Alouettes vs. Argonauts Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds: Clash of the Titans in the East
A battle of the two undefeated teams in the East is the highlight of Week 4, and we're offering our top Alouettes vs. Argonauts predictions based on the best CFL odds.
The Montreal Alouettes (3-0) have yet to flinch as they ride the momentum of last year's Grey Cup win into the 2024 season. However, they may finally be tested Friday as they hit the road to take on the Toronto Argonauts (2-0) at BMO Field in Toronto, Ont. at 7:30 p.m. ET (TSN/RDS, CFL+).
Both teams are among the Grey Cup odds favorites thanks to their offenses lighting up the scoreboard every week. Will that continue in Week 4? With both QBs looking like serious CFL Most Outstanding Player odds contenders, I think so.
Alouettes vs. Argonauts prediction
Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best sports betting sites.
Over 51.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Alouettes haven't lost since falling to the Argonauts in back-to-back games on Sept. 9 and Sept. 15, 2023. Since then, they closed out the 2023 regular season with five straight wins before winning all three of their playoff games to take home the Grey Cup. With a 3-0 record to start this season, Jason Maas' squad has won 11 in a row, and it's thanks to their continually clicking offense.
Last week against the Ottawa Redblacks, Montreal flexed its firepower by dropping 47 on a defense that had looked good in its Week 2 win over the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. But clearly QB Cody Fajardo is keeping up the play that earned him Grey Cup MVP last season.
Fajardo has been precise through three games and doesn't even seem to be missing Austin Mack, last year's leading receiver. He's already halfway to as many TDs as he threw last season with seven, and he's only thrown one INT while sitting fourth in the league in passing yards (916).
A big part of Fajardo taking his game up to an All-Star level this season has been the emergence of Tyson Philpot as WR1. He's second in the CFL in receiving yards (340) and already has two games over 140 yards.
With Philpot looking like a Most Outstanding Canadian candidate, Kaion Julien-Grant stepping up as WR2, and Walter Fletcher getting the job done at RB, Montreal has the most well-rounded offense in the league. The Als are second in total yards per game (400.7) and third in points (32.3).
That doesn't bode well for an Argos defense that's allowed at least 27 points in both games. Clearly losing several key defensive starters in the offseason has hurt Toronto - they're allowing the third-most yards (400) and points per game (31.5) - and that's great news for the Over.
Put up your Dukes
The Chad Kelly suspension and loss of A.J. Ouellette in free agency had Argos fans worried that the offense wouldn't be among the best in the league this season. However, their offense hasn't been the problem.
Cameron Dukes has kept it humming and helped lead Toronto to a walk-off win last week against the Edmonton Elks. With Dukes at QB, the Argos are first in points per game (37), QB rating (142), and rushing yards per game (145.5).
Ryan Dinwiddie's offense has been unbelievable, and it's had to be with how atrocious the defense has been. So even though the Alouettes have a vaunted defense, I'm trusting Toronto to score enough for this Over to cash.
Dukes has been efficient and doesn't put the ball in harm's way - he's completing 81.2% of his passes with five TD passes and zero interceptions.
He's also been a threat on the ground when he needs to be, which has helped open things up for Ka'Deem Carey, who is second in the league in rushing (169) despite only playing two games.
Assuming the Argos defense will be as flimsy as a Hespeler hockey stick, Toronto is going to need to score to stay in this one. That's why these -105 odds are a solid value - paying a $9.52 profit on a $10 bet with a 51.22% win probability.
Best odds: -105 via Betway
Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook
Up To $250 First Bet Reset
Terms and conditions apply.
Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.
Alouettes vs. Argonauts first team to score
Argonauts (+100)
Normally, I'd lean towards Montreal scoring first. However, the Argos lost to the Als at BMO Field in last year's East Division Final and will be extra motivated to get an early start. Also, I think the home crowd is going to bring some extra oomph. Between Dukes running the system like a veteran and Carey again looking like an All-Star, Toronto could march down the field on its opening drive.
While kicker Lirim Hajrullahu has yet to attempt a field goal over 40 this season for the Argos, he's 4-for-4 from 30-plus. Hajrullahu is 55-for-65 from 40-plus in his CFL career. That's more reason to back Toronto to score first with these even money odds paying out $20 on a $10 wager.
Alouettes vs. Argonauts odds
Alouettes vs. Argonauts odds via Betway as of Wednesday at 1:44 p.m. ET.
| Teams | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alouettes | -167 | -3 (-111) | Over: 51.5 (-105) |
| Argonauts | +140 | +3 (-111) | Under: 51.5 (-115) |
When these two teams get together, anything can happen - that was proven when Montreal upset Toronto in the playoffs last season. That's why I'm weary of this spread. Without a doubt Montreal has been the best team in the CFL, but they only beat Edmonton by three on the road in Week 2 and Toronto appears to be better than the Elks.
The Als are 2-1 ATS this season and the Argos are 1-1 - if it were a point different in either direction I'd feel more comfortable backing one of these two.
The game total on the other hand may seem high, but getting better odds with this Over and knowing how bad Toronto's defense has been is why I'm confident.
The Argos are 2-0 betting the Over this season and that's as much about their defense as it is their offense. Toronto won't be able to stop a Montreal team coming off a 47-point performance, but it might be able to keep up.
Alouettes vs. Argonauts game info
- When: Friday, June 28 (7:30 p.m. ET)
- Where: BMO Field (Toronto, Ont.)
- How to watch: TSN/RDS, CFL+
- Weather: 66 degrees, 14-mph winds, 20% chance of precipitation
- Favorite: Montreal -3 (-111 via Betway)
Here are our best sports betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
Related Articles
