Yankees vs. Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Sept. 12

Our Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction backs Boston as a home underdog while targeting Luis Gil to go Over his earned runs prop.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 12, 2025 8:54 AM EDT • 6 minute read

Yankees vs. Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: MLB Best Bets for Sept. 12 — Pictured: Boston Red Sox left fielder Jarren Duran (16) Photo by Sergio Estrada via Imagn Images.

The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox begin a massive three-game series at Fenway Park with the two teams separated by just a half-game in the AL wild-card race, and I break down this series opener with my Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction.

New York is the -125 moneyline betting favorite, but I am fading it as part of our MLB picks given Boston’s rest advantage and head-to-head dominance over the Yankees. I am adding a play on Yankees righty Luis Gil’s earned run total, as he will likely be expected to give his team a lengthy outing, given how ineffective the bullpen has been of late.

First pitch for this AL East tilt is set for 7:10 p.m. ET, streaming on Apple TV+.

⚾ Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction

MLB odds subject to change.

Moneyline pick: Red Sox (+105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Run line pick: Red Sox -1.5 (-155 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Over/Under pick: Over 9 (+101 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

📝 Yankees vs. Red Sox preview & best bet

Track the latest MLB scores for line movement and matchup info.

🧦 Red Sox to win (+105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Boston has won eight of the 10 head-to-head meetings with New York this season, including all three at Fenway Park. It also has a big rest advantage with an off-day yesterday, while the Yankees finished their series with the Detroit Tigers. Boston is 13-7 after off-days this season and has won 62.8% of its divisional games, which is why I am backing it with my Yankees vs. Red Sox best bet.

The Yankees come in reeling after being outscored by 14 runs at home in their three-game series against the Tigers. At this point, one cannot have faith in a Yankees bullpen that ranks dead last in the majors in ERA (9.91) from the start of September to yesterday, and 24th in FIP (5.16) in that span.

Meanwhile, Boston’s relievers rank in the top 10 in FIP and WAR in that span. And Aroldis Chapman, who has allowed just two hits in the last 52 at-bats dating back to July 23, is waiting to nail down the ninth inning.

Luis Gil won his only career start at Fenway Park last year after allowing just one run through five innings, but he has not shown the consistency since coming back from injury to back him confidently in this start.

Boston has a 49.75% implied probability to pull the upset based on its +101 odds at the low end of the market. I am squeezing extra value from this wager by backing the +105 odds at BetMGM, where a $10 winning wager would net $10.50 in profits.

💰 Best Yankees vs. Red Sox player prop bet

Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬆️ Luis Gil Over 2.5 earned runs (+105) ⭐⭐⭐

Luis Gil has recorded 16 or fewer outs in five of his last six starts. But with the Under of 15.5 being juiced to -182 (carrying a 64.54% implied probability), I am looking to his earned run total for better value as my best Yankees vs. Red Sox player prop bet.

Gil’s shorter outings have little to do with how ineffective he has been, as he has allowed two or fewer earned runs in all six starts since his season debut. But given New York’s struggles in the bullpen, I expect manager Aaron Boone to leave Gil in longer than usual, which increases the likelihood of him allowing runs.

Gil has struggled with command, walking four or more batters in three of his previous four starts. Even in his Rookie of the Year campaign last season, Gil walked four batters in his lone start at Fenway Park, leading to a troubling 1.600 WHIP.

Boston should take advantage of Gil’s control issues, as it ranks in the top 10 in wOBA and on-base percentage in home games against right-handed pitching since the start of July. And the Red Sox should bring those baserunners home at a high clip, as evidenced by their top-10 slugging percentage in that split as well.

Caesars offers a slightly better price than the +103 available on the low end of the market, and a $10 winning wager at its +105 odds would net $10.50 in profits.

📊 Yankees vs. Red Sox odds: Sept. 12

MLB odds update live in real time.

📈 Yankees vs. Red Sox betting odds analysis

The Red Sox have remained as the +105 moneyline underdog from the opening number at several of the best sports betting sites, with DraftKings on the low end at +101. Boston has won four of Lucas Giolito’s last five starts, so I expect the line to move in the club's favor before first pitch, even if it never becomes the overall favorite.

There has been no movement on the total, remaining firm at 9.0 with a +100/-120 juice on the Over and Under across the best sports betting apps.

🔢 Yankees vs. Red Sox stats

Season stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com.

Yankees (81-65)	Statistic (per game)	Red Sox (81-66)
5.19	Runs	4.94
8.39	Hits	8.73
.248	AVG	.254
.453	SLG	.425
.781	OPS	.749
4.02	ERA	3.71
8.98	K/9	8.34
3.49	BB/9	3.26
1.08	HR/9	1.02

🚑 Yankees vs. Red Sox injuries

📺 Yankees vs. Red Sox game info

When: Friday, Sept. 12
First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Where: Fenway Park (Boston)
How to watch: Apple TV+

💡 Expert MLB predictions today

❓ Yankees vs. Red Sox FAQs

Who is favored to win Yankees vs. Red Sox?

The Yankees are the -125 betting favorite to beat the Red Sox on the road today.

What is the run line for Yankees vs. Red Sox?

New York’s -1.5 odds range from +130 to +136, while Boston’s +1.5 odds are at -164 on the high end of the market.

What is the Over/Under for Yankees vs. Red Sox?

The O/U is at 9.0 runs across the market, and it’s juiced to +100 for the Over and -120 for the Under.

What are the best bets for Yankees vs. Red Sox?

My Yankees vs. Red Sox best bets back Boston (+105) to win as a home underdog and for Luis Gil Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (+105).

When is the Yankees vs. Red Sox game?

The Yankees vs. Red Sox first pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET, streaming on Apple TV+.

How do baseball odds work?

When betting on MLB, the run line shows how many runs the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -1.5 must win by two or more runs to cover the run line, while an underdog at +1.5 must win outright or lose by one run to cover the run line.

Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total of runs will be higher or lower than the set number.

You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike leans on his NFL experience and always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”