game, and is 6-0 in her last six such sets overall, which includes a tiebreak win over Sabalenka in the WTA Finals.

In her last six head-to-head meetings with Sabalenka, Rybakina has never lost fewer than three games in a set, and has still won five-plus games in four of the previous seven sets she has lost to the World No. 1. 

As long as Rybakina doesn’t lose in straight sets (Sabalenka has 41.67% implied odds to win 2:0), this wager should cash with ease.

Best odds: +110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 47.62%

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina H2H stats

📺 Australian Open final match info

• When: Saturday, Jan. 31
• Time: 3:30 a.m. ET
• Where: Melbourne, Australia
• How to watch: ESPN
• Favorite: Aryna Sabalenka (-188) via bet365